为何今天手套股带量上涨

一下只是我个人的小小猜测：

據彭博(Bloomberg)週三援引一份美國國會的報告報導﹐一份擬議中的減稅方案可能會促使美國企業將7,000億美元利潤匯回本土﹐美元將因此受到提振。

報導稱﹐美國國會稅收聯合委員會(Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation)的一項研究顯示﹐恢復《本土投資法案》(Homeland Investment Act)將導致企業匯回國內的
利潤達到上次實施該法案實施時匯回利潤的兩倍。

根據該法案﹐企業把利潤匯回美國可以獲得減稅優惠。該法案上一次實施是在2004年。美國國會目前正在就是否恢復該法案進行辯論。

彭博稱﹐2004年的減稅優惠推動美元指數上升了13%。

这是对美元的利多，强势的美元对马来西亚的手套股有利。
当然减税法案还要等待国会辩论通过，但是消息带给了大家无限幻想。
所以股价上升是当然的，如果无法通过，股价将打回原形。

因为有人早知道，所以等到大家发现美元利多时，又是大户套利的时候了。

Topglove 2010 Q4 业绩报告重点

2010 Q3 gross profit margin = 14.4%
2010 Q4 gross profit margin = 6.5% (drop 54%)

下季 gross profit margin 应该会更少。

Balance sheet 目前接近 0 负债
total cash 大于 total liability

马币走强，接下来 gross profit margin 和eps 会越来越少，暂时不看好。

Supermx
2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 21.6%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = 17.8%
2010 Q3 gross profit margin = ????% (I estimate 8.1%)


Harta
2009 Q4 gross profit margin = 35%
2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 25.8%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = ????%


to be continue...

（转）蚂蚁小弟 Harta 分享

蚂蚁小弟对 Harta 的分享

http://antsmovemyhouse.blogspot.com/2010/04/blog-post.html

Harta 的 power point slide

http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_Hartalega.pdf

Topglove 的 power point slide
http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_top_glove.pdf

Supermx 的 power point slide
http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_Supermax.pdf

Supermax revises profit guidance

Published: 2010/04/14

Supermax Corp Bhd is optimistic of a bullish financial performance this year as its expects earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2010 to exceed its earnings guidance for the year.

Executive chairman cum group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai said the company was revising its EPS target from a minimum of 50 sen per share to a minimum of 62 sen per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.

He said the revised profit guidance for the current year took into account latex price fluctuations, foreign exchange and the possibility of a hike in natural gas and electricity tariffs.

Supermax, the world's second largest rubber glove manufacturer, is expected to announce its first-quarter results soon.

It had projected a turnover of over RM1 billion for the current financial year based on current latex prices, the expansion of two new plants and the installation of new production lines.

Thai said the new production lines and the construction of two plants in Meru and Bukit Kapar, Klang, would require an investment of RM130 million.

"The plant in Meru is expected to be fully commissioned by June or July while the plant in the Glove City project in Bukit, Kapar, is expected to be commissioned by 2011," Thai told reporters after International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed's visit to Supermax's factory in Sungai Buloh today.

For the financial year ending Dec 2011 Supermax projected a revenue of RM1.5 billion.

Thai said the rubber glove industry was a resilient industry and would not be affected by price increases nor the strengthening ringgit.

Shares of rubber glove manufacturers were among the major losers yesterday, after rubber prices surged to a 20-month high in Japan while the ringgit strengthened against the US dollar.

Thai said some of the issues affecting the Malaysian rubber industry and Supermax were the non-availability of natural gas supply for new expansion projects, need for consistency in foreign labour policies, lack of advance notice of utilities rate hike, increasing cost of doing business and shortage of quality middle management staff. -- Bernama

二哥：Glove Industry （转）

http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2010/04/glove-industry.html

Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.

A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-

1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.

2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.

3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.

4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.

I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.

原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提高價格應對

原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提 高價格應對
大馬財經 2010-04-14 17:50
（吉隆坡）頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組）可通過提高產品價格，克服原料成本上漲和匯率波動的衝擊。

這間公司執行董事林將說：“任何衝擊效應將是短暫的。手套是醫葯保健領域的必需品，比較龐大的醫葯成本來說，手套價格的增加對最終用戶而言是微不足道 的。”

頂級手套是全球最大手套廠商，近期股價受膠價走高和馬幣匯率升值的雙重打擊，股價重挫。

成本漲價轉嫁給顧客

不過，林將源相信，膠價上漲和匯率波動都是短期現象，公司可將衝擊轉嫁到顧客身上。

他針對膠價近期漲至20月新高，馬幣升值迅速，接受《路透社》訪問時說，除了調漲手套售價，這間公司也可以對衝馬幣升值衝擊，就是從泰國尋求膠液，因為當 地膠液是以美元交易。

手套股本週面對龐大賣壓，頂級手套在過去5個交易日下跌了8%，週二（4月13日）重挫60仙至12令吉90仙水平，今日（週三，4月14日）繼續下滑， 一度下跌30仙至12令吉60仙，最後以12令吉80仙作收，下跌10仙。

東京橡膠期貨因為原油漲價和現貨供應緊窄，攀至20個月新高；馬幣今年迄今漲7%，一度來到3.17的23個月新高。由於膠液是手套主要原料，而手套交易 以美元為主，這“雙升”預料威脅手套業者的賺幅。

大馬膠手套供應全球超過60%的膠手套需求，2009年的Ａ流感爆發後，促使市場對膠手套的需求大增。

林將源說，用來生產膠手套的膠液價格，可能在5月下降，目前的供應緊縮情況主要是氣候影響，預料在稍後時會有改善。

不需擔心產量過剩問題

自2月乾旱季節開始後，大馬泰國的橡膠供應已逐漸減少。

林將源也強調，有關膠手套擴充過快，快速建新廠導致產量過剩的隱憂是不確實的。

由於需求急增，導致大馬膠手套公司，包括頂級手套、速伯瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）和高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產 品組）等手套公司都積極建新廠以迎合需求，使市場擔心供過於求。

林將源說：“手套供應的增加是逐步進入市場的，一旦有供應過剩的現象出現，廠商會立刻調整擴充計劃，以免影響市場供需平衡。”

星洲日報／財經‧2010.04.14

Glove makers continue to slide

Written by Surin Murugiah

Wednesday, 14 April 2010 00:18

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove manufacturers were among the major losers on April 13, led by TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [] and KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD [], on concerns over raw material costs after rubber prices jumped to a 20-month high in Japan, and the ringgit’s appreciation against the US dollar. Top Glove lost 60 sen or 4.4% to RM12.90, Kossan fell 35 sen or 4.4% to RM7.56 and SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD [] shed 25 sen or 3.6% to RM6.64. LATEXX PARTNERS BHD [] gave up 22 sen to RM3.77, HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD [] 18 sen to RM7.60 and ADVENTA BHD [] eight sen to RM3.37. The FBM KLCI slipped 5.09 points or 0.4% to 1,334.52 on April 13. Analysts were mixed on glove makers’ prospects following the battering. MIDF Research said the slump on April 13 was a healthy correction and investors should view any weakness in the share prices of the glove counters as an opportunity to accumulate for short-term trading. It said the companies’ shares rebounded strongly after receding by 11.9% to 14.4% at end-February and early March, adding there was potential upside as the rubber glove makers’ 1Q10 results were expected to be favourable with potential bonus issues looming. “We are maintaining our trading buy recommendation and all our target prices (TP) for the glove companies under our coverage. Our TP for Top Glove is RM14.68, based on 17 times EPS10, after factoring its net cash of 88 sen per share. Kossan and Hartalega’s TPs are RM9.04 and RM8.80 respectively, derived from 14 times and 14.5 times PER,” it said in a note released on April 13 afternoon. The research house said the outlook for the glove sector remained favourable, adding that with the current demand-supply disparity, glove manufacturers were enjoying better cost-passing power. Top Glove indicated that it was able to pass on up to 90%-100% of the variance in costs to customers, it said. “Besides, the time lag for glove producers to pass on the additional costs is shorter now compared with roughly two months previously. “This is manifested by their sustainable strong earnings margin despite higher latex price and weaker US dollar. We believe that earnings margin should be safeguarded in 1H10 given higher plant utilisation rate and better pricing power,” it said. MIDF Research said excess supply in 2H10 and beyond was its main concern, as the glove companies it had visited were on track with their expansion plans to cater for increasing global demand. “Although we are positive on the consistent global glove demand growth, we are also concerned about the potential excess glove production capacity, which we believe will affect earnings margin, and hence lower earnings growth moving forward (we still expect positive growth rate). “We gather from industry players that excess supply is a risk but it only affects a certain segment, namely the low-end products. This is due to the barrier of entry for the higher-value and R&D-focused products,” MIDF said. The research house added, however, that its concerns might be eased by stronger-than-expected global glove demand and the delay in the expansion plans. Other risks were valuation issues, as the three glove companies under its coverage were trading at above their respective five-year average PER, it said. OSK Investment Research senior analyst Jason Yap maintained his overweight recommendation on the glove sector, and reiterated his buy calls on Top Glove, Supermax and Kossan. He said the fall on April 13 was a correction, with punters taking profit as the share prices had reached high levels. “The concerns about raw material costs will also dissipate, as latex price is seasonal and should taper down after May. The companies can also pass on the cost to end-buyers. “We expect absolute figure of bottom line to be retained but margins to gradually decline because of the higher revenue base if glove makers increase prices to take into account raw material prices or currency exchange,” he said. Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research and chief chartist Lee Cheng Hooi said the rubber glove sector was generally already highly priced, as evident from the fluctuation in prices over the past few trading days. “The stocks in the sector have had quite a lengthy positive run already. We would recommend investors to take profit and step aside for now,” he said. Lee said the key support level for Top Glove was RM12.25, Supermax RM6.04, Kossan RM7.19 and Hartalega RM7.62. If prices went below these levels it would be critical, he added. He said Latexx and Adventa were already trading below their key support levels of RM3.83 and RM3.49, respectively. Last week, AmResearch downgraded the glove sector to underweight. It noted that demand growth had probably peaked and should decelerate going forward, thus shift of pricing power from manufacturers to consumers would accelerate, exacerbated by additional production capacity as early as mid-year. AmResearch, which had downgraded Top Glove and Kossan to hold with fair values of RM12.50 and RM7.65, respectively, told The Edge Financial Daily on April 13 it was maintaining its recommendation on the sector and target prices for the two stocks.

增幅達頂．賺幅收窄 券商下修手套股評級

增幅達頂．賺幅收窄 , 券商下修手套股評級
April 11, 2010 18:03

（吉隆坡11日訊）橡膠手套需求成長已達頂峰，業者盈利賺幅或收窄，券商下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”（Underweight），頂級手套 （TOPGLOV，7113，主要板工業）和高產柅品（7153，主要板工業）降至“守住”（Hold）。

大馬研究分析報告說，頂級手套截至今年2 月底次季財報已顯示，手套需求趨向正常的跡象。

“據我們查詢，頂級手套交貨截止時間，已從2010財年首季的90天，減至次季的50天。”

報 告透露，在需求正常交易階段，上述兩家公司持續錄得30到40天的交貨期。

“這意味著已達頂峰的手套需求成長未來將趨低，製造業的定價權力 將加速轉移至消費者，今年中落實的額外產能計劃將使這情況惡化。”

報告指出，我國3大手套生產商將在今年底，提高產量多達90億至120億 隻手套，至于額外需求預測介于140億至150億隻，所以消費者未來或越來越不願意接受更高售價。

“乳膠價趨高，令吉兌美元匯報疲軟和能源 成本或變高，提前為業者帶來賺幅壓縮的憂慮。”

大馬研究因而下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”，財測下調后的頂級手套和高產柅品評級降至“守 住”，合理價各減至12.50令吉7.65令吉。

週五閉市時，頂級手套報13.70令吉，揚12仙，成交量64萬7500股；高產柅品收 7.99令吉，，滑14仙，成交量90萬3000股。

（转）实例分析 – 找到问题的启点? – 精华版

http://klseblog.com/2010/03/29/%E5%AE%9E%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90-%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E7%9A%84%E5%90%AF%E7%82%B9-%E7%B2%BE%E5%8D%8E%E7%89%88/

感谢小旺子的分享。

为了不让股友有先入为主的看法，我暂时不揭露这二家上市公司的名字，待分析后才揭开谜底。

二份年报皆以年尾结账，全部以 RM ‘000。

先看Company A，收入只增加区区的 RM42,185，但是应收账务Account Receivable 竟然升了 212%，生意没做大，应收账务却增加二倍，现金反而少了。

大佬，请你帮忙算问题到底出在那里？ 应收账务从何方来? 我没去看 Financial Note，但对212% 觉得不可思议。

再来看看应付帐款 Account Payable 更离奇的增加 683%，这回更好玩。到底是不是向供应商买货，怎么存货少了400+% ？ 不增反减。是买 software license ??

大佬，再请你帮忙算算这盘账怎么样凑的 ?

还是看 Company B 有啥毛病？

收入与去年差不多，没成长。

但是应收账务少了 43%，哗! 今年不错，收回不少钱。

那要证明这数字有否说骗话，哈! 哈! 现金猛升 284%。看到现金升倍数，别得意忘形，虚报收入常有之事， 查查应收账务减少与这价值差不多，这公司大慨没说慌话。

问题又来了，去年收入大同小异，怎么没增加多现金？欲知现金详情怎样来？ 请读 Income Statement & Cash Flow Statement，原来这 Statement 会解释钱从那里来。

读年报要一面读，一面自我发问题，这是窍门。

揭谜底时间，你猜到了吗?
Company A: DIS 科技股 (SC 怀疑账目有问题，停牌解释，现已复牌，)

Announcement 如下:-

The Board of Directors of DIST wishes to announce that pending further investigation, we are gravely concerned that the quarterly reports for the period as stated in the attachment maybe mistated due to an alleged fraud reported by a major customer, Starlight Marketing Limited involving one of their staff as the sales amount involved was RM131,328,496 (detail as per attached) and balance owing to the Group as at 31 December 2009 amounted to RM82,066,290.00 which was very significant to the Company.

RM82,066,290 这数目跟我们分析的应收账务 RM89,273,000相差不远。

Company B: Supermax

Malaysian Glove Makers Rally on Obama’s Health Bill

http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=6018338221788763788

Top Glove Corp. led a rally by Malaysian rubber glove makers on speculation President Barack Obama’s U.S. health bill will boost sales.

Top Glove, the world’s biggest, climbed 1.7 percent to a record 13.14 ringgit as of 12:26 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd., the nation’s third-largest, increased 3.1 percent to 7.64 ringgit, and Adventa Bhd. gained 2.4 percent to 3.48 ringgit. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose 0.3 percent.

Obama’s $940 billion overhaul of U.S. health legislation subsidizes coverage for uninsured Americans, financed by Medicare cuts to hospitals and fees or taxes on insurers, drugmakers, medical-device companies and Americans earning more than $200,000 a year.

The bill may “lead to higher demand for examination gloves in the U.S. when Americans start to visit health-care centers more frequently,” Jason Yap, an analyst at OSK Research Sdn, said in a report today. It will “put more strain on the supply of examination gloves, which is still catching up with demand.”

Adventa, Kossan and Hartalega Holdings Bhd. are the main beneficiaries of the U.S. health-care bill since high-grade gloves account for the bulk of their products targeted at developed countries such as the U.S., he said.

Top Glove and Supermax Corp. will also benefit as the U.S. accounts for 25 percent and 42 percent of their total sales respectively, he said.

Premium Sales

“The strong demand will reaffirm their ability to sell the gloves at a premium and pass on 100 percent of the cost increase to customers,” Yap said. He has an “overweight” rating on the rubber-glove sector.

Malaysian glove makers have posted higher earnings in recent years and expanded capacity as the global flu outbreak bolstered demand. Top Glove on March 17 said second-quarter profit almost doubled to 70.5 million ringgit ($21.2 million) from a year earlier on higher sales.

The glove makers’ earnings are on “growth hormones” and their expansion plans “are intact as demand is still set to rise this year,” CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. analyst Terence Wong said in a report today. “Many of them are expanding capacity in a big way.”

supermx 红股已证实，详情3月初公布，大家拭目以待

http://peng01.blogspot.com/2010/02/supermx.html
这是之前提到的，消息已获证实。

supermx 红股已证实，详情3月初公布，大家拭目以待

Supermax: Future Prospects and Internal target for FY2010

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/ba387758ae37412b482568a300466fb6/da19a43ca011aaac482576cf003baf58/$FILE/SCB%20Q4%2709%20Bursa%20Anncmnt%20Notes%205pm.pdf


Prospects

The rubber glove industry continues to be on a strong growth path despite the current global financial challenges and global economic uncertainties. In addition to the organic growth of 8-12% annually, global demand has been boosted by the ongoing H1N1 pandemic and growing demand from emerging markets as well as the healthcare and hygiene sectors.

The Group currently operates 8 wholly owned manufacturing plants and has 5 overseas distribution centres. The growing demand which is continuously being tapped by the Group’s wide global network of 750 distributors in over 145 countries and 5 distribution centres augurs well for the Group in terms of business stability and sustainability in the long term. The Group’s investment in overseas distribution since year 2001 has benefited and yielded greater market penetration in selected market territories.

The ongoing refurbishment works as well as the construction of its new Meru plant which encompasses the installation of 16 new lines with added capacity of 2.3 billion pieces of gloves per annum, is also expected to contribute to the Group’s performance going forward.

For the current financial year, the Group has achieved earnings per share of 48.37 sen, which had already surpassed its original internal target of a minimum 27 sen for year 2009 as well as the revised target of 44 sen. In view of this better than projected performance,

the Company has now revised the internal target for FY2010 from the initial target of 50 sen earnings per share to 62 sen or RM168 million Profit after Tax for FY2010.

Supermx 很大可能会发红股

从 millionpool 专区得来的消息。。。

Supermax CEO的诚意还不错嘛。。

Supermax CEO的诚意还不错嘛。。:$

我今天email 问supermx关于tresury share distributeed as special dividen的事，想不到还是CEO Stanley Thai亲自这么快就回我了。。哈哈。。

MARCH 会给我们as Bonus Issue??

DATO SERI Stanley Thai 的reply如下：


The Gain from Sale of Treasury Shares is capitalized in the Capital Reserve in Share Premium Account as one of the Balance Sheet items.

It would be distributed to Shareholders in the form of Bonus Issue among others.

The company would make the announcement via Investment Banker once the IB is appointed in early March,2010

Thank you

Dato'Seri Stanley Thai
Group Managing Director
Supermax Corporation
Text & Cell: +1630 696 1588
www.supergloves.com

Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

--------------------------------------------------------------------
SUPERMX的Q4季度報告 (attachment)后得到以下資料。。。
As at 31/12/2009:
Share Capital (’000): 134,125
Reserve (’000): 423,874
其中317,326為Retained Profit

106,548 為Reserve attributable to Capital

那庫存股的盈利1955萬就納入了Reserve attributable to Capital， 現在有一億左右。。。

所以share capital 134,125 vs 106,548。。。
所以發紅股的機率相當大.

经过网友证实，stanley 已经在FB公开红股消息，所以99% 准确，announcement date 未知。
Supermx bonus issue, March 2010

黑豹 supermx 2010 全年业绩与股息预测

以下是我本人与网友millionpool 的研究心得

星洲日报 10 feb 2010




supermx 官网截图, dividen policy for year 2009




Net Profit=85.6 mil (9 months) + 41.66 mil (4th Qtr)estimated by 新洲日报
=127.26 mil

The company wishes to announce that effective from FY12/2009, the Company has revised the dividend policy from 20% PAT to 20% PAT + Special Dividend for any extraordinary Profits.
1. Normal dividend 20% on PAT
117 mil x 20% = 23.4 mil


For FY12/2009, the Special Dividend for any extraordinary profits would derive from: any extra ordinary profits after meeting the minimum target of RM117 PAT .
For example, if the final PAT for FY12/2009 is RM125 million, an extraordinary profit of RM8 million would be distributed as Special Dividend to the Shareholders.
2. Special dividend on PAT excess 117 mil
127.26 mil – 117 mil = 10.26 mil


the capital gains as a results of the sale of 5,560,000 Treasury Shares would be distributed to the Shareholders. As at October 22,2009 , the closing price was RM3.95.

from bursa announcement:
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS%5Cedmswebh.nsf/LsvAllByID/482576120041BDAA4825769A003345CA?OpenDocument

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS%5Cedmswebh.nsf/LsvAllByID/482576120041BDAA4825769300398D7F?OpenDocument

Total amount received for treasury shares sold ($$)

:

14,191,138.30 + 8,636,670.00

3. Special dividend on disposal of treasury share
22.8 mil – 5.9 mil = 16.9 mil （estimate）


So Total dividend = 23.4 mil + 10.26 mil + 16.9 mil
= 50.56 mil

Dividend pershare = 50.56 mil / 269.2 mil
= RM 0.18 TE (estimate)
扣出之前的中期股息 2.5 sen
这次的final dividen 至少都有 15 sen

现在股价RM5.12, dividen 18 sen, DY 有3.5% 最高ＤＹ在手套股同行里．．．．

1. normal dividen 8 sen
2. special dividen 4 sen
3. sell treasury share dividen 6 sen

Topglove now PE 16
Harta PE also 14++
Supermx 现在股价RM5.12，EPS 47 sen, PE 10.90 only.....
如和harta一样PE14，Supermx股价最少RM6.58 （个人意见）

业绩下拜一公布
明天开市ref价 5.12，今晚米国青青河边草，早上应该会开高，阻力应该在 5.3 - 5.32。
最后一句：买卖自负

Rubber glove companies enjoy pricing power and steadily rising sales

http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/01/rubber-glove-companies-are-still.html

Judging from the capacity expansion by rubber glove companies, it appears that larger glove companies like Top Glove, Supermax and Sempermed (Thailand) have more moderate expansion plans as a percentage of existing capacity, while smaller ones like Latexx and Adventa have more aggressive expansion plans and are likely to show higher earnings growth in 2010.

An oversupply of rubber gloves is unlikely in 2010 but could be a worry in 2011 when more capacity comes onstream. Assuming that the 150 billion-a-year medical glove market grows by 8% a year, an additional capacity of 12 billion gloves will be required per year. Rubber glove companies have been able to pass on higher costs arising from rising latex prices, with Top Glove increasing prices again in January 2010.

Nevertheless, producers of nitrile gloves may now enjoy better margins as the cost advantage that latex gloves enjoy over nitrile gloves may have narrowed as latex prices have risen faster than nitrile prices. Ratings of Malaysian rubber glove companies are still cheaper than those of Ansell, SSL International and the Malaysian market.

The Edge
1.2.2010
By Choong Khuat Hock


Comments:

The whole glove industry is growing. Due to capacity expansion and their smaller sizes, the smaller glove companies are expected to show faster earnings growth than the bigger glove companies.

The industry business is still resilient. Profit margin is either maintained or improving. Glove companies are still able to pass the cost to the customers. How long will this last?

This industry is highly competitive. The business is driven by volume and price. When capacity to supply outstrips demand, those companies with durable competitive advantage are expected to survive. Those low cost producers will be the big winners and leaders. Those companies that automate their production with good quality control will probably be able to lower their costs per unit through increasing productivity. It is possible that those leveraging on low human labour costs now with no or few plans for increasing automation of the manufacturing processes, may eventually lose out to the former in the future both in terms of quality, productivity and costs.