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Monday, December 14, 2009

●冷眼 - 分享集:能见底就不危险

分享集:能见底就不危险
2009/12/12 11:54:08 AM
●冷眼

迪拜国营企业迪拜世界所欠590亿美元(2000亿令吉)债务中,无法依期摊还其中到期的35亿美元(119亿令吉),全球金融界稍微震颤,深恐触发另一场金融海啸,各国股市应声而跌,担心受到拖累。

大部份人都无法肯定迪拜效应会不会引爆另一场经济灾难,大家担心在复原中的世界经济,经不起打击而再次摔倒。

不引发另一场金融海啸

我在阅读了许多资料及分析文章后,所得到的结论是:迪拜事件不会引发另一场金融海啸。

理由是:凡是能够见底的危机,就有办法挽救,就不会扩大成不可收拾的灾难。

美国次贷引发的金融海啸之所以一发不可收拾,是因为“衍生产品”被滥用,一层一层的滥发“衍生产品”,使原本的价值,被吹涨至数十倍於原值的泡沫,大到甚至连美国政府都摸不清这个洞有多大多深,所涉及的范围又有多广,见不到底就无法找出对策,这就危险--极度危险。

衍生产品被滥用

幸亏美国财力深厚,再加上世界经济大国不约而同的出手施救,这才使全球避过了另一场经济大萧条。

我敢肯定的说,如果次级房贷没有被利用来“制造”衍生产品的话,金融海啸绝对不会发生。

因为银行所发出的房屋贷款是有账可查,而且是在美国金融体系之内的,在房屋价格下跌后,银行可以算出数目有多大,也就是看得到房贷这个洞有多深,能够见到底,就知道需要多少的款项来填补,问题就不难解决,唯“衍生产品”的滥发,使此洞深不见底,难怪连美国政府都束手无策。

1997年东南亚的货币危机是危险的,同样的道理,是因为受攻击货币的范围和数量,超越国界,故使各国政府如老鼠拖曳,无从下手施救。

幸亏东南亚各国领袖都能当机立断,投下猛药,才使此场危机平息下来。

无论如何,东南亚货币危机,受害的只是东南亚国家,并未打击世界经济强国,故其灾情不如次贷引发的金融海啸那么严重。

迪拜事件仅引发信心危机

在金融海啸期间,曾有经济学家预测信用卡将引发另一场金融海啸,原因是银行被信用卡持有人所拖欠的数目庞大无比,银行将承受不了烂账的打击。

我当时就认为这是杞人忧天,我认定信用卡不会引发另一场金融海啸,理由是信用卡持有人欠银行多少钱,银行有账可查,因此银行心里有数,既然知道确实数目,就有办法应付。所以,我当时就认定不会出问题,如今海啸雨过天晴,再也没人提起信用卡的欠款,可见当时经济学家是夸大其词,危言耸听。

我一向对经济学家的预言存疑,原因是在80年代当我担任南洋商报经济组主任的时候,对於经济大事都亲自出马,带领经济组记者出席采访,这些经济学家都大胆的对经济动向作出预测,1年之后,我检讨他们的预测,发现多数不准确,所以,我对经济学家,尤其是备受注目的权威经济学家的预测,一向持着保留的态度,数十年跟踪经济发展所得到的结论是:经济学家的预言,只可作为参考,不可尽信。

尤其是在股票投资方面,如果你根据经济学家的预言,作出投资决定的话,你很难在股市赚钱。今年2、3月,当经济和股市触底时,经济学家几乎都异口同声地说“最坏的时刻尚未到”,结果听信他们的预言的投者,错过了一次最佳的投资机会。

结论是:可以见底的危机并不危险,只有深不见底的危机才危险。迪拜的底既然是590亿美元,而且短期出现问题的只不过35亿美元,这个洞浅得很,根本不可能引起金融海啸。

迪拜事件最多只会引发信心危机,而这个危机也将是短暂的,起不了骨牌效应。

[转贴] 为了子孙后代,为了拯救世界,请大排大放二氧化碳

西方发达国家在经济发展到一定程度后,能源需求会饱和,二氧化碳排放则由于技术的提高而自然下降,不限制也会下降,所以他们觉得自己亏了,要求大家都限制二氧化碳排放。欧洲发达国家早在90年代初就已经开始自然减排,在二氧化碳减排问题上要求最强烈的法国,它的煤早在上世纪就挖完了,所以现在其能源70% 来源于核电,这个根本就不放二氧化碳,这是他们最积极的原因,美国在布什执政之初推翻承诺,拒签京都协议,但到了奥巴马时期,美国政策却来了个180度大转弯,,布什执政之初美国的 CO2排放在快速增加,所以美国参议院99:0否决CO2减排协定,但到了布什后期,情况发生了变化,美国从2005年开始,CO2排放开始下降,这个科学事实决定美国政策的转向,到 2007年布什以绿色环保为名发展生物乙醇项目。而向来打环保旗号的民主党奥巴马更没有不减排放的理由。
  
  同时限制二氧化碳排放也等同于限制化石能源的使用。全球石油煤等化石燃料储藏量有限,这些有限的资源中国用了美欧就没得用,限制二氧化碳排放,就会增加能源使用的成本,从而限制正在快速工业化的中国等发展中国家的成长速度,有利于西方发达国家多享受一段时间的廉价能源的供应。同时发达国家可以以此为名对中国征收碳关税,从而在贸易上取得主动地位,最近在二氧化碳减排问题上最积极的法国首先宣布对中国征收碳关税。因此西方在二氧化碳减排上的炒作是醉翁之意不在酒,主要是为其利益而进行的炒作。
  
  在本人前面的文章《二氧化碳伪科学骗局---欧美压制中国经济发展的紧箍咒》里我们已经清楚说明以下两点:
  1. 在大气层中,二氧化碳对于温室效应的总贡献仅仅3.62%, 对温室效应作出主要贡献的是水蒸气, 其贡献占95%。而水蒸气主要是大自然产生的,因此人对全球温度的影响非常有限,人造二氧化碳不是导致全球升温的魔鬼。
  2. 地球的温度主要是太阳的周期性活动造成的,地球温度在历史上一直在12-23度间震荡,现在的地球平均温度仅13度,处于历史较低值,温度向平均值回归非常正常,就算今后我们一克二氧化碳不放,地球温度也会上升,人能做的只是了解这个自然规律,做出相应政策调整,而不是与地球太阳战斗。
  然而有些人认为环保毕竟是好的,减排二氧化碳对子孙后代有好处,其实,这种中庸完全错了,就如小巷里卖假鞋的,1000块卖一双假鞋,你不去抓卖假鞋的坐牢,而是去跟其讨价还价,200块买了那假鞋,你以为你中庸了正确了,却不知你的智慧也就是被卖假鞋的小贩骗的程度,限制排放SO2和煤尘等污染物完全正确,但二氧化碳不是污染物,发展经济跟排放二氧化碳不是对立的,将其对立起来是完全错误的逻辑。下面本人说说排放二氧化碳的全球人类好处。
  
  1. 二氧化碳是植物生长所必需的物质
  空气中的二氧化碳浓度通常只有0.038%,不是总能充分满足植物需要。当二氧化碳浓度增加一倍时农作物的产量可以增高40%到130%。在中国农村的大棚里二氧化碳早已用来当作气肥施用,因此实际上二氧化碳浓度增高有利于缓解中国紧张的粮食供应,也有利于中国森林的生长,可以说二氧化碳放得越多,世界就会变得越绿。
  表1不同植物光合作用的差异及提高二氧化碳浓度一倍使产量增加的百分数
  植物-----------正常CO2水平下CO2固定率---提高CO2水平时的增产量
  ------------------(毫克/分米2/小时)-----------(%)
  
  玉米、粒用高粱、甘蔗-----65-75-----------------100
  水稻---------------------40-75-----------------135
  向日葵-------------------50-65-----------------130
  棉花---------------------40-50-----------------100
  大豆、甜菜---------------30-40------------------56
  燕麦、小麦、大麦---------30-35------------------66
  烟草---------------------20-25------------------67
  番茄、黄瓜、莴苣---------20-25------------------50
  树木、葡萄、观赏花卉、柑橘10-20-----------------40
  
  资料来源:Witter. Proc. Agr. Res. Inst. 21st Annu. Meet., pp. 69-86 (1973).
  
  2. 排放二氧化碳是恢复大气原有的平衡,是正在拯救世界
  
  现在二氧化碳浓度过低才是以前地球生物发展得过了头的结果,4亿年前地球上的二氧化碳浓度比现在高20-30倍,非常有利于植物生长,那时的植物远远比现在要高大。基本上长到了植物生长高度的极限。也只有如此规模的植物群,在地壳变迁,埋在地下之后,才会形成几十米厚的连续煤层,才会造就现在地下丰富的煤炭资源。在在距今两亿5千年到一亿一千多万年恐龙生活的年代,二氧化碳浓度也比现在高五倍,由此才养活了非常茂盛的植物,养育了一批大型的食草类恐龙。整个地球绿意葱葱、生机盎然。但这些这些植物吸收的二氧化碳并未完全回归大气,而是在植物死亡后被埋在了地下,变成了石油煤和天然气,由此导致二氧化碳在大气中的浓度越来越少,在大约一亿一千万年前二氧化碳浓度逐渐下降,植物没有足够的碳用于光合作用,地球上植物产量急骤下跌,然而,地球温度却并未如全球暖化论者说的那样随二氧化碳浓度下降而下降,而是反过来,在几乎同时因太阳活动的变化而逐渐升高,动物在温度高时新陈代谢速度增加,需要的食物量也增加,但靠吸收二氧化碳进行光合作用的植物却吸收不到二氧化碳,到六千五百万年左右,二氧化碳的含量下降到低值。灾难发生了,首先无法适应的是植物。植物对自然界作出的反应是有限的,尽管它们努力地吸入二氧化碳,但仍不足以吸入足够的二氧化碳来支撑其庞大的躯体、厚重的枝叶。它们撑不住了。枝叶开始凋落,最终倒了下去。整个灾难过程持续了几千万年,植物不断地倒下,然后是大型食草恐龙、大型食肉恐龙。
  
  恐龙的灭绝可能跟当时地球生物圈缺乏一种机制有关,这种机制可以把埋入地下的碳重新放回大气,当时没这种机制,所以恐龙灭绝了,现在我们辛辛苦苦地深入地下,把亿万年前植物弄到地底的煤又返还大气,完成大自然需要的循环,正是恢复大气原有的平衡, 使森林和粮食得以恢复生长,不是在毁灭而是正在拯救世界!
  
  3. 提高二氧化碳浓度有利于发展生物能源
  
  石油是现代工业的血液。美国人均用油量最高达每年3 吨,而中国现在只有300公斤。仅为美国的十分之一。中国要赶上美国的生活水平,人均能耗提高是必然的,不可避免的。因此中印占世界三分之一人口的两个国家能源需求会在相当长时间内直线上涨。到2030年中国石油需求将增加一倍,从现在的3亿多吨增加到6亿多吨。若世界石油需求保持1.8%的增长率的话,到 2030年整个世界石油需求则增加约37%到59亿吨。
  
  然而化石燃料的供给却已经接近峰值,历史表明化石燃料的发现和开采符合胡伯石油峰理论。胡伯是壳牌石油公司的地球物理学家。1949年,胡伯在世界最高级科学刊物SCIENCE上发文提出世界化石能源生产迟早会到达顶峰。(M. King Hubbert, "Energy from Fossil Fuels", Science,vol. 109, pp. 103-109, February 4, 1949),1956 年胡伯提出石油探测的钟形曲线理论。并与美国地质调查局(USGS)合作,分析并预测了美国的石油生产趋势。其预测结果显示,美国本土的石油生产将在 1966年至1971年达到高峰期,然后将持续递减。当时没多少人相信其理论,可后来人们发现其预测非常准确,美国石油生产确实在1971年达到峰值,随后逐渐下降。若把Hubbert理论用于世界石油预测中,那么世界石油应在 2006-2008年间到达峰值,实际上石油峰可能已经到来,全球最大的五大石油商2005 年所生产的原油都低于它们在2004年的生产量,与此同时,北海的原油产量正在迅速降低,在未来七年中,北海原油产量将减少一半。全球约100个石油生产国中有64个国家已经超过生产峰值点,正在一条向下的曲线上运行。虽然随着俄罗斯、里海沿岸地区和伊拉克的石油产量稳步上升,以及像深海原油和油沙这样的新资源的接踵出现,世界可能会出现一次小型的供应过剩,但总的趋势却是明确无误的。全球石油产出将在2010年到2015年或者2020年之间开始下滑。尽管石油产业越来越擅长于从日益恶化的环境中开采石油,世界上已经有1/4个世纪的时间在一年中新发现的石油少于实际生产的石油。从90年代开始,新的石油探明量锐减,平均每年的探明量约为140亿桶,只有80年代平均量的50%。与此同时,消耗量每年在220亿到250亿桶之间,首次出现了探明量低于消耗量的情况。2000年全球发现了16个大型油田,产量超过5亿桶——而2003年没有发现一座油田。科学家推测,到本世纪30年代,每年的石油探明量大约为30亿桶,而按照目前的石油消耗量增长趋势,那时的年消耗量将达400亿桶以上。
  
  考虑到自1970年以来全球石油消费量已经翻番,从每天4200万桶增长到每天8600万桶,这给我们提出了一个严峻的挑战。按照目前的消耗速度,为了维持全球产出的增长势头,在未来10年中,每天将需要增加500万桶石油产出。但从2005年到2006年石油产量增加得很少. 2007年世界石油总产量更是令人震惊地下跌了0.2%。让人感到世界石油峰再次准确地如学者所预言的到来。这种危机涉及到工业文明的存亡,当涉及到人类生存的基本物质出现重大变化时,社会重大冲突不可避免。历史上人类已经为石油进行了至少7次大的战争。石油峰到来造成世界能源短缺后,今后不知会出现什么情况。
  
  那么世界有没有替代能源?有,生物能源是一种选择。然而,由于土地面积有限,目前的农业用地基本上用于粮食生产了,生物燃料的产量远远满足不了工业燃料需求,07年美国开始立法生产生物乙醇,结果立刻导致粮价大涨,受到全球谴责。
  可是如果二氧化碳浓度恢复到恐龙时代的一半,即接近0.1%,那么农作物产量提高一倍,全球就能腾出大量土地生产生物燃料,从而解决现在难以解决的能源问题。 这就避免了今后争夺能源二毁灭人类的战争。
  
  结论:二氧化碳放得越多,世界就会变得越绿。为了子孙后代,为了拯救世界,请大排大放二氧化碳。

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

神 奇 的 26 %

转载 klse8K 的 ebook
每年26%,就是平均3年一番,大家说有可能吗?

2001-04-13 神 奇 的 26 %

如 果 今 天 你 投 资 1.00 零 吉 买 进 一 只 股 , 明 年 的 今 天 它 的 价 钱 变 成 1.26 零 吉 , 你 会 满 意 吗 ?

如 果 你 是 个 投 机 者 , 你 可 能 不 会 满 意 。
你 会 想 :
一 年 的 时 间 ?太 慢 了 !
如 果 是 一 个 月 还 差 不 多 !

如 果 你 是 个 投 资 者 , 你 应 该 满 意 了 。
你 会 想 :
一 年 赚 26 巴 仙 ? 太 好 了 !
希 望 每 年 都 能 够 如 此 !

我 的 投 资 目 标 就 是 每 年 平 均 赚 26 巴 仙 。

为 什 么 是 26 巴 仙 ?
因 为 我 发 觉 到 这 26 % 实 在 是 太 神 奇 了 !

如 果 一 年 成 长 26 巴 仙 , 今 天 的 1 万 零 吉 :
三 年 后 就 变 成 了 2 万 零 吉 !
十 年 后 就 变 成 了 10 万 零 吉 !
换 句 话 说 : 十 年 就 加 一 个 零 !

十 年 加 一 个 零 , 二 十 年 就 要 加 两 个 零 。
今 天 的 1 万 零 吉 , 再 加 两 个 零 就 是 100 万 了 !

所 以 只 要 每 年 赚 取 26 % ,1 万 零 吉 的 投 资 , 经 过 20 年 就 能 够 变 成 100 万 了 !
而 且 这 1 万 零 吉 的 投 资 只 是 一 次 过 , 不 是 每 年 都 加 注 !
这 就 是 复 利 的 奥 妙 !

详 解 如 下 :

YR Total
0 10000
1 12600
2 15876
3 20004
4 25205
5 31758
6 40015
7 50419
8 63528
9 80045
10 100857
11 127080
12 160120
13 201752
14 254207
15 320301
16 403579
17 508510
18 640722
19 807310
20 1017211


当 然 在 实 战 的 股 票 市 场 上 , 我 们 不 能 一 帆 风 顺 的 每 年 都 赚 26 巴 仙 。
但 是 根 据 我 本 身 的 实 战 经 验 , 平 均 每 年 26 巴 仙 是 不 难 的 。 至 少 我 已 经 做 到 了 !
过 去 如 此 。 希 望 将 来 也 是 如 此 。

在 一 个 大 牛 市 里 一 年 赚 取 300 % 是 等 闲 事 ! 只 要 我 们 有 那 个 胆 量 ! 不 怕 赢 !

举 个 例 子 :
1.00 零 吉 的 股 票 变 成 4.00 零 吉 就 是 赚 了 300 %。
买 进 1.00 零 吉 的 股 票 直 到 4.00 零 吉 才 卖 出 , 需 要 的 是 胆 量 , 不 怕 赢 的 胆 量 !
实 战 中 很 多 人 都 不 能 等 这 样 久 , 能 忍 到 2.00 零 吉 已 经 是 少 见 的 了 ! 他 们 没 有 胆 量 , 赢 都 怕 !

在 一 个 大 熊 市 里 , 一 年 亏 掉 75 % 也 是 等 闲 事 ! 只 要 我 们 有 那 个 胆 量 ! 不 怕 输 !

举 个 例 子 :
4.00 零 吉 的 股 票 变 成 1.00 零 吉 就 是 亏 了 75 %。
买 进 4.00 零 吉 的 股 票 直 到 1.00 零 吉 才 卖 出 , 需 要 的 是 胆 量 , 不 怕 输 的 胆 量 !
实 战 中 很 多 人 都 能 够 忍 这 样 久 , 能 忍 痛 在 2.00 零 吉 卖 出 者 是 少 之 又 少 ! 他 们 有 胆 量 , 输 都 不 怕!

股 市 投 资 就 要 接 受 惊 涛 骇 浪 , 给 你 赢 了 300 % , 再 给 你 输 个 75 % , 你 还 是 原 地 跑 步 。
所 以 我 们 一 定 要 懂 得 何 时 是 大 牛 市 , 何 时 是 大 熊 市 。

大 牛 市 买 进 , 大 熊 市 卖 出 才 有 可 能 亏 75 % 。
大 熊 市 买 进 , 大 牛 市 卖 出 才 有 可 能 赚 300 % 。

那 么 现 在 是 什 么 市 ?
当 然 是 大 熊 市 !

所 以 现 在 就 是 最 佳 的 投 资 时 刻 , 想 要 赢 个 300 % 就 要 选 对 股 !
不 会 选 股 也 是 徒 然 !

那 么 要 买 什 么 股 呢 ?
7.00 零 吉 的 EON 变 成 28.00 零 吉 就 是 300 %!
1.00 零 吉 的 DRB-HICOM 变 成 4.00 也 是 300 %!

相 信 我 !现 在 就 是 最 佳 的 投 资 时 刻 , 想 要 每 年 赚 平 均 的 26 巴 仙 , 就 拿 出 勇 气 来 !
让 我 们 先 把 握 机 会 , 先 赚 个 300 % 。

当 然 ,我 们 的 目 标 还 是 每 年 平 均 26 巴 仙 !
神 奇 的 26 巴 仙 !
用 20 年 的 时 间 把 1 万 变 100 万 !

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Some nice article

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2009/11/nasties-of-hot-money-in-asia.html

http://www.malaysiakini.com/columns/118160

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

3 months Ago ,JT INTERNATIONAL BERHAD MAINTAINS MARKET SHARE GAINS

JT INTERNATIONAL BERHAD MAINTAINS MARKET SHARE GAINS

JT International Berhad’s Second Quarter Financial Results

For The Year Ending 31st December 2009

Second Quarter Results For Period Under Review

JT International Berhad registered consolidated revenue of RM288.9 million for the second quarter ended 30th June 2009, a 10.0% increase as compared with RM262.7 million achieved in the corresponding quarter last year. The increase in revenue was attributed to higher cigarette prices offset partially by lower sales volume. The Group also registered profit before tax of RM40.8 million, a 2.9% increase as compared with RM39.6 million achieved in the corresponding quarter last year due to higher cigarette prices and lower marketing expenditure, offset by lower sales volume and lower interest income.

First Half Results For Period Under Review

For the first half-year ended 30th June 2009, the Group posted consolidated revenue of RM580.4 million and profit before tax of RM85.7 million, a 12.9% and 4.8% increase as compared with revenue of RM514.0 million and profit before tax of RM81.7 million respectively achieved in the corresponding period in 2008. The increase in revenue and profit before tax was mainly driven by the factors mentioned above. JT International Berhad managed to improve its performance, strengthening its market share to 18.3% from 17.1% registered during the same period last year (source: AC Nielsen Retail Audit report). This growth was driven primarily by Value segment leader Winston, which increased its market share to 9.4% from 8.2% registered during the same period last year.

Tobacco Industry Outlook

In the first half-year ended 30th June 2009, overall tobacco industry volume – as measured by the Confederation of Malaysian Tobacco Manufacturers – declined 11.7% against the same period last year. This decrease was driven in part by the challenging economic conditions, which continues to accelerate the growth of extremely low priced cigarettes and illegal cigarettes.

The continued growth of illegal cigarettes will exert further negative pressure on the sales volume of the legitimate cigarette manufacturers. Current estimates are that in early 2009, as many as one in every three cigarette packets sold in Malaysia is illegal. JT International Berhad will continue to work closely with the Government on this very serious issue in order to curb the growth of illegal cigarettes. Notwithstanding, JT International Berhad is encouraged by the increased enforcement by various Government agencies to combat this serious threat, and will continue to cooperate fully with the authorities in this ongoing fight against the illegal cigarette trade.

One of the key factors driving the growth of illegal cigarettes is high taxation, and it is hoped that the Government will take this into account and give due consideration to the tobacco industry’s recommendations for a moderate and structured tax increase policy in the future.

Despite the anticipated challenges ahead, JT International Berhad is committed to maintain its competitiveness and to deliver a satisfactory overall performance for the current financial year through continued effective investment behind its global flagship brands: Winston, Mild Seven and Camel.

Ends.

JTI – Japan Tobacco International - is a subsidiary of Japan Tobacco Inc. (JT), the world’s third largest international manufacturer of tobacco products. JTI produces three of the top five worldwide cigarette brands: Winston, Mild Seven and Camel. Other international brands include Silk Cut, Sobranie of London, Glamour and LD. With headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and net sales of USD 10.6 billion in the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008, JTI has 23,000 employees and operations in 120 countries. JT International Berhad is the Malaysian arm of Japan Tobacco International.

For further information, please contact:

Shareen Rahmat

Corporate Affairs

JT International Berhad

Tel: 03 - 2094 9011

Fax: 03 - 2095 0049

Email: corporateaffairs.malaysia@jti.com


JT INTERNATIONAL BERHAD CONTINUES TO GROW ITS MARKET SHARE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT INDUSTRY DECLINE

JT INTERNATIONAL BERHAD CONTINUES TO GROW ITS MARKET SHARE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT INDUSTRY DECLINE


JT International Berhad’s Third Quarter Financial Results

For The Year Ending 31st December 2009

Third Quarter Results For Period Under Review

JT International Berhad registered consolidated revenue of RM276.5 million for the third quarter ended 30th September 2009, as compared with RM271.3 million achieved in the corresponding quarter last year. The marginal increase in revenue was attributed to higher cigarette prices offset by lower sales volume. Profit before tax in the current quarter was lower at RM36.1 million compared with RM40.1 million achieved in the corresponding quarter last year; the decrease was driven by lower sales volume and lower interest income offset partially by higher cigarette prices and lower marketing expenditure.

First Nine-Month Results For Period Under Review

For the nine-month period ended 30th September 2009, the Group posted consolidated revenue of RM856.9 million as compared with revenue of RM785.3 million achieved in the corresponding period in 2008. Profit before tax registered RM121.8 million, as compared with RM121.9 million achieved in the corresponding period in 2008. The increase in revenue was driven by the same factors mentioned above.

Tobacco Industry Operating Environment

In the nine-month period ended 30th September 2009, overall tobacco industry volume, as measured by the Confederation of Malaysian Tobacco Manufacturers, declined by 13.9% against the same period last year. This decrease was driven in part by the challenging economic conditions, which continues to accelerate the growth of the extremely low priced cigarettes and illegal cigarettes. Despite the industry volume decline, JT International Berhad continued to improve its performance, further growing its market share to 18.5% from 17.4% registered during the same period last year (source: AC Nielsen Retail Audit report). This good market share growth was driven primarily by Value Segment leader Winston, which increased its market share to an all time high of 9.7% from 8.4% registered during the same period last year.

Tobacco Industry Outlook

The operating environment for the tobacco industry is expected to remain very challenging in the last quarter of 2009. The continued high level of illicit cigarettes will exert further negative pressure on the sales volume of the legitimate cigarette manufacturers. A recent research survey, conducted by the Confederation of Malaysian Tobacco Manufacturers, showed that 36.7% of cigarettes sold in Malaysia are illegal as compared to 25.7% in 2008. Notwithstanding this, JT International Berhad is encouraged by the increased enforcement by various Government agencies to combat this serious threat, and will continue to work closely with the authorities in this ongoing fight against the illicit cigarette trade.

One of the key factors driving the growth of illicit cigarettes is high taxation. JT International Berhad is encouraged by the Government’s decision to impose a more moderate excise tax increase of RM10 per 1000 sticks on October 1, 2009, as compared with an increase of RM30 per 1000 sticks in the last two consecutive years. JT International Berhad is also encouraged by the recent Government announcement during the Federal Budget to allocate higher expenditure to enhance enforcement capabilities.

Despite the anticipated challenges ahead, JT International Berhad is committed to maintain its competitiveness and to deliver a satisfactory overall performance for the current financial year through continued effective investment behind its global flagship brands: Winston, Mild Seven and Camel.


Ends.

JTI – Japan Tobacco International - is a subsidiary of Japan Tobacco Inc. (JT), the world’s third largest international manufacturer of tobacco products. JTI produces three of the top five worldwide cigarette brands: Winston, Mild Seven and Camel. Other international brands include Silk Cut, Sobranie of London, Glamour and LD. With headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, and net sales of USD 10.6 billion in the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008, JTI has 23,000 employees and operations in 120 countries. JT International Berhad is the Malaysian arm of Japan Tobacco International.


For further information, please contact:

Shareen Rahmat

Corporate Affairs

JT International Berhad

Tel: 03 - 2094 9011

Fax: 03 - 2095 0049

Email: corporateaffairs.malaysia@jti.com

Monday, November 23, 2009

Harta eps record.

Harta eps 2008 = 31.94 sen
Harta eps 2009 = 34.88 sen

2010 - 1Q -EPS = 10.88 sen
2010 - 2Q -EPS = 13.66 sen
2010 - 3Q -EPS = ? sen
2010 - 4Q -EPS = ? sen
2010 full year estimate = 49 sen

如果用我预测少一点,eps 40sen 来算 今天5.72 闭市 PE = 14.30,我个人觉得合理价了
反观 topglove 2009 eps = 57 sen,今天9.11 闭市 PE = 16
如果用 topglove PE 16 评估 Harta eps 49sen = rm7.80 ,那我就发达了

Sunday, November 15, 2009

向Swisscash索回3100萬 受害人明年初獲退款

http://administrator-swisscash.com.my/


做了一点整理(红字),希望可以帮助到大家。

吉隆坡13日訊)大馬證券監督委員會(SC)宣佈,針對「Swisscash」網絡欺詐案,證監會成功從兩名欺詐案的答辯人取回逾3100萬令吉的金額,並將在明年初開始分階段還給身份被確認的欺詐案受害者。

證監會將從速委任索償金的行政管理人,並向未申請索償金的受害者,發出追討資金程序的通知,經過審核之後,才能夠發放償金。基本上,受害者需要有證明文件,並且未涉及有關欺詐案的招攬行動,並且是在證監會發出警告之前進行投資,以及符合特定條件,才有資格索償。

證監會主席丹斯里查麗娜安華表示,考慮到Swisscash欺詐案的牽涉範圍及規模龐大的支出,證監會認為,此次的索償行動可說是歷史性的里程碑。目前為止,證監會共接獲大約3000人在這項網絡投資欺詐案中蒙受損失的投訴。

明年初派發第一批付款

據瞭解,兩名答辯人-艾伯特李基憲和阿米爾哈山,於11月6日同意向證監會支付逾3100萬令吉,作為賠償金。查麗娜是在出席Swisscash網絡欺詐案解決方案的記者會時,透露有關案件的進展。

她說,儘管證監會希望儘快派發索償金,但仍需循序漸進,包括向法院提呈申請索償金的準則、委任行政管理人、在報章刊登廣告等。不過,證監會估計將在2010年初,派發第一批付款。

行政管理人將負責索償金的申請程序,並決定投資者是否符合索償資格。證監會將在近期內,向尚未申請索償金的受害者,發出追討資金程序的通知。

查麗娜表示:「索償的投資者必須能夠出示證明他們所作出的投資本金數額,及沒有參與騙局的招攬行動。同時,他們在初步投資所獲得的盈利,將從索償金的總數中扣除。其他審核條件包括:若投資者是在當局對有關騙局發出警告後,仍然一意孤行地進行投資,也將會失去索償的資格。」

Swisscash是一個全球的欺詐案及無國界的互聯網營業,證監會曾與來自7個其他國家的監管機構緊密合作,遏止這些非法活動,這跨越司法管轄範圍的合作揭發的重要資料,為調查工作帶來顯著進展。


SC 的网站有索偿 Q&A

http://www.sc.com.my/main.asp?pageid=811&menuid=903&newsid=&linkid=&type=

Swisscash Investment Scam Settlement: FAQS

Q1:

What is the current status of the civil suit taken by SC against those involved in the Swisscash activities?

A:

The SC has entered into consent judgment with Albert Lee and Amir Hassan on 6 November 2009 in which they have agreed to pay the SC in total a sum in excess of RM30 million which will be used to compensate investors.



Q2:

How soon will investors be able to get their monies back?

A:

While the SC would like payments to be made as soon as possible, there are several steps that need to be taken including submitting the criteria for eligibility to court, appointing an Administrator, posting the advertisements in the newspapers etc. Realistically therefore, we expect the first batch of payments to be made early next year.



Q3:

What happens now? What steps will be taken now by SC?


Step 1:

The SC will appoint an Administrator and will work with the Administrator to provide the court with a framework for the eligibility of claimants and the plan for distribution.

Step 2:

Get the court order approving the framework

Step 3:

The Administrator will manage the processing of claims which includes advertising for claims and deciding on the eligibility of investors.

Step 4:

Eligible investors will be notified and payment will be made.



Q4:

How will you decide on the eligibility of investors?

A:

Eligible persons would be those who have sufficient proof of their principal investment and who have not been involved in the scam as recruiters. Where profits have been made from their initial investments, such profits will be deducted from the claim sum. Claimants would have to show documentary proof of their investments in the scheme. Additionally, there will be other criteria such as whether they invested in the scam despite the warnings by the authorities.



Q5:

How much will I be eligible to receive?

A:

That will depend on whether you have met all the criteria of eligibility or not particularly acceptable documentary proof for your claim.



Q6:

What proof will I need to submit to the SC?

A:

Please submit proof of your investment with the Swisscash investment scheme, photocopy of your identification card or passport and proof of payments to the Swisscash by way of Telegraphic transfer, bank transfer, internet banking. We will only be able to compensate investors who can prove that they had invested with Swisscash and had lost their initial investment. Claims can be processed and approved speedily if proof is provided to aid the auditors assessing your claim.



Q7:

I only have photocopies of payment I have made to the Swisscash scheme. Can I still submit a claim?

A:

Yes you may still submit your claim but that may not assure you of being successful in your claim.



Q8:

What if I do not have proof of payments as I had handed over cash to an upliner?

A:

You may not get your investments back as the payment has to be administered based on the strict criteria.



Q9:

Why did the SC only obtain RM30 million when the judgment obtained in 25 September 2008 was for the sum of USD83 million?

A:

The judgment of USD83 million was the amount mentioned in the suit we filed against Albert, Kelvin & Amir Hassan. The evidence which we had gathered during investigation indicated that there was possibly up to USD83 million in total investments made by Swisscash investors. So when we applied to court for judgment at the time, we quoted the maximum investments that were made.

If we had been successful in repatriating all the sums we had traced overseas, the figure would have been close to the settlement amount of RM31 million.



Q10:

Will I get all my money back?

A:

As the SC has a fixed amount of funds to compensate investors, approximately RM30 million, we will need to assess the total number of affected investors who submit claims coupled with the eligibility factors mentioned above. Additionally investors will be compensated based on the amount of their initial investment only. Profits will be deducted from the amount of investment.



Q11:

I have previously submitted a complaint to SC. Will I need to resubmit my complaint?

A:

If you have previously submitted a complaint to our Investor Affairs department, you will not need to do so again unless you have additional documentary evidence to support your claim.



Q12:

I invested after the SC's warning was issued on its website on 5 September 2006. Will I be able to get my money back?

A:

There is a possibility that you may not get your investments if you have invested past this date. However, the SC will propose a reasonable cut off period so as to ensure that investors who may not have been aware of the scam are compensated.



Q13:

I helped to recruit others to join and invest in the scheme. Will I be eligible to get my money back?

A:

One of the eligibility criteria in compensating investors is whether or not the investor was actively involved in recruiting others and therefore be considered as abetting the scheme. Any investor who was also involved in the scheme as a recruiter or an upliner would not be eligible to claim their money back.



Q14:

What happens to the monies in foreign jurisdictions that the SC was trying to repatriate?

A:

We will not continue with these efforts as the consent judgment is intended to allow the SC to use the monies provided by the defendants for purposes of restitution.



Q15.

I am a foreign investor. Will I be able to get my money back?

A:

Your claim will be processed together with the other claimants. However you must furnish sufficient proof of your claim. We will however need to determine whether a separate set of criteria is necessary for foreign investors and this criteria will be submitted to the court for its endorsement.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Wilmar delays China IPO, to invest in Africa

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/wilmar-delays-china-ipo-to-invest-in.html

Wilmar delays China IPO, to invest in Africa
Published: 2009/11/13

SINGAPORE: Wilmar International, the world's largest listed palm oil firm, signalled a promising outlook for its earnings but said the US$3.5 billion (US$1 = RM3.38) listing of its China unit is on hold due to its concern over valuations.

The palm oil giant's listing plan was the recent trigger for a rally in its shares, which retreated yesterday despite a quarterly profit that beat expectations.

"We will shelve it for the time being and wait for market conditions to improve," Wilmar's chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong said after a media and analysts' briefing for its third-quarter results.

"We only will list the China operation if it commands better price than what Wilmar is commanding right now in the stock market," he added.

Analysts have estimated that Wilmar's China unit could be valued as by much as 20 times earnings, matching the parent company's current price-to-earnings multiple.

With more than 30 firms eyeing listings in either Hong Kong or India over the next few months, leading to more than US$10 billion in share sales, companies wanting to list have had to keep their hopes for high prices in check.

Analysts have said Wilmar, which has a market value of US$30 billion, has no immediate need for funds.

The company said it was optimistic about prospects for the rest of this year after a one-off gain helped it post a better-than-expected 35 per cent rise in its third quarter profit.

Analysts were less impressed. "Excluding exceptional and one-off items, Wilmar's operating performance in its third quarter 2009 was not as strong as we would expect from normal seasonality," Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Tiah said in a research note.

"Notwithstanding, given the market's low expectations we believe consensus earnings could rise following the results," he added.

Wilmar's Kuok said the company plans to invest at least US$1 billion in China, Indonesia and Africa to expand its plantations and plants.

The company has raised profits in the last few quarters thanks to its processing and refining capabilities, outperforming rival palm oil firms that depend primarily on plantations.

Wilmar's shares have more than doubled this year, but some analysts cut their ratings after the company delayed plans in late September to float its China unit due to volatile markets.

The listing would have raised around US$3.5 billion.

CEO Kuok said earlier in a statement that he was optimistic about the firm's prospects for the rest of the financial year given the diversity of its business segments.

Wilmar, derives about half of its total sales from China, and owns oil palm plantations and runs crushing and refining plants in Indonesia and Malaysia.

The company, the second-largest on the Singapore Exchange after Singapore Telecommunications, earned US$653 million in July-September, up from US $483 million a year ago. - Reuters

Labels: ,

1 Malaysia 阴谋论 (转)

http://cforum2.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=1779693&extra=page%3D1&page=2

现在很多大马非土著富商门都开始把他们的资产投资移到外国。
1.)Airasia有意移向新加坡发展,因马航给于的不公平对待让Anthony很不满。

2.)当年郭鹤年快手把PBB中最有价值的PBB脂油卖给了新加坡的儿子,因当时EPF想吃掉PBB脂油给土著管理。

3.)郭鹤年对GLC投资上透了心,政府频频把GLC公司里赚钱的字公司卖给土著公司,把不赚钱的留给非土著投资者。近来的贸易风就是好例子。当年的金鹏也不赖。

4.)Hong Leong & Public Bank 都心里有数,逐步把资金移向香港。香港资金在境内境外调动是很自由的税务更是区域中的数一数二低。政府很想把华商们的银行吃光,削落华人的经济实力。PB Bank 不断有Bonus Issue就是想把其交足资本快速放大,优良管理让股价高高不下,Kazanah&EPF想吞也要看有没有本事了。

5.)Maxis 的阿纳达也不笨,先下手为强,在前几年把Maxis私有化好从振其内部资金。政府对当年Maxis内部庞大的储备现金虎视眈眈,用Telekom吞掉他是迟早的事。现在又回来上市就是已经看准下届大选有新气象了。

还有很多Case一时也说不完。

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Real World Transformer, YEAH !!!





被逮捕,怎么办?

http://www.merdekareview.com/wap2pg.php?id=9681

被逮捕,怎么办?
饶兆颖 | 05月20日 12:50:45

【律师说法/饶兆颖】数据显示,在5月7日霹雳州议会召开前两天开始,到昨晚为止,总共有130人因霹雳宪政危机被捕;他们被捕的原因各异:穿黑衣在咖啡室里喝茶,或在公园里跑步,或点蜡烛和平请愿。有很多人是第一次被捕,觉得很无辜,心灵上无疑受到很大的冲击。为什么逮捕我?在什么情况下,警察可以逮捕我?
简单地说,我国法律规定,如果有合理的投诉或有可靠情报,或有理由怀疑某人犯触犯了《刑事法典》或其他法律阐明"无逮捕令便可逮捕"的罪行 ("seizable offence"),警察即使没有逮捕令,也能逮捕一个人。(注:《刑事程序法典》第一附件清楚阐明《刑事法典》里哪些罪行是"无逮捕令便可逮捕"的罪行)

所以,警方逮捕一个人的要求不高,只要有合理的投诉或有可靠情报或有理由怀疑,任何一项便行了。

以下是两个真实的故事:

(一)一名行销员某天在某个停车场检到一个皮包,他在回家的路途中把这个皮包带到附近的警察局,也通知物主到警察局领回失物。然而,原来物主事前报了案,加上物主的口供里描述看到有人拿了他的皮包后开车跑掉,结果这名行销员成了最主要嫌疑犯,到警局后就被逮捕了。家人和朋友都不知道他的行踪,直到两天后才知道他在警局里。

(二)一名公司经理某天到公司上班时,发现存放重要文件的抽屉被打开了。他自行报了案,警方展开调查。警方向公司员工问取口供后,发现这名经理是(除老扳外)是唯一持有抽屉钥匙的人,就把他给逮捕了。

被捕了,不要慌

姑且不谈以上两个人是不是无辜的,但至少在他们到警局的那一刻,我们可以客观的判断,他们只是天真的认为在做应该做的事,却惹来被逮捕,被扣留的麻烦。这种不幸也可能发生在你我身上,重要的是,我们必须了解和捍卫被逮捕时应享有的个人权利,而不是畏服在警方的强权和恐吓之下。

还没有开始谈论这权利之前,我们必须厘清被逮捕和被提控是两回事。警方逮捕嫌疑犯的最主要目的是要盘问此人,而整个调查结果和证据最终将送到总检察署,以便决定是否提控这个人。《联邦宪法》赋予总检察署提控的最高权力,当总检察署决定提控一个人时,就必须把被告带到法院提控;所以,被逮捕的人未必一定会被提控。

一个人一旦被逮捕,意味着他的人身自由将受到制约。我国《联邦宪法》第五条款阐明,当一个人被逮捕时,他必须被告知被捕的原因,也必须获准咨询律师的意见及有代表律师抗辩。如果一个人必须被扣留超过24小时,他也必须在最短的时间内,被带到法院以延长其扣留。

所以,当你被逮捕时,不要慌,保持冷静,确认你为何被捕及将被带往哪一间警局,并在第一时间内要求联络家人或朋友,以及要求见律师。

咨询律师是最重要权利

得到律师的咨询是被逮捕者的最重要权利。修订后的《刑事程序法典》加入了第28A条款,阐明如果被逮捕者要求咨询律师,警方就必须提供充足的时间和空间,让被逮捕者与律师会面。第28A(8)条款阐明,除非警方有理由相信,与家人或律师会面会造成被逮捕者逃跑,或隐藏、捏造、毁灭证据,或恐吓证人,方可不让被逮捕者见家人或律师;不过,警方必须纪录拒绝让被捕者见律师的"理由"。不让被捕者会见律师是主要条款的一项例外。

在现实里,有很多被逮捕者不知道这项权利,也不会坚持。一般人被警察逮捕后,就乖乖地听命,在没有律师的咨询和陪同下被警方严刑拷问,甚至被殴打成招。

虽然有《联邦宪法》和《刑事程序法典》第28A条款赋予的权利,警方却利用28A条款的例外,不让被捕者见律师。最近被逮捕的政治学者及评论作者黄进发,以及在十五碑警局前的和平情愿者,虽然都在第一时间内要求见律师,但他们的这项权利却都被警方否决了。【点击:警方以煽动罪逮捕黄进发 不让律师援助开快车载走】

这引发了另一个问题:如何监督警方滥用28A条款的例外?在被否决见律师的权利的当儿,是否可挑战警方的决定?如何挑战?对于这问题,马来西亚律师公会已通过一项决议,决定起诉政府和警方拒绝在十五碑警局前被捕者要求见律师的权利。【点击:五律师警局办案被扣留 律师公会议决起诉政府】

接下来,让我们谈谈常听见律师们口中所说的"112口供"。所谓"112口供"意指援引《刑事程序法典》第112条款录取口供,此条款阐明,负责调查案件的警官能向任何有可能了解案件的实况或环境的人录取口供,而被盘问者必须回答所有问题,但有权拒绝回答任何可能对自己不利的问题。

《刑事程序法典》第112条款可被用在证人身上,也可被用在被逮捕者身上。无论任何时候,所有人都应该与警方充分合作,但是被逮捕者必须了解自己有拒绝回答问题的权利。律师们的忠告:回答基本问题,如姓名,年龄,职业,住址等,但对其他问题,有保持沉默的权利。

最后,我在这里告知大家,律师公会出版了一本小册子,被称为"红色小册子",以简单明了的字,细述被逮捕者的基本权利和该做的事。此时,我们应提高自己和社会对这方面的认识,消除对警方的畏惧,勇敢地维护自身权利。

饶兆颖是执业律师。

“它是你的,你有权诠释” 律师公会将宪法带入民间

http://www.merdekareview.com/news/n/11363.html

“它是你的,你有权诠释”
律师公会将宪法带入民间

作者/本刊曾薛霏 Nov 10, 2009 06:33:59 pm

【本刊曾薛霏撰述】如果一个人没有从事与法律相关的行业,可能在马来西亚生活数十载都未必知道什么是《联邦宪法》,但今年轰动全国的霹雳州夺权事件,引发的连串《宪法》释宪案,使普罗大众有机会知道《宪法》及其诠释。但,大众始终无法完全地认知宪法对我们日常生活的影响。

为此,马来西亚律师公会即将在本周五(13日)下午三时在律师公会推介为期两年的“我的宪法”(PerlembagaanKu / MyConstitution)醒觉运动,以深入浅出的方式,将《宪法》的知识带入寻常百姓家,让大众知道《宪法》是怎样的一份文件,又如何与他们的生活息息相关。

《独立新闻在线》走访了四位“我的宪法”小组的成员——雪兰莪州双威大学学院法律系主任保罗(Paul Linus Andrews)、见习律师梁振恩(24岁)、多媒体大学法律系学生叶恩玫(21岁)和玛拉工艺大学法律系学生娜迪亚(Nadia Abu Bakar,20岁),畅谈参与这场醒觉运动的点滴。

宪法醒觉运动重要

他们四人来自不同背景和经历,却在“我的宪法”运动下合作,矢志推广《宪法》,以便人人都可知道,宪赋权利是什么、马来西亚这个国家的构成等。

论及加入此小组的原因,四人中最年长的保罗认为,宪法普及化是他认为该做,但一直以来未有人推动的事,特别是在308大选以后,我国的政治图景已不同,许多涉及宪法的题材也纷纷浮出台面。

而且,人民需要知道宪法,也准备认识宪法了。因此,此运动非常重要,可协助人民了解立宪主义(constitutionalism)的概念,赋权给人民。

他认为,宪法不是仅属于特定的人,此次的运动就是要打破宪法属于律师和学者范畴的错误概念,并灌输“宪法是属于大家的”观念。

身为法律系学生的叶恩玫(左图)和娜迪亚都不约而同表示,她们是因为念书才接触到《宪法》,进而大开眼界,了解到《宪法》是我国的立国之本,使她们更有兴趣知道更多。

叶恩玫透露,有一天,她与屋友聊天,不期然谈到《宪法》,其屋友表示不知道何为《宪法》,并指这只是法律系学生知道的事情,“但是我认为《宪法》不只是属于法律系学生而已。我加入这个小组是希望能够有所贡献。”

叶恩玫和娜迪亚都表示,在《宪法》的许多部分中,她们对基本权利的部分感受最深,叶恩玫希望国家能最大限度地落实这些权利。

梁振恩认为,“我的宪法”小组公开给所有人参与是非常独特的,因为《宪法》是一份重要的文件,应该让寻常百姓接触这份文件。

他也提出一个观察,其实律师也不了解《宪法》是一份怎样的文件,因此,他希望能通过这项运动,提升人民的醒觉。

宪法诠释仍有冲突

目前是一名见习律师的梁振恩,对于特定人士扭曲宪法诠释,以符合本身利益的做法感到难过,这也是他认为人民有必要了解宪法诠释的原因。

保罗认为,宪法是一份仍在演进的文件,因此不仅限于特定的诠释而已,我国的执法和营运机关又有本身对宪法的诠释,这些诠释相互冲突。

他说:“我们处在诠释仍有冲突的阶段。因此会变得困难。但是不要忘记,在美国1960年代,人权运动,特别是黑人的人权运动开始时,他们可以因而遭到逮捕。当时,这些要求权利的呼声可能被视为挑战机制秩序的做法。但去到一个临界点时,这些都会打破,即来到了解放诠释的情况。”

保罗(右图)继说:“当美国的宪法处在损害人民的阶段时,这些诠释却得到的法庭裁决的认同。当时法官的诠释指,奴隶是没有权利的。曾有过一些案件是某人替奴隶主人寻获走失的奴隶但未获报酬,而入禀法院索赔的案件。法庭指示主人给予报酬,因为寻获别人遗失东西者理应获得报酬。”

“若你回想时,这是发生在美国历史上不久前而已,所以宪法的诠释有冲突是正常的,也必然会有冲突的。”

询及警察在集会中驱散集会人民是否一种违反宪法精神的做法时,娜迪亚表示,政府不是律师,警察也只是遵照上头的指示行动,因此他们可能有时错误诠释宪法。

叶恩玫说:“我觉得这与宪法的诠释有关,因为宪法已阐明,当然最好是由法庭去诠释,但在一些情况下,当政治涉及其中,有时捍卫宪法的诠释就不存在。我想这是为什么涉及基本权利的课题时,其结果并不十分理想。”

她以联邦法官哥巴斯里南(Gopal Sri Ram)在被控贩毒而判处死刑的李观和(音译,Lee Kwan Woh)案的判决为例道:“在关乎基本权利的条款中,法庭理应赋予最广泛的诠释,反之在一些限制基本权利的条文则应尽可能收窄诠释。”

这宗案件中,李观和因被控贩毒而被判死刑,由于高庭未让他自辩,最后此案上诉至联邦法院。联邦法院三司裁决,法庭应该裁决广阔的方式诠释宪法中的基本人权条款,联邦法院认为,高庭法官未让李观和自辩属违反了宪法第5(1)条款(有关生存的权利)。此外,高庭法官在审视控方的证据时也不够批判性,未注意到当中不一致的地方,因此判处李观和当庭获释。

仅有限度触及宪法教育

受访者都提到,他们是在念法律时才开始接触《宪法》,是不是我国的教育制度并未很好地教育人民《宪法》?

保罗认为,其实在教育制度中有提及宪法,但都非常有限,也没有提到宪法重要的部分,以致人民对宪法的理解有限。

叶恩玫也忆述道,她是从历史课知道宪法,但课本中只有一章提到这个部分,并未触及宪法重要的层面,因此读过后,并不会留在脑海中,“你需要去了解它,和认识它。”

娜迪亚(左图)补充道,她第一次读到宪法时,才明了这就是国家给她的东西,但是单单阅读宪法还不够,必须去了解如何去诠释宪法。

梁振恩也点出一些关于我国教育制度的观察,并指历史课多以背诵人物、事件、日期为主,鲜少提及应用的层面,以致学生无法了解历史的重要性。

但是在接触了宪法并了解其重要性后,他开始有兴趣了解宪法,并买下了生平第一本《宪法》。

叶恩玫也表示,因为上课所需,她也买了一本宪法,在上课前翻阅时,读到一些条款,心想:“啊,宪法是这样说的。里面有提到三权分立。之前我完全不懂这些东西。因此,我想知道更多。”

各阶层人士合作的重要性

保罗认为,“我的宪法”运动就是要让各阶层、各领域人士合作,共同推广宪法,这场运动是跨政治且中立的。

他说:“每个人都可扮演本身的角色,就连你身为一个媒体工作者都可参与整个过程。因此这个过程不仅仅属于律师公会的。这也是为何这个运动成为‘我的宪法’(PerlembagaanKu),当你用马来文的‘Ku’时,那是比较私密的,你不会随便说一个东西是我的。”

他补充道,他非常有兴趣看这场运动会有什么效果,因为目前已有一群人参与,已算饶有小成。

他说,若小组内的40个成员,都告诉两个朋友此运动的讯息,那么就有80个人知道此事,若这80人又告诉两个人,人数就会不断增长。

他希望随着人数的增长,可催生更多民间团体,共同参与讨论更多公共事务。

梁振恩也表示,运动的其中一个目的是让六百万户人家了解宪法,若每个人都有兴趣买一本《宪法》来翻阅,那么他们的工作就算完成了。

运动为期两年举行

“我的宪法”运动是律师公会难得举行的大型活动。活动将以九个主题为主:一、简介至高无上的《宪法》;二、《宪法》与三权分立;三、联邦与州的关系;四、人民:公民权及基本自由;五、选举与民主;六、国会/立法机关;七、政府/行政机关、八、法院/司法机关;九、沙巴与砂拉越。

律师公会也将印刷并派送口袋尺寸的《人民指南》给六百万户家庭。第一份《人民指南》将随着本周五推介时推出,题目为《什么是宪法?》

翻阅律师公会提供的《人民指南》,其中胪列出十大生活情境,让人民更容易理解宪法与生活的关系。

分享其中一个例子:“你住在槟城并决定到森美兰探访你的亲人。你可以不需要护照或任何文件,就直接驾车通过南北大道直到森美兰,(途径吉打、霹雳、雪兰莪和联邦直辖区)。之后,你决定移居到吉隆坡工作。你都可以这么做,因为在第9(2)条款阐明,每个公民都可以在马来西亚自由走动和居住,除了到沙巴和砂拉越。”

有兴趣了解更多讯息的读者,可登入“我的宪法运动”的面书(http://www.facebook.com /MyConstitution)、Twitter (http://twitter.com/MyConsti)、马来西亚律师公会宪法小组网站 (http://www.malaysianbar.org.my/constitutional_law_commitee)以及点击Youtube的短片。(http://www.youtube.com/user/PerlembagaanKu)

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

(谣言一则)传大众银行挂牌出售 联昌和丰隆争食大饼

http://www.merdekareview.com/news/n/11261.html

传大众银行挂牌出售
联昌和丰隆争食大饼

作者/本刊翁慧琪撰述 Nov 02, 2009 05:24:45 pm

【本刊翁慧琪撰述】市场传言,身为银行业大亨的郑鸿标或因健康问题,转售大众银行(Public Bank),联昌国际银行(CIMB Bank)和丰隆金融集团(Hong Leong Financial Group)传出对这块“肥猪肉”感兴趣,可能因此触发马来西亚银行领域新一轮的整合行动。

根据最新一期的英文财经周刊《The Edge》报道,银行领域当中盛传大众银行创始人兼现任主席郑鸿标(右图),因为健康欠佳而考虑出售旗下的大众资产。

与此同时,市场更进一步传出丰隆金融集团主席郭令灿和联昌国际银行集团首席执行员纳西尔拉萨(Nazir Razak),对这家可说是国内最有赚头的银行寻求脱手而虎视眈眈。

大众银行创办人健康引关注

有鉴于此,郑鸿标的健康问题,已经成为市场一大关注,主要是这可能会让马来西亚仅剩两家的华资银行最终被拼吞,变为硕果仅存的本土华资银行。在今年七月期间,现年78岁的郑鸿标突然宣布入院,不过大众银行通过文告申明,他是在医生的劝告之下,与本地医院动“小手术”。然而,郑鸿标在10月初仍未正式上班,而他的秘书早前透露他人在海外,要月底才返马,至于是出国旅游抑或医病则未知。

郑鸿标从1966年创办大众银行,一手把该银行扩大成为现在的亚洲顶级银行集团。郑鸿标的专业管理银行手法,获得众人认同,所以没有他,大众银行也难以达到今时今日的地位,而股东一向喜欢投资在回酬稳定的大众银行,所以掌舵人的健康因素成为左右大众银行未来的关键。

国家银行(BNM)曾在1999年宣布本地银行领域的整合计划,让国内当时20家商业银行及其他35家金融机构业者,于2000年杪前完成合并行动。结果,国内的银行集团在银行合并计划下,缩小成10家商业银行。后来,在2006年期间,联昌国际银行以67亿元收购了当时业界排名第九的南方银行(Southern Bank),进一步把我国银行体系巩固为九个集团。

联昌国际银行集团是马来西亚规模第二大的银行,由首相纳吉的胞弟纳西尔拉萨掌舵。他曾强调我国银行领域必须在短期内缩减成为至少五个集团,以配合政府开放金融领域给海外业者的行动。大众银行的潜在脱售,可能就会因此成为银行业新一轮整合的序曲。

国内仅存两家本土华资银行

目前,国内共有九家主要商业银行,其中只有大众银行与丰隆银行是属于华资银行。除了郑鸿标之外,郭令灿是业界另一巨头,掌控丰隆金融集团。以资产负债表的规模而言,大众银行是马来西亚第三大银行,截至去年杪的总资产额为1962亿元,其中呆账额更是全国最低。相比之下,丰隆金融集团截至今年上半年的总资产仅有865亿元。

早在07年期间,市场便传言会有次轮银行合并潮,当时大众银行和丰隆银行两家华资银行被传可能合并。不过大部分市场人士都不甚看好,主要是郑鸿标和郭令灿皆是金融界高手,两者过招绝对是难分胜负,由谁来主导成了一个棘手的问题。如果郑鸿标真的因病愿意让出大众银行,那么,这将为丰隆银行与大众银行的合并扫除障碍。

至于联昌国际银行,基于其企业背景特殊——由首相兼财政部长纳吉的胞弟纳西尔拉萨掌舵,因此,一直都备市场视为本地银行领域的未来主干,甚至传出联昌国际银行将主导与国内银行领域的合并浪潮,完成统领马来西亚银行领域的霸业。

以联昌国际银行的掌舵人纳西尔拉萨曾强调,我国银行领域必须在短期内缩减成为至少五个集团,以配合政府开放金融领域给海外业者的行动。再加上纳吉可以为他背书,因此,以“整合本地银行领域,迎接外资挑战”为理由并购大众银行,绝对可以毫无顾忌的进行并购行动。此外,以联昌国际银行收购南方银行的先例来看,这并非不可能发生。

国内银行扩展海外,分身乏术

但是,一些市场观察家却认为,无论是联昌国际银行还是丰隆集团,以国内银行业者的目前财务状况而言,要买下大众银行并不是易事,而脱售协议必定是一笔天价。我国最大银行的马银行(Maybank),因为去年在区域内以超过120亿元收购三家银行,而且并购案还引起广泛争议,若真要收购大众银行的话,恐怕会再度触发股东怒气。

再说联昌国际银行在过去数年亦积极扩展行动至新加坡、泰国以及印尼,其中包括收购印尼商业银行(Bank Niaga),加上以67亿元收购南方银行,可以说是耗了一大笔资金。所以,要进一步收复来头不小的大众银行,恐怕纳西尔是眼阔肚窄。目前的联昌国际,想要收购比南方银行资产大上数倍的大众银行,并非易事。至于丰隆集团,他们也是忙于手中的越南扩展行动,况且郭令灿向来是出名不以高价收购,可想而知,大众银行的收购价对他而言,肯定不便宜。

郭鹤年正式撤资

郭鹤年正式撤资

少数民族的资本家一个接一个被逼跑了
巫统策划的马来族经济独占圈已经完成 70%
下一个就是 PBB, HLB,最后就是云顶集团 LOL

如果 PBB, HLB 不保
以后没有巫统马来族为大股东的公司
可能无法融资借钱了

拟脱售总值15亿令吉糖业 郭鹤年将让出糖王宝座 2009-11-01 联合早报

  (吉隆坡讯)马来西亚首富郭鹤年作出惊人宣布,献议脱售本身在马来西亚总值15亿令吉(约6亿新元)的糖业,这意味着“糖王”宝座,将在不久后拱手让人。

  《南洋商报》报道,继郭氏代表周三就土著企业大亨赛莫达(贸易风“Tws”大股东)收购马国米粮交易商国家稻米(Bernas)投下赞成票后,郭鹤年旗下的玻璃市种植(PPB)集团宣布以总值12亿2116万现金价格,完全脱售马来亚糖厂的股权给联邦土地发展控股(FELDA)旗下子公司——联邦全球创投控股。

  此外,PPB集团与联邦全球创投控股达成的协议还包括出售玻州联土局糖厂公司50%股权,以及献议以4500万令吉脱售玻璃市初平一片5707公顷的土地。

  前天,PPB集团拥有49%股权的联号公司Grenfell控股公司也宣布将以相等于2亿零753万令吉的价格,脱售在贸易风20%的股权。

赛莫达可能成新一代糖王

  之前,市场盛传FELDA有意买入郭鹤年所持有的贸易风股权,贸易风虽发文告否认,但郭鹤年前天进行的一系列企业活动,不但证实有关报道,脱售范围甚至比市场预测的还要多,继而引起市场哗然。

  随着亿万富豪郭鹤年退出糖业市场,赛莫达或将成为马国新一代糖王。

  赛莫达(Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary)身家高达31亿令吉,在马国富豪榜中排行第7,他也是柔州丹绒柏勒巴斯港口与柔佛港口大股东。

  据《星洲日报》报道,郭鹤年这项大举沽售活动,让市场揣测这是否他淡出马国商界的第一步,因为郭鹤年近年的商业重心已经转至海外,特別是香港。

  分析员认为,郭鹤年淡出马国米糖业,可能将资金撤离马国,为长期之计转向投资海外。

  PPB集团前天发表文告说,脱售资产主要是希望可兑现投资获利,并在海内外进行策略投资,为股东带来最大的利益。

学者:郭鹤年旗下公司在撤资

  联昌研究经济学家李兴裕对《中国报》说:“站在宏观经济角度来看,明显郭鹤年旗下公司是在撤离资金。”

  在马来西亚,米糖皆属政府统制品,产量及价格全都受限制,早前成本高、供应短缺及受经济低迷打击,导致PPB集团业绩受影响。

  尽管米糖都是稳定的业务,但黄氏星展维克斯的分析报告曾指出,在2009至2011财年,PPB集团核心业务可贡献的营运现金有限,甚至会影响该公司派发高股息的能力。

  PPB集团的炼糖业务是由独资子公司马来亚糖厂(MSM),以及持股50%的联号公司玻州联土局糖厂公司(Kilang Gula Felda Perlis)负责。

  马来亚糖厂的炼糖厂设在槟城威省,1964年投入运作,每日原糖产量达2500吨,是本区域最大的炼糖厂。截至去年12月31日,其净资产及税后盈利分别高达4亿9735万令吉及1亿2483万令吉。

  今年8月,外资香港宏德国际持有国家稻米大批股权引起争议,一些政治人物对外资崛起成为国稻最大股东表示不安,并提出收购建议。

  尽管宏德集团是在香港注册,由马来西亚房地产发展商怡保花园(IGB)陈氏家族控制,但市场仍盛传FELDA有意向郭鹤年旗下的Grenfell控股收购它所持有的贸易风股权,以成为这家种植与白糖生产商的最大股东。当时市场揣测FELDA可能依政府指示对贸易风作出收购建议,以便间接持有国稻股权。

挑起稳定白糖重担半世纪 郭鹤年苦心经营未获体恤

挑起稳定白糖重担半世纪
郭鹤年苦心经营未获体恤

作者/本刊梁志华 Nov 06, 2009 09:34:35 pm

后郭鹤年时代(上)

【本刊梁志华撰述】随着马来西亚糖王郭鹤年(Robert Kuok)出乎意料地在上周五(10月30日),宣布脱售其在马来西亚的白糖业后,这意味着,郭鹤年将拱手让出掌控了超过半个世纪的白糖王朝,卸下“马来西亚糖王”的称号。

据媒体报道,由郭鹤年(左图)掌控的PPB集团,将以马币12亿2000元脱售旗下的马来西亚糖厂(Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Company Bhd)给联邦土地发展局(FELDA)的商业臂膀全球创投控股私人公司(Felda Global Venture)。
马来西亚糖厂占国内白糖供应的50%比重。
此外,该集团还以马币2630万元卖出其Felda玻璃市糖厂私人公司的50%股权,并脱手位于玻璃市价值马币4500万元甘蔗种植地。
同 时,郭氏集团也建议,以马币2亿753万元的价格,把其通过Grenfell控股私人有限公司持有的贸易风(Tradewinds (M) Bhd)20%股权, 卖给Felda全球创投控股。贸易风持有国内另一家主要白糖提炼厂Central Sugar Refinaery私人有限公司。而贸易风的幕后老板,就是著名土著企业家赛莫达(Syed Mokhtar)。
到底郭鹤年从这宗交易中赚了多少,已不再是重点。接下来更关键的是,马来西亚的白糖领域来到了一个转折点,肯定将面临一场重大的重新洗牌。到底白糖领域将进入全面垄断的时代(或被“国有化”,或由“新一代糖王”赛莫达全面收购),还是将走向市场自由化的时代,的确引人关注。
扮演稳定糖价与供应的要角
过 去数百年来,白糖成了人们生活上不可或缺的基本必需品,使得白糖供应与价格的稳定性,成为全球政府都在关注的问题。因此,全球白糖市场到处都充斥着政府对 市场的干预(Intervention),以确保自身国内市场的白糖需求、供应,以及价格受到控制,避免白糖市场过度激烈的波动,最终引发严重的社会动 乱。
郭鹤年在过去超过半个世纪以来,一直都为政府扮演着稳定国内白糖价格与供应的重要角色,即使在全球市场处于激烈波动之际,郭鹤年依然坚守这道门槛。郭氏家族自1940年代起,就通过与政府机构的合作,为国内市场提供白糖、面粉、植物油等基本必需品。
根 据新加坡《海峡时报》(The Strait Times)在11月6日的报道中指出,马来西亚每年大约进口100万公吨的原糖(raw sugar),占国内白糖提炼厂对原糖需求的90%比重。郭鹤年大约控制了70%的进口配额,并在三家主要白糖提炼厂中,持有大批股权。
马来西亚政府官员就指出,在1997年中旬爆发的区域货币危机(亚洲金融危机)中,在国内白糖市场持有寡头垄断地位的郭鹤年,尽管当时面对马币大幅贬值的困境,还是把这个难啃的骨头啃了下来,通过稳住国内的白糖贸易,把国内白糖价格稳定下来。
此外,几乎每一年的佳节期间,白糖的需求必定都会大幅增加,引发市场供应短缺的恐慌。郭鹤年旗下的糖厂几乎每年都在稳定供应方面,做出重大的贡献。国内贸易与消费人事务部长依斯迈沙比里(Ismail Sabri Yaakob)曾在媒体上透露,为了避免斋戒月面对白糖因需求大增而陷入短缺的问题,包括由郭鹤年控制的马来西亚糖厂,以及郭鹤年有份参股的 Central Sugar Refinaery等白糖提炼大厂,在今年八月份就提高了20%的产量至每月12万公吨,确保国内拥有充足的白糖供应。
白糖市场生意难做
新加坡的白糖交易商在接受当地媒体《海峡时报》访问时就表示,白糖市场是一个高度复杂的生意,也只有像郭鹤年这样的大玩家,才有足够的实力在国际白糖市场的价格陷入疯狂飙升之际,自行吸纳亏损来稳定白糖价格。
虽然郭鹤年没有说明为何退出马来西亚的白糖市场,不过,根据《海峡时报》引述PPB集团执行人员谈话的报道指出,马来西亚政府不愿提高白糖的零售价,导致这盘白糖生意越来越难做,几乎变成了一笔难赚的生意。
据了解,尽管这半个世纪来,郭鹤年在稳定国内白糖市场的供应与价格稳定上,做出了重大的贡献,尤其是在经济危机与国际白糖市场失序的时候,更是挺身而出。但是,政府在过去的十年来,并没有意愿要允许调高白糖零售价,因为这可能将引发公众的反弹。
对于身为马来西亚人的郭鹤年来说,这些年来他已经尽了国人的责任;对于生意人来说,不可能老是要他赔着本来做生意。况且,郭鹤年在退场之际,还尽了最后的本分,把这盘垄断生意交回政府手中(卖给政府关联机构联邦土地局下的Felda全球创投控股私人公司)。
步入后郭鹤年时代
接下来,就要看政府如何带领国内白糖领域,走出后郭鹤年时代。在这方面,政府有两个选择:其一,是让白糖市场急需保持现有的寡头垄断或进入全面垄断的时代;其二,走向市场自由化的时代。
如果由从郭鹤年手中接过白糖王朝的Felda全球创投控股私人公司继续扮演郭鹤年的角色,那么,一切都将维持现状,白糖市场继续现有的寡头垄断状态,由Felda全球创投与土著企业家赛莫达各霸一方。
以联邦土地局过去多年来,通过土地开垦计划与农业津贴计划,在推动乡村与农业发展,包括稳定原产品供应(尤其是原棕油),提升农民收入,以及把农作下游业务商业化等方面的纪录,要扮演稳定国内白糖供应与价格的角色,应该不成问题。
但是,如果政府有意要整合整个白糖市场,把白糖领域合并在一个单一的旗帜下,这意味着白糖领域将变成一个垄断市场。这里可能会出现至少两种局面,一是由Felda全球创投获得白糖独家垄断权,二是土著企业家赛莫达成了真正独一无二的马来西亚糖王。
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读者来函 [2]

到底谁“吃”了我们的糖

作者/caffeinbar 2009年11月07日 2:14 pm

老实不客气的说,马来西亚政府的数据(data) 很多,不过谈起了可以成为"资料” (information) 的,寥寥无几。

片面的数据,很多时候,都是政府诱导人民去分岔路口的技俩。

马来西亚人如何消耗糖, 也不可能追上生产的速度。

根据槟城消协的报导 :

“在1970 年代,我国人民每天吃糖约17 茶匙。到了1980 年代,它增加到每天约21 茶匙。进入1990 年代,平均每天耗糖24 茶匙。现在已增加到26 茶匙。”

虽 然马来西亚拥有27 00万人口,可是本地糖厂的生产量,已经年达1.16 百万吨。虽然数据显示人口消耗66% 的糖,可是别忘记,很多糖是由其他食品制作生产进入市场的。比如说很多本地制造的包装水,包装食物都是糖份非常高的。而马来西亚的食品制造业,其实大部分 都出口了。

虽然马来西亚制造糖的90% 原料是入口的,对于代糖,政府控制的非常严厉。更加怪的是,明明知道糖业根本是不可再生的工业(90% 原料入口),马来西亚政府对用很多糖的食品工业,却是青睐有加。当问题是,靠进口原料来维持食品工业, 根本不是一个高增值的工业。 更大的问题还在马来西亚人民眼前。如果大家跑去马来西亚超市,就会发现,货架上泊来的中国、泰国、印尼、越南、菲律宾,甚至于东欧的食品,在价格上把本地 食品工业的成品挤了出去。

马来西亚其实在食品,早已经失去了竞争。现在只等最后一根稻草压垮骆驼。马来西亚官僚政府,在所谓的白糖津贴,到底效益有多高, 根本没有一个科学化的数据。

对于一个大企业家来说,把这些隐藏的数据找出来科学化,那么就可以明白整个市场的导向。而在国际化和自贸的导向下,大企业除了看本地的导向,也会看全球的数据因素。要去要留,除了政治因素,郭氏集团撤离马来西亚糖业,其实早已经心中有数。

只要 Felda 和赛莫达在马来西亚糖业上的赚头,不是好像许多亏损的国营“私产朋党化”公司那样,靠国家津贴来制造赚钱的假象,人民才没兴趣知道谁是糖王。

资料来源:
http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/x0513e/x0513e22.htm

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

冷眼旧剪报 (转)



糖王換人做

2009-11-03 12:41

上週企業最大事是甚麼?國家汽車政策?老套,還是保護國產車,逼人民買貴車;明訊上市?已經是舊聞,只等待看重新上市的表現;那是甚麼?大馬糖王換人做!

上週五傍晚,由大馬首富郭鶴年控制的PPB集團無預警的突然宣佈,全面退出大馬糖業和米業,令市場大為吃驚,因為這可能是郭鶴年淡出大企業界的先兆,郭鶴年如果單純因為本身問題要退休不是問題,問題是:他為甚麼突然大動作賣掉業務根基的米糖業務?

他的大動作,發生在香港公司宏德國際被逼退出國家稻米大股東行列,由土著企業家丹斯里賽莫達接手股權的兩天後,時間更令人有諸多臆測。賽莫達通過貿易風全面獻購國稻,而郭氏兄弟則持有貿易風的20%股權。

郭鶴年在賣掉制糖業務的同時,也賣掉在貿易風的20%股權,市場有不少解讀,大部份認為他在對於貿易風全面獻購國稻表達不滿;之前他在貿易風特大會上,對全購國稻議程放棄投標權,已經引發“不滿”的說法,雖然貿易風主席拿督賽阿都查化出面“消毒”,表示郭集團也同意收購國稻建議,但上週五的舉動,鞏固的“不滿”的猜測。

接下來的猜測是:他為甚麼退出大馬糖業?是商業操作還是有背後的其他原因?

商業操作的話,就令人費 解,15億令吉是大數目,脫售令PPB集團和郭鶴年都賺不少。但是, PPB集團並不缺錢;而郭鶴年貴為大馬首富,身價高達307億令吉,最多就是錢。

對PPB集團和郭鶴年來說,錢容易找,現金流穩定的業務難尋,需要做這種“殺雞取卵”,不理智的商業決策嗎?PPB集團在經濟風暴中保持標青業績,靠得就是製糖和甘蔗種植的穩定收入,何況明年是商品當道,這時候脫售,點與線都不合理。

如果非關商業,是其他因素的介入,諸如政治因素逼退宏德國際的故事重演,就令人痛心和擔心了。

宏德國際投資國稻時間非常久,一直以來都沒有問題。不過,有一天有一位政治人物可能太空閒(大馬政治人物出名無所事事,天馬行空搞事情),不小心發現宏德在國稻的股權有31.5%,超過另一名土著大股東賽莫達的30.8%股權,不得了,他於是終於在國會有發言的機會:國家米糧由外資控制,太危險了,如果外資發動糧食戰爭,大馬會因為缺糧而亡。

本來很單純的商業投資,被政治人物誇大變成“殺傷力極大的危險武器”,最終宏德只好放棄在國稻的投資,由土著賽莫達接手,於是“殺傷力武器”又變回純白的稻米,沒事了!

白糖事件會是白米事件的翻版嗎?郭鶴年不是外資,他一直是大馬人。

郭鶴年近年的業務重心雖然移至海外,特別是在香港和中國特別活躍,但在大馬,旗下上市公司不少,除了PPB集團,還有大馬散裝貨運、澄心亞洲、香格里拉和金鵬集團等,他成為首富,是以米糧糖起家,使他有“大馬糖王”的美稱,前首相敦阿都拉設立南部特區,還特別繳請他站台,以增加特區對外資的吸引力,證明他在國際商界的分量。

PPB集團旗下的大馬糖廠供應本地50%白糖,大馬其他主要糖廠是貿易風(郭氏有20%股權)控制的中央白糖提煉公司,現在他悉數脫售大馬糖業,但保留海外白糖出口分銷網,顯示他對白糖業務並非無心戀棧。

如果他是因為其他“不為外人所知”的原因,不得不賣掉“祖業”,把“大馬糖王”的寶座讓給賽莫達坐,如果“這背後原因”讓 郭鶴年決定退出大馬商界,這對積極吸引外資的大馬經濟,拼命說服海外公司來上市的馬股來說,都是震撼彈!

郭鶴年退出大馬米糖業,發生在政府決定取消白米和白糖津貼的同時,時間上也很難不令人有太多其他聯想,當然我們希望一切都只是我們的“過度想象”,這一切只是商業決定!
星洲日報/焦點評析‧作者:陳艷芳‧2009.11.03

Monday, October 26, 2009

一个可怜流浪汉的故事

一九四五年的一天,克力富兰的孤儿院里出现了一个神秘的女婴,没有人知道她的父母是谁。她孤独地长大,没有任何人与她来往。
  
  
  直到一九六三年的一天,她莫明其妙地爱上了一个流浪汉,情况才变得好起来。可是好景不长,不幸事件一个接一个的发生。首先,当她发现自己怀上了流浪汉的小孩时,流浪汉却突然失踪了。其次,她在医院生小孩时,医生发现她是双性人,也就是说她同时具有男女性器官。为了挽救她的生命,医院给她做了变性手术,她变成了他。最不幸的是,她刚刚生下的小女孩又被一个神秘的人给绑走了。这一连串的打击使他从此一蹶不振,最后流落到街头变成了一个无家可归的流浪汉。
  
  
  直到一九七八年的一天,他醉熏熏地走进了一个小酒吧,把他一身不幸的遭遇告诉了一个比他年长的酒吧伙计。酒吧伙计很同情他,主动提出帮他找到那个使‘他’怀孕而又失踪的流浪汉。唯一的条件是他必须参加伙计他们的‘时间旅行特种部队’。


  
  
  他们一起进了‘时间飞车’。飞车回到六三年时,伙计把流浪汉放了出去。流浪汉莫明其妙地爱上了一个孤儿院长大的姑娘,并使她怀了孕。伙计又乘‘时间飞车’前行九个多月,到医院抢走了刚刚出生的小女婴,并用‘时间飞车’把女婴带回到一九四五年,悄悄地把她放在克力富兰的一个孤儿院里。然后再把稀里糊涂的流浪汉向前带到了一九八五年,并且让他加入了他们的‘时间旅行特种部队’。
  
  
  流浪汉有了正式工作以后,生活走上了正轨。并逐渐地在特种部队里混到了相当不错的地位。有一次,为了完成一个特殊任务,上级派他飞回一九七零年,化装成酒吧伙计去拉一个流浪汉加入他们的特种部队,

这个流浪汉最大的特点就是看贴不回贴。

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

How to claim back dividen

首先你必须有income tax file,没有就去开一个。
除了填写报税表,还有一个就是borang hk-3。这就是让你claim 股息的表格。
表格很容易填,应该不成问题。
为了方便填写表格,请把该年度的所有dividend voucher集合起来,然后依payment date的先后排列。

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

It is the Business that Matters

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/it-is-business-that-matters.html

Over the long haul, stock prices tend to track the value of the business. When firms do well, so do their shares, and when business suffers, the stock will as well. Always focus on the company's fundamental financial performance.

Analyst upgrades and chart patterns may be fine tools for traders who treat the stock market like a casino, but they're of little use to investors who truly want to build wealth in the stock market. You have to get your hands dirty and understand the businesses of the stocks you own if you hope to be a successful long-term investor.

P/S: Look at Hai-O to learn that price tracks the value of the company's business.

Monday, October 12, 2009

马来西亚 top 2 奸商

Glovemakers shares up on rising demand

OSK Research has an 'overweight' rating on the sector, raising its target prices on some rubber glove stocks



SHARES of rubber glove companies are on a roll right now and will continue to move up, riding on the global outbreak of influenza A (H1N1).

OSK Research Sdn Bhd has an "overweight" rating on the sector, raising its target prices on some rubber glove stocks, in line with recent developments in the industry's spurring demand for rubber gloves.

The local research house organised plant tours to four rubber glove companies last month, namely Top Glove Corp Bhd (7113), Supermax Corp Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Hartalega Holdings Bhd.

"For Top Glove, we recommend a buy with a target price of RM8.50 from RM7.40 previously and Supermax, also a buy with a target price of RM3.85 from RM2.69 previously," it said in a report yesterday.
"We are also recommending a buy on Kossan, with a target price of RM4.98 from RM4.48 previously as well as on Adventa, with a target price of RM1.87 from RM1.31 before," it added.

While it has revised its target price upwards to RM5.45 from RM4.10 for Hartalega, the research house has downgraded its call to "neutral" from "buy" previously, given that Hartalega's share price has caught up with the valuation.

OSK Research said demand for rubber gloves from the medical industry remains strong, especially from developing countries.

"But glove supply is still short. Since the H1N1 outbreak has been raised to a pandemic level, the governments of developed countries like the US and Europe have urged all healthcare multinational corps to stock up on rubber gloves, which has created short-term demand.

"Over the longer term, demand is expected to come from developing countries like China, India and Russia, which are gradually increasing their use of gloves," it said.

Also, with the US tightening its Food and Drug Administration regulations effective December 2008, the number of glove defects per batch would need to be reduced to qualify for entry to the US market.

This would reduce the supply of rubber glove exports to the US due to the retention of "unqualified"' gloves at the ports and hence create new sales opportunities for the established rubber glove manufacturers, said OSK Research.

DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Ups Top Glove Target To MYR10.55 Vs MYR9.86

GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB Research ups Top Glove (7113.KU) target to MYR10.55 (based 15X market PER) from MYR9.86 after company posted better-than-expected FY09 results; notes net profit of MYR169.2 million came in 9% above house estimate of MYR156 million, stoked by strong demand, continuous improvements in product quality and productivity, company's aggressive marketing strategies. Revises up FY10-12 earnings forecasts by 1%-11% after accounting for improved FY09 numbers, lower cost assumptions. Adds strong demand since H1N1 outbreak will likely continue in FY10; retains Outperform call. "Potential re-rating catalysts include this set of record earnings, the continuous uptick in demand and ongoing capacity expansion," says CIMB. Stock last 1.6% at MYR8.28.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Top Glove Corporation Bhd (Symbol & Code: TOPGLOV 7113) - 10th Oct 2009

Posted by Daniel Wong | 10:07 PM | 0 comments »














(8 years Historical Chart)

Company Background

The Top Glove group was established in Malaysia in 1991 and is principally involved in the manufacturing, trading, and exporting of latex examination, medical/surgical, clean room, nitrile, vinyl, polyethylene (PE), high risk and household gloves. True to its name, the group is the world's largest rubber glove manufacturer, supplying about 24% of the global market.

The group was listed in KLSE's Second Board in 2001 and a year later it was transferred to the Main Board. The group acquired 60.1% equity interest in Medi-Flex Ltd (a company listed on SGX-SESDAQ) in 2007. Currently, the group has 17 glove factories (13 in Malaysia, 2 in Thailand and 2 in China) with a production capacity of 31.5 billion pieces of gloves a year. The groups exports to 180 countries worlwide, including USA, Europe and the Far East (Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan).

The group also has upstream production with 2 plants in Hadyai, manufacturing concentrated latex and block rubber products. These 2 latex concentrated plants are able to produce 90,000 tonnes of wet latex a year and is contributing about 80% of its in-house latex concentrate consumption.

The group recently reported a 55.5% y-o-y rise in earnings to RM168.1m, on the back of 11.2% rise in revenue for FY09. As there is increasing awareness of safety and hygiene among consumers coupled with Top Glove's aggresive capacity expansion, the group is expected to continue producing good earnings growth over the next few years. Also, rubber glove business is considered a recession proof business, particularly those of latex examination and medical/surgical gloves.

Fundamentals

ROE: 19.9%

Average EPS Growth Rate: 30.3%

D/E: 0.31

Gross Profit Margin: 16.52%

Average P/E: 15.2

Dividend Yield: 3%

Fair Value: RM 8.49

Current Price: RM 8.23

Recommendation: BUY

投资组合

2009 年 1月1号 至今 10月9号,目前暂时纸面回筹已到达年回筹 +26.17%

2009 年 12月31号 总结,会将全年回筹加入本钱里,明年从 0% 开始算。

目前现金 5 / 持股 95%

持股 (买入时间) 数量 平均价(水钱)
topglove (06/05/2009) - 6.375
tienwah (11/05/2009) - 1.421
QL (14/09/2009) - 3.299
jtinter (18/06/2009) - 4.351
ksl (12/08/2009) - 1.274
gab (02/10/2009) - 6.840
3A (07/10/2009) - 0.91

目标是每年 18% 增长,持续 20 年。
我会比较注重回筹巴仙率 %,因为 (10000 赚 200) vs (1000 赚 200),都是赚 200, 但是一个 2% 另一个却是 20%
无特定投资策略, 凭感觉,随心所欲,跟风,人买我也买,等等方法
记录个股第一次的买入日期,是因为要看到底自己能够在赚钱/亏钱时,持股多久。

× 策略1:topglove 财报公布后,可能会减持少许,视业绩和股息多寡而定。
× 策略2:KSL 不知道要怎样,已经 -9% 了。
× 策略3:QL 等公布红股 exdate.
× 策略4: 想买一只金融股,想买 HSL,jtinter
× 策略5: NESTLE 从 27 块想买到现在已经 34 块了,都还没有买。
× 策略6: GAB 应该会等到华人过年后再看看。
× 策略7: 考虑买 Maybulk。

Top Glove Q4 profit more than doubles to RM56.8m

Published: 2009/10/09

The world's largest rubber glove maker, Top Glove Corp Bhd (7113), more than doubled its fourth-quarter net profit, driven by strong demand for its products amid the ongoing flu scare and cost-saving measures.


The company also declared a final dividend of 15 sen a share, bringing the total payment for the full year to 22 sen, double what it paid in 2008.

Top Glove made a net profit of RM56.8 million for the quarter to August 31 2009. Revenue was up 17.2 per cent to RM427.

Its full-year net profit was RM169.2 million, a 54 per cent jump, while revenue was up 11 per cent to RM1.53 billion.

This is also its best yearly net profit since 2001 and its highest dividend payout in nine years.
"The continuing strong profit growth shows that Top Glove is efficient and had adapted well to the challenging business environment resulting from cost-saving measures implemented at all factories," chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee-Chai said in a press release.

The group now had a net cash position of RM177 million and some RM197.2 million cash in the bank as at August 31 2009.

With strong profit growth, Lim said Top Glove is optimistic of its future despite ongoing global economic challenges.

"With a large customer base spread over more than 180 countries worldwide and with a diversified range of good quality products, coupled with a team of dedicated employees, we are confident in achieving continuous growth and good profitable performance in next financial year," he said.

To meet rising demand, Top Glove is in the process of installing additional nine latex concentrate centrifuge machines in Thailand with targeted completion by December 2009.

The glove maker also said it will build its 21st factory in Klang with construction scheduled to be completed in July next year. It now produces 31.5 billion gloves a year and has more than 850 customers worldwide.

Top Glove finances will support expansionTop Glove finances will support expansion

Published: 2009/10/09

Top Glove Corp Bhd's solid financial position is expected to support its expansion plan and dividend return, said MIDF Research today.

Top Glove, with a net cash position of RM176.6 million or 58.4 sen per share as at 4QFY09, has said it plans to instal 16 production lines at its factory.

The company also plans to construct a new factory, which will house 16 production lines, and targeted for complettion by July 2010.

"All in, a total of three billion pieces per annum will be added to the existing capacity of 31.5 billion pieces per annum," MIDF Research said in a research note today.


The group, it said will continue to benefit from an increasing demand for gloves following the H1N1 outbreak.

"We also believe, stock up activities will also boost orders for medical glove," it added.

Agreeing with this, OSK Research in its research note said, developing countries such as those in Latin America, China and India, would further spur demand for the company''s medical gloves.

"We continue to like Top Glove for its market leadership of a commanding 24 per cent of the global market," OSK Research added.

Top Glove, which recorded a better-than-expected result, would remained profitable on sustained demand and weaker US dollar assumption when compared with FY09.

MIDF Research said as such, it had raised its financial year 2010 forecast earning for the company by 14.9 per cent, to RM180.2 million.

Top Glove's 4QFY09 pre-tax profit rose 45.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to RM79 million from RM54.3 million previously, while revenue climbed 14.9 per cent from RM372 million to RM427.3 million. -- BERNAMA


Top Glove to beef up capacity

Friday October 9, 2009

Top Glove to beef up capacity

By EILEEN HEE


PETALING JAYA: Top Glove Corp Bhd, the world’s largest glove manufacturer, expects its two new factories to beef up production capacity by 10% next year, said executive director Lim Cheong Guan.

He said the group was in the process of installing 16 new glove production lines in the factories, both located in Klang.

“We will grow organically and add on three billion pieces capacity a year,” he told Starbiz, adding that the factories would be completed by February and July next year.

At present Top Glove has 19 glove factories and two latex concentrate plants, operating 355 production lines with a production capacity of 31.5 billion pieces of gloves per year.

The company’s two latex concentrate plants in Thailand supply 50% of its latex concentrate materials.

“In order to meet the increase demand of latex concentrate for our glove production, we will install additional nine concentrate centrifuge machines in Thailand,” he said. This is targeted to be completed by December.

The company registered a 121% increase in net profit for the fourth quarter ended August 31 to RM56.8mil or 19.18 sen per share from its corresponding quarter last year, due mainly to effective cost control, improvements in glove quality and aggressive marketing strategies which helped to sustain Top Glove’s market leader position.

Revenue increased to RM427.4mil in the fourth quarter from RM364.5mil a year earlier.

For the full year, Top Glove’s revenue was up 11% at RM1.53bil while net profit increased to RM169.2mil from RM110.1mil.

The good performance has prompted the rubber glove maker to bump up its dividend payout by 100% for FY09, from 11 sen per share.

Lim said the company was also open to further increase its market share via mergers and acquisitions, “if there is a suitable candidate.”

Top Glove payout soars on record profit

Published October 9, 2009

Top Glove payout soars on record profit

MALAYSIA'S largest glove maker, Top Glove Corporation, plans to reward its shareholders with a bumper dividend payout of 22 sen per share or double the previous year's, following record earnings on the back of surging demand for rubber gloves.

H1N1 driven: Top Glove plans to boost its 19 factories by opening two more next year, with 16 production lines targeted for completion in Q1 and 16 more by July

Seen as a natural proxy for the heightened global demand for rubber gloves after the outbreak of the H1N1 virus this year, shares of Top Glove have doubled this year, yesterday rising another 18 sen or 2.25 per cent to RM8.15, versus the benchmark increase of one per cent.

In line with the industry, Top Glove's earnings have been rising steadily as fear of the H1N1 contagion drove orders. For the last quarter ended August, Top Glove's profit jumped 121 per cent to RM55 million (S$22.5 million) on revenue of RM427 million.

Full-year earnings improved 56 per cent to RM168 million while revenue increased 11 per cent to RM1.53 billion. Earnings per share came to 57.34 sen, up from 37.18 sen previously.

Top Glove's board has recommended a special dividend of six sen a share in addition to the final dividend of nine sen per share, in view of the 'good performance and stronger cash flow position' of RM197 million in cash and free cash flow of RM260 million. An interim dividend of seven sen a share had been paid earlier.

The proposed payout was the highest since the company was listed in 2001 and executive chairman Lim Wee-Chai was confident of continued growth and 'good profitable performance' in the current fiscal year.

Malaysian companies have barely been able to keep up with the surge in demand. Top Glove's plant utilisation came to 90 per cent in the last quarter while others claim near full capacity.

Where others are cutting back, glove makers are ramping up, albeit cautiously. Top Glove's 19 factories and their 355 production lines already churn out 31.5 billion pieces annually, but the company plans to open two new factories next year, with 16 production lines targeted for completion in the first quarter of next year and another 16 lines by July.

Even cost increases - owing to higher latex prices - have been successfully absorbed by buyers; with Top Glove having raised its average selling price by 7-11 per cent. Its profit after tax margin for FY09 rose by some 11 per cent - only in FY01 has the margin been better at 11.4 per cent.

Analysts say that its defensive earnings support higher valuations, and Hwang-DBS has raised its target valuation to RM8.50 based on 14 times price earnings.

Mr Lim, who controls 35 per cent of the company he founded, appears to have taken shareholder feedback to heart. It was at a media and analyst briefing last year that he had solicited views, and found a preference for fatter dividends and more bonus shares.

Small by global standards, the glove player's market capitalisation now stands at almost RM2.5 billion. Its free float is some 51 per cent.


Top Glove : Medi-Flex still in the red Outperform Company Update

Thursday, October 8, 2009

- Medi-Flex (60% owned by Top Glove), reported yesterday full-year FY09 core net loss of RM4.6m as
compared to a net loss of RM5.8m in FY08.
- The improvement in earnings was largely due to: 1) lower latex cost; 2) favourable exchange rate
movements; and 3) improvement in cost as the factory was relocated to Banting from a rented factory in
Klang during the year.
- HoH, revenue rose by 34.3% on the back of higher utilisation rates. 2H09's net loss, however, fell to
RM6.0m (1H09 net loss of RM2.5m) as a result of a RM4.0m write-off in inventory and property, plant and
equipment, mitigated by lower finance cost (-83.9% hoh) and lower associate losses (-48.4% hoh).
- Management did not provide any turnaround target for Medi-flex this time round but expects losses to
narrow further in 1H10.
- No change to our forecasts for Top Glove and fair value of RM8.80 (based on target CY10 PER of 15x).

Top Glove Q4 profit more than doubles

Published: 2009/10/08

TOP Glove Corp, the world’s largest rubber-glove maker, posted fourth-quarter profit that more than doubled to the highest in at least eight years as the swine flu outbreak bolstered demand for protective gloves.

Net income rose to RM56.8 million (US$17 million), or 19.18 sen a share, in the three months ended Aug 31, from 25.1 million, or 8.53 sen, a year earlier, Selangor, Malaysia-based Top Glove said today.

That’s the highest three- month profit since at least the quarter ended Nov 30, 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The pandemic flu outbreak has raised awareness for health care and boosted global demand for protective gloves, the company said. CIMB Investment Bank Bhd yesterday raised its price estimate for the stock by 15 per cent to RM9.86 because it expected Top Glove’s profit for the year to exceed the brokerage’s estimate.


Full-year net income climbed 54 per cent to a record RM169.2 million, beating Top Glove’s own projection of RM143 million, the company said today. Fourth-quarter sales increased 17 per cent to RM427.4 million.

Top Glove rose 1.8 per cent to RM8.11 as of the 12:30 p.m. break in Kuala Lumpur trading, while the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index added 0.3 per cent. The stock has more than doubled this year, after falling for two straight years.

The company said it will give a final dividend of 15 sen a share, bringing the total payment for the 12-month period to 22 sen, double the 11 sen it paid a year earlier.

The glove maker also said it will build its 21st factory in Klang, outside Kuala Lumpur, with construction scheduled to be completed in July next year. The company currently produces 31.5 billion gloves a year and exports to more than 180 countries.

Over 340,000 cases of swine flu, also known as H1N1, including more than 4,100 deaths, have been reported globally since the outbreak began in April, according to World Health Organization figures on Oct 2.- Bloomberg

Top Glove to expand production

Oct 07 2009

KUCHING: Top Glove Corporation’s (Top Glove) expansion plan to meet increasing demand for gloves is on track.AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) in a research report yesterday cited that Top Glove’s twentieth and twenty-first factory are expected to be completed in February and July next year respectively.

This will enable the world largest rubber glove manufacturer to produce another 10 per cent to 34.5 billion pieces of gloves per year from an additional 32 production lines by end of the fiscal year of 2010.

The management of Top Glove indicated that orders from South American countries such as Argentina and Brazil and new markets in Chile and Colombia remain robust.

Besides that, higher average selling prices and a lower cost structure which provide better than expected sustainable margins will also contribute to higher earnings.

Top Glove is expected to report better than expected earnings results in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009. Its earnings in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2009 are expected to beat its third quarter of fiscal year 2009 results of RM42 million.

The higher earnings are expected to come from the contribution of recurring orders derived from sales of basic powdered gloves to South Americans countries. In addition, the research house forecasted that the demand for rubber gloves remains robust, at a healthy growth rate of 8 per cent to 10 per cent annually.

“We estimate the Influen­za A(H1N1) related buying to spur the global demand by an additional 14 billion to15 billion pieces on top of the 11 billion to 17 billion pie­ces from organic growth,” the research firm said.

It also raised Top Glove’s earnings forecast for financial year end 2009 to financial year end 2011 by 2 per cent to 8 per cent.

It anticipates Top Glove to achieve a net profit of RM163 million for the full year which translates into an increase of 48 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y).

“As such, we have increased our financial year 2010 and financial year 2011 dividend forecasts to 18 and 19 sen per share, respec-tively, premised on a 30 per cent dividend payout.

“However, we are keeping our forecast of 15 sen per share for the financial year 2009. We will not be surprised if the manage­ment were to choose to reward shareholders,” said AmResearch.

It also said the group is in a strong net cash position with cash holdings of RM173 million for the nine month of fiscal year 2009.

The management of Top Glove also revealed that the group would be exempted from the new 4 sen per kg levy on imported rubber for re-export. The exemption was given by the Malaysian Rubber Board for glove manufacturers importing raw latex for their production.

The research house pointed out that valuation for Top Glove remains attractive even though the stock has outperformed the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) by 51 per cent on a relative basis year-to-date. It retained its recommendation on the group’s proven earnings deliverance backed by solid fundamentals, market share dominance in the industry, as well as better trading liquidity.

It revised the fair value of the stock to RM8.45 per share from RM8.30 per share which offers an upside potential of 18 per cent.