Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Customs tax service wildcard for MyEG

Written by Insider Asia
Friday, 04 March 2011 11:21

MyEG Services is Malaysia’s dominant e-services player, providing a wide range of government-to-citizen (G2C) services.

The company, which started with a concession to provide drivers’ licence theory tests for the Road Transport Department (JPJ), has expanded its portfolio to offer additional services from JPJ and other government agencies. It now offers 19 services from seven service suppliers. Apart from an online presence, MyEG also has a network of 65 e-service centres nationwide.

The company’s earnings are poised to grow rapidly in the next few years, driven by (1) continued growth in the road tax renewal service, (2) increasing network, coverage and market share, with its expanding number of e-service centres, and (3) new products and services, the most important being the immigration and customs service tax monitoring initiatives.

MyEG is now embarking on a new phase of growth as it expands its services to include those from the Immigration Department (for maid and foreign workers’ annual permit renewal), and most significantly, a customs tax-monitoring service with the Royal Malaysian Customs.

Under the customs tax monitoring scheme, MyEG has a 40% stake in a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that will link up point-of-sales (POS) terminals of businesses that are subject to customs’ service taxes, such as restaurants and entertainment outlets.

The SPV will spend RM100 million on capex, but will receive a 20% share of the taxes that were previously found to be under-declared, with the lion’s share of 80% going to the government.

This will give MyEG a potentially large wildcard from FY June 2013 onwards. However, it is too preliminary to assess at this juncture, as much depends on how much tax was under-declared in the first place. The service will also be compatible with a GST regime that is likely to be implemented at a later stage, giving the company a potentially wider earnings base.

Another key earnings driver will be the immigration services, where MyEG will offer online foreign worker permit renewals, potentially tapping a two million people market.

In the near term, the company’s earnings will continue to be driven by the road tax renewal services which are growing rapidly. The service currently attracts over 5,000 road tax renewals a day, with an estimated 30% market share. The drivers’ licence theory tests and e-insolvency searches, meanwhile, will provide steady income.

We expect net profit to rise by 20.3% to RM25.3 million in FY11 and 20.4% to RM30.5 million in FY12, assuming no contribution from the customs tax service in FY11-12.

At 74.5 sen, its shares are trading at P/E multiples of 17.7 times FY11 and 14.7 times FY12 earnings. While these P/E valuations do not look very attractive after last year’s strong price rally, they are still reasonable relative to their double-digit strong growth, high return on equity of over 24% and net profit margin of above 30%.

More attractive is the ability for earnings to surprise on the upside from FY12 onwards due to the customs tax monitoring, immigration and other services in the pipeline.

The underlying market for MyEG’s services is very large, with relatively resilient and recurring demand. Demand is also being supported by the growing popularity of online services and transactions for convenience and cost reasons.

Road tax renewal and JPJ service

Launched in April 2008, the road tax renewal service has been the main driver of MyEG’s growth over the last two to three years, with the original drivers’ licence theory tests and insolvency search services providing stable income.

The service is likely to continue seeing strong growth in the near term, as it is still rapidly gaining market share and acceptance after a heavy advertising and brand-building exercise.

MyEG has two main business models for the road tax renewal service — an online and a kiosk-based one, both of which have been very well-received.

For the kiosk-based service, MyEG has signed up a number of financial institutions and placed a kiosk in selected branches of the financial institutions, as well as its own service centres. These kiosks will provide MyEG with an additional physical network and customer base.

We understand the online service currently attracts over 5,000 transactions per day, a significant increase from 3,000 per day a year ago. Growth has been strong due to growing customer acceptance, the ease and convenience of the online service, reasonable charges and heavy advertising.

We understand MyEG now has a market share of about 30% of total road tax transactions for passenger cars issued daily. The number of ancillary motor insurance premiums sold daily has also doubled from about 150 to over 200 in the past year.

The management is optimistic of continued strong growth for the service in the next two years, before it reaches saturation point. The company has been seeing its transaction volume growing a robust 8% month-on-month in the last few months. Once the business matures, MyEG expects more steady income and growth to be driven by the immigration and customs initiatives.

The market for road tax renewal services is supported by a large number of vehicles and drivers, with road taxes that need to be renewed annually, annual insurance premiums and drivers’ licences renewal due every five years. Other JPJ services in the pipeline include e-application of vehicle registration numbers and online vehicle ownership transfer.

Immigration services
MyEG soft-launched its new e-immigration service in April 2010. This involves the online renewal of foreign workers’ permits. At present, the service caters for domestic maids, but will be extended to cover other foreign workers at a later stage.

Once the service is fully in place, employers of foreign workers — such as factories, businesses and households (for domestic maids) can apply for the renewal of their foreign workers’ permits online, hassle-free and at minimal costs. Most renewals are currently undertaken by agencies, who charge high fees of around RM200 per renewal, especially for domestic maids.

MyEG is offering a cost-effective solution, charging RM50 per transaction, excluding the government levies. We understand the specially printed permits will be personally delivered to the customers’ homes or offices by MyEG’s personnel team, who will affix it to the workers’ passports for security reasons.

With an estimated two million foreign workers in Malaysia, of whom about 250,000 are domestic maids, the potential for this service is large — and recurring. For the domestic maid permit renewal service, we understand MyEG currently has about 70-80 cases a day. Once the service is expanded to cover other workers, we expect volume to increase significantly.

Customs tax monitoring

The Customs tax monitoring service, in conjunction with the Royal Malaysian Customs, will be the most significant of the new services proposed.

This involves linking up POS terminals of businesses that are subject to customs’ sales and service tax (such as restaurants and entertainment outlets) to minimise under-declaration of taxes and administrative paper work.

The service will be undertaken via a SPV, where MyEG will hold a 40% share and several other private parties the balance.

The SPV will undertake the programme and install a software at each POS terminal for the link-up — at the SPV’s cost. We understand the cost is as much as RM5,000 per full system terminal, for those without compatible POS terminals. In return, the SPV will receive a share of the additional service and sales taxes collected.

Earnings visibility for the new service is uncertain at this juncture, as it depends on how much sales and service taxes were “under-declared” in the past, which cannot be ascertained. According to management, the sharing ratios between the government and the SPV are 80% and 20%, respectively, of the under-declared taxes, with a base growth imputed.

The potential market is large. We understand the service tax base is about RM4 billion in 2010, of which about RM2 billion is for category C and D businesses, namely restaurant and entertainment outlets. The remaining RM2 billion is from professional services as well as gaming.

Equally though, it is a high risk-high return investment on the part of the SPV, given the sizable capex needs. Total capex is estimated at RM100 million for the first phase, of which RM20 million has been spent. Substantially more may be needed for the later stages and when GST is eventually implemented.

The SPV plans to start with a pilot test phase in May 2011, which will continue until the end of the year, with a full rollout of the service in Jan 2012. The pilot phase will involve some 2,500 premises under licence categories C and D, while the actual rollout will capture about 15,000 outlets under these two categories.

Its infrastructure is compatible with a goods and services tax (GST) system as it is essentially a POS system to capture the value of sales. With the likely implementation of GST at a later stage, the scope of the SPV’s business should expand as most businesses will be captured under the GST system, unlike the current service tax regime, which focuses on selected businesses.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 4, 2011.

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