nuffnang

Friday, December 31, 2010

2011 年投资组合总结

http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=1207&extra=&page=1

2010 年全年总回筹 +26.15%
2009 年全年总回筹 +45.37%
Financial Year End: 2012 年 12月31号 总结,会将全年回筹加入本钱里,明年从 0% 开始算。

目前Portfolio 组合
genm
maybulk
paramon
tongher

目前现金 55% / 持股 45%

5月的调整,手痒把票卖到完,少赚了一大截。

走宝 counter
Titan 1.2X 到私有化
QL 3.8X 到 5 块多
Harta 7.7X 到 8 块多

老鼠屎 counter
jcy 将整体回筹拉低了4% 多
和 success。
以后要减少偷鸡次数了

从之前的组合
topglove,harta,cscstel,QL,titan

到现在的 maybulk, tongher, paramon
个人偏爱 small cap,小资本,高成长,高风险。

2011主题
医疗,保健,绿色能源,基建,还有天然资源 !!!

明年看涨!!!

Friday, December 24, 2010

什么是 BDI 指数

BDI指数(Baltic Dry Index,英文简称BDI,波罗的海干散货运价指数)

什么是BDI指数

  'BDI指数代表国际干散货运输市场走势的晴雨表。 是目前世界上衡量国际海运情况的权威指数, 是反映国际间贸易情况的领先指数

  1999年的9月1日,波罗的海交易所将原来反映巴拿马型船和好望角型船的BFI指数分解成BCI指数BPI指数两个指数,同年11月1日,在BCI指数BPI指数BHI指数基础上产生的BDI取代BFI。

  BDI的指数计算方法是将BPI、BCI和BHI指数相加,取平均数,然后乘以一个固定的换算系数0.998007990得出的。


什 么是干散货运输

  远洋运输一般分为集装箱运输干散货运输Dry Bulk Shipping)、油轮运输三种形式。其中集装箱运输主要用于下游制成品运输, 如汽车、电子产品、纺织品等,单位是TEU标准箱);干散货运输主要适用于铁矿石、煤炭、粮食、水泥等上游初级产品的运输,单位为吨;油轮运输则主要适用于原油、液化天然气等。

  由于干散货航运主要体现的是全球初级产品的需求, 因此是经 济的领先指标,具有毛利高、价格波 动大的特点。而集装箱航运则主要和中下游产品相 关,并不能很好地反映宏观需求,更不是什么领先指标,其运价波动也要平缓的多。

BDI指数的历史

  由伦敦航运市场每天向世界公布。它是一个综合性指数,由全球传统的12条主要干散货船航线的运价按照各自在航运市场上的重要程度和所 占比重构成。它是随着波罗的海国际运价期货交易所的设立而出现的。波罗的海运价指数以1985年1月4日为1000。最初由13条航线的程租运价构成, 后来调整为12条航线。近几年来由于国际政治、经济形势的发展,使一些航线的重要程度发生了变化。为此,波罗的海交易所于1990年8月6日和1991年2月5日分 别就构成运价指数的航线进行了调整。在波罗的海交易所内,有一个由8家会员公司组成的小组,负责计算当天的波罗的海运价指数。每天早晨,8家公司即 将各自认为在当天可行的各条航线运价水平或日租金水平,单独提交给会员小组,相互严格保密,以确保公平和准确;小组计算时减去最高和最低值,分别计算出个 航线的平均运价和日租金水平,再分别乘以换算常数,即得出各航线的换算指数;再将各航线的换算指数相加,其结果即为当天公布的波罗的海运价指数。

  波罗的海航交所是世界第一个也是历史最悠久的航运市场。1744年诞生于美国佛吉尼亚波罗的海咖啡屋,目前是设在英国伦敦的世界著名的 航运交易所,全球46个国家的656家公司都是波罗的海航交所的会员。为了满足客户的需要,波罗地海航交所于1985年开始发布日运价指数──BFI,该 指数是由若干条传统的干散货船航线的运价,按照各自在航运市场上的重要程度和所占比重构成的综合性指数。1999年,国际波罗的海综合运费指数(BDI) 取代了BFI,成为代表国际干散货运输市场走势的晴雨表。

  由此可见,该指数是目前世界上衡量国际海运情况的权威指数,是反映国际间贸易情况的领先指数。如果该指数出现显著的上扬,说明各国经济 情况良好,国际间的贸易火热。前几年由于中国的经济快速发展也带动了全球经济的复苏,全球对于原材料的需求大大增加,导致了海运的快速繁荣。2003年,BDI指数还只有不到3000点,而到了2004年,该指数 就翻了一番,达到了6000点以上,在2007年甚至高达万点,因此,中国和其他国家的贸易以及对于全球初级原材料的需求是导致国际海运价格上涨的主要原 因。而该指数上涨的同时我们也确实可以看到海运价格的上涨和目前商品市场上几个大宗原料的价格上涨的曲线是一致的。

  所以,作为很多期货市场战略投资者来说,对于该指数的关注程度不言而喻。


BDI指数的组成

  1、BCI指数(Baltic Capesize Index),波罗 的海海岬型指数,吨位:8万吨以上,主要运输货物:焦煤、燃煤、铁矿砂、磷矿石、铝矾土等工业原料,占BDI权重:1/3;

  2、BPI指数(Baltic Panamax Index),波罗的海 巴拿马指数,吨位:5~8万吨,主要运输货物:民生物资及谷物等大宗物资,占BDI权重:1/3;

  3、BHMI指数(Baltic Handymax Index),波罗 的海轻便型指数,吨位:5万吨以下,主要运输货物:磷肥、碳酸钾、木屑、水泥,占BDI权重:1/3。


BDI 指数的影响因素

  1、全球GDP成长 率。

  2、全球铁矿及煤矿运输需求量。

  3、全球谷物运输需求量。

  4、全球船吨数供给量。

  5、国际船用燃油平均油价、战争及天然灾难。

全球GDP成长率影响全球对铁矿及谷物运输的需求量;天然灾难使物资缺 乏,货品运输需求提高,使散装航运景气走扬。


BDI指数的作用

  一般认为,波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)的参考价值主要体现在以下几个方面:

  1. BDI指数是全球经济的缩影。全球经济过热期间,初级商品市场的需求增加,BDI指数也相应上涨。

  2. BDI指数相对客观。BDI指数不存在短线资金炒作的问题,如果短线资金进入大宗商品市场炒作,但同期BDI指数不涨的话,则大宗商品市场高企的价格就值得警惕。

  3. BDI指数与初级商品市场的价格正相关。也就是说,如果煤炭、有色金属、铁矿石等价格上涨,BDI指数一般也是要涨的。

  4. BDI指数与美元指数正相关。美元走 强一般反映了美国经济向好,由于美国经济在全球经济总量中占比较大,BDI指数与其正相关。

  5. BDI指数与美国股市走 势正相关。理由与美元指数相同。

冷眼分享集: 种植股评估四部曲

2010/12/24 6:17:06 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师
http://beta.nanyang.com/sideline ... mp;sID=9&cID=33
从一些上市公司,如吉隆甲洞、联合马六甲,具有超过一百年的历史可以印证,种植业是最经得起时间考验的企业,因为种植公司所拥有的最重要资产——土地,价 值有升无降,是保值的最佳资产。

尽管原产品价格波动激烈,但棕油以其低廉的生产成本及多种用途,具有最强的竞争能力。

四十年来,棕油在食油市场所占的份额,由5%到目前的超过40%,证明其优越性。在世界人口日增,各国日益富庶(食油消耗量与国民生产总值同步增长)及用 途日广的趋势下,棕油前景亮丽。

买种植股实在是最稳健的投资,只可惜大部分散户都不熟悉油棕业,没有评估种植股的能力,错过了低廉买进种植股的良机。

现在我以嘉隆发展(TDM Berhad)为例,跟大家分享种植股的评估心得,大家可以通过同样的方式,评估其他种植股的价值。

必须特别指出,这是我从商业投资的角度研发出来的评估法,以此四部曲评估,种植股只可以对其价值,得出一个初步的轮廓,如果要知道种植公司的准确价值,恐 怕就要雇用估值师,加以详尽评估,才能得知。

在着手评估之前,我们应对有关公司有基本的认识。让我们就以嘉隆发展作个示范吧:

历史:嘉隆发展已有45年的历史。

园丘地点:在登嘉楼州。

主要股东:该公司为登嘉楼州政府的投资臂膀,州政府和州发展机构分别拥有此公司53%和14.9%股权。

园丘面积:

(A)该公司拥有的油棕园:2万6162公顷(6万4649英亩)。

(B)该公司代为管理的油棕园:3万2897公顷(8万1292英亩)。

(C)其他土地:6734公顷(1万6640英亩)。

业务:

⑴ 油棕园。

⑵医疗服务:拥有3间小型医院。

⑶食品业:养鸡。

油棕园是主要的盈利来源,其次是医疗服务业。

资本:实收资本:2亿2135万令吉,分为每股面值的股票2亿2135万股。

资料来源:2009年年报及到今年9月30日的本财务年第三季季报。

评估四部曲:一、每英亩买价

购买嘉隆发展的股票就是购买该公司的股份。购买股份之前,我们必须了解,我们以目前每股2.70令吉的市价买进该公司的股票,是等于以多少钱买进1英亩的 油棕园。

该公司资本为2亿2135万令吉,以2.70令吉的股价计算,市价总值约为6亿令吉。

假如你以6亿令吉买完该公司的所有股票的话,该公司的6万4649英亩油棕园就是属于你的。

该公司在今年9月30日时,拥有约1亿2000万令吉的现金(已扣除负债),假如你以6亿令吉收购该公司的全部股票,这1亿2000万令吉现金就是你的。

从6亿令吉中减去1亿2000万令吉现金,所得出的4亿8000万令吉,就是购买该公司6万4649英亩油棕园的价格,故每英亩买价为7424令吉。

所以,你以每股2令吉70仙的价格购买嘉隆发展的股票,就等于以每亩7424令吉购买该公司的油棕园。

拥有医院和养鸡场

该公司还拥有医院和养鸡场,我们没有将这些资产计算在内,是因为这些资产数目不大,同时我们也无法知道他们的现有价值。

该公司也替登嘉楼州政府管理3万2897公顷(8万1292英亩)油棕园,我无法找出管理的条件及该公司从这方面取得多少利益,所以也无法计算其价值。

每英亩7424令吉,只是个粗浅,而不是精确的估值。

二、每股净有形资产价值

该公司在今年9月30日时,每股净有形资产价值为3.03令吉。

这是该公司园丘的账面价值,并非市值。

该公司的年报第129至130页,有列出该公司的园丘在账目中的价值。

根据此表的园丘面积和账面价值计算,该公司的园丘在账目中的每英亩价值约为1771令吉。

除非加以全面估值,我们无法得知这些园丘目前每英亩的市价是多少,尤其是该公司的园丘,大部分是属租期地区,多数只剩下60年左右。

但是,可以肯定的是每英亩的价值目前必然不止1771令吉。所以,假如该公司重估其园丘的价值的话,每股净有形资产价值肯定超过3.03令吉。

三、赚钱知多少?

公司的业绩纪录是公司赚钱能力的最有力证据。

每股净利是评估赚钱能力的最重要资料。

嘉隆发展五年来的每股净利及派息率见下列图表。

从纪录可以看出该公司在2007年以前,业绩平平,难怪股价长期不振。

2007年以后盈利突飞猛进,原因如下:

⑴产量增加。

2006年每公顷鲜果(FFB)产量仅为15公吨,以后逐年增加,现为约20公吨,符合全国每公顷平均产量。

⑵原棕油价格上升。

2006年时每公吨原棕油仅售1500令吉,2007年涨至2152令吉,2008年为2844令吉,2009年为2237令吉,产量与油价同步上升,盈 利大增。

⑶该公司的油棕园大部分在盛产期,5年内无需翻种。

支出减少,盈利相应上升。

5年后每年需翻种5%。

⑷医疗服务组盈利大增。

今年首三季每股净利已达27.48仙。第三季净利为12.82仙,如果第四季能保持第三季的盈利额的话,2010年的全年每股净利将超过40仙。以 2.70令吉股价计算,本益比仅6.75倍,只等于大型种植公司20倍本益比的三分之一。

四、成长何处寻?

该公司的成长:

⑴ 该公司已在印尼加里曼丹收购4万公顷(9万8844英亩)农业地,其中2万5000公顷(6万1777英亩)已开始种植,今年将种3000公顷(7413 英亩)。预料该公司的种植面积将在未来数年中直线上升。

该公司手头有1亿2000万令吉现金,加上每年丰厚的盈利,有足够的财力发展此新油棕园,无需借贷。

⑵ 继续发展医疗服务组,目前拥有三间中小型医院,将在关丹兴建一间拥有150张病床的新医院。

总结:

⑴以2.70令吉买嘉隆发展,等于以每英亩7424令吉买油棕园。

目前油棕园的售价为2万-3万令吉,视面积、地点及素质而定。

⑵该公司油棕园每英亩的账面价值仅1771令吉,如果重估,每股净有形资产价值必然超过3.03令吉。

⑶以目前每公吨3700令吉的原棕油价格,该公司今年每股净利应可超过40仙,预期本益比仅6.75倍。

⑷印尼的新油棕园和致力发展医疗服务业,将成为该公司的成长区。

⑸该公司董事部宣布每年,最少拨出净利的30%作为股息分发给股东,以该公司的稳固财务基础,预测该公司今后将慷慨派发股息。

冷眼分享集: 怎样投资种植股?

2010/12/18 1:11:57 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师


原棕油的每公吨售价,最近突破3600令吉,而且高居不下,业者预测,此高价将持续至明年。

这是原棕油在三年内第二次暴涨。

2008年时,原棕油的每公吨售价在1500令吉上下徘徊,过后节节挺升;到2008年3月3日达到4486令吉的历史性高峰,过后节节败退;2009年 时曾一度跌至1500令吉左右,几乎回到了2006年的价格水平,但过后又稳步回升,现在又爬升至3600令吉的水平。

三大因素决定盈利

油棕公司的盈利,今年肯定标青。

油棕业界预测,原棕油目前的价格,将持续至明年,油棕业前景将是亮丽的。

跟其他领域的上市公司相比,种植股的盈利是较容易预测的。

种植公司的盈利,决定于三个因素:

1.决定于原产品的价格,尤其是原棕油的价格。

现有上市种植公司的盈利,超过90%是来自油棕,除了吉隆甲洞、森那美和贸易风种植,还拥有相当大面积的树胶园之外,其他上市公司几乎已是纯粹的油棕公 司。

故棕油价格对大部分种植上市公司,有立竿见影的影响。

2.原棕油的生产成本。

假如你有细读上市种植公司的年报的话,你会发现各公司之间,每公吨原棕油的生产成本,差距颇大,由生产成本最低的约600令吉(联合种植)到超过1200 令吉。

这个差距,是由园丘地点、品种、地质、管理素质等等因素造成的。

由于所有上市公司的原棕油售价,都决定于棕油行情,大家的售价不会相差太大,故生产成本就对有关公司的盈利有巨大的影响。

3.园丘的产量也是影响种植公司的重要因素。

每公顷(2.4711英亩)成熟油棕园,全国的平均产量约为20公吨鲜棕果(FFB),这是衡量油棕园素质的最常用标准。如果每公顷低于20公吨,就表示 产量欠理想;若高于20公吨,则可被接受。

也有极少数油棕园每公顷产量达到30公吨的,但此类油棕园所占的巴仙率,恐怕不到1%。

当你阅读种植公司的年报的时候,如果发现你拥有股票的上市公司,每公顷产量超过20公吨,你就可以放心投资下去。

产量树龄息息相关

但必须注意,油棕园的鲜果产量与树龄息息相关。

油棕种下后第三年开始结果,但产量有限,油棕园还是无利可图,要到第五年才能达到收支平衡。故由买地到种下后的第五年,油棕园都是亏本的。亏本来自维持开 支,包括除草、下肥、劳工等开支。

油棕种下后第三年就被列为“成熟”树,实际上还是没钱赚,要到第五年才略有盈利,这还要看原棕油的价格而定。

由第五年到第廿五年,盈利不断,但盛产期是由第七年至第十七年之间的十年,产量最高,如果原棕油价格挺秀的话,园主必然捞得盆满钵满,故园主对7-17最 有好感。

由第十八年起,产量已开始走下坡;到第廿三年时已是树老叶黄,产量不多,到了要翻种的树龄。

但是,如果原棕油价格奇高,像目前这样的话,园主也会拖延翻种,尽量利用其剩余价值,到第廿五年才翻种。

所以,也不要一看到每公顷产量不到20公吨就马上妄下判断,认为有关公司的油棕园素质欠佳。

因为从第三年成熟到第七年进入盛产期,这期间的产量通常无法达到全国的产量标准20公吨,如果初成熟的面积相当大的话,则可能拉低总产量,无法达到全国的 平均数,这种情形,将跟着“初成熟”的园丘逐步走向盛产期,总产量将逐步提高至超过全国平均产量。

平均产量须胜全国

举一个例子,假如你阅读嘉利丹的2009年年报的话,你会发现该公司的36,000英亩油棕园,每公顷的平均产量仅19.28公吨,比全国的平均产量略 低。

但是,细读统计数字,你会发现该公司的园丘分为两个部分,一部分约1万5000多英亩,位于山打根区,油棕都在盛产期,每公顷产量去年为22.25公吨, 前年为23.96公吨,均高于全国平均产量。

但在斗湖的1万英亩,平均每公顷产量仅为15.75公吨。

优秀等级

虽然比前年的12.40公吨为高,但仍未达到全国20公吨的平均产量,原来斗湖区的这1万英亩,大部分未进入盛产期,产量仍在逐年增加中,一旦这1万英亩 进入盛产期,嘉利丹的总产量平均每公顷必定超过全国平均产量,因为该公司的油棕园,属优秀等级。

上班族分享回酬

一般上班族都有一种错误的想法,认为油棕园是大资本家的“禁脔”,只有财力雄厚的种植家才有资格投资油棕种植业,身为受薪阶级之一员,他们不可能染指此行 业。

就因为这个错误的想法,使许多上班族失去了参与油棕业的机会。实际上,上班族不必放弃他们的职业,却可以参与投资油棕园,分享油棕业的丰厚回酬。

购买上市种植公司的股票,就是购买上市种植公司的股份。

购买上市种植公司的股份,就是跟数以千计的其他投资者,合股种植油棕,成为名副其实的油棕园主。

大家都知道丹斯里李深静是我国杰出的华人种植家。

实际上,他并没有直接拥有油棕园,他所拥有的,是IOI的股票,他在IOI拥有控制性股权;IOI拥有超过40万英亩油棕园,就是他控制40多万亩油棕 园,从而成为种植业巨子。

你也可以像他这样,购买IOI的股票,而拥有IOI部份的园丘,分享IOI的盈利。谁说你这名上班族没有机会参与油棕业?

最佳保值资产

买种植公司的股份(股票只不过是股份的证明书而已),就是买油棕园,买油棕园就是买土地。土地价值,长期来说,有升无降,是最佳的保值资产。

所以,种植股是最稳健的投资,种植公司的盈利,可能会跟着原棕油价格而波动,但种植公司的资产价值,却有增无减。

油棕园的面积,通常是以公顷(hestare)计算,每公顷等于2.4711英亩(acre),每英亩可以栽种53至55棵油棕树。

油棕园的土地,不能种满油棕树,必须保留约10至15%作为道路、沟渠、建榨油厂、劳工宿舍等用途,种植面积(planted area)只能占85至90%。

一个油棕园的面积,约要25,000英亩,才能支持一间中型榨油厂,符合经济规模。小园主没有能力设厂,就把棕果卖给榨油厂。在小园主多的地区,也有独立 榨油厂的设立,专收集小园主的棕果榨为原棕油出售。

油棕园的价格,视地点而定,目前每英亩的价格,介于2万至3万令吉之间,交易稀少,故奇货可居,常有行无市。

如果你勤于做功课,深读年报及研究论文的话,你会发现,即使在目前的股价,仍可以找到价格合理的种植股。

大型上市种植公司,交投活跃,是投资机构的宠儿。

目前的股价,已充分反映其价值,反而是部分中、小型种植公司,价值仍被低估。有意投资种植股的股友,不防注意捷博、远东控股、格林尼、嘉利丹、嘉隆发展及 贸易风种植。

冷眼分享集:盯紧盈利莫放松

2010/12/10 6:20:35 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

股票投资,其实有许多准则可以遵循的。问题是,准则太多了,要付诸于行动,难之又难。

就以选股来说,每个人都知道本益比、周息率、每股资产价值等准则,但真正将这些准则应用在投资上的,恐怕不多。

准则越简单越好

不要说对股票投资略识之无的股友,即使像我这样在股市中征战数十年的沙场老将,在应用这些准则时,也未必能做到得心应手,故股票投资之道,知之匪艰,行之 维艰呵!

研究股票数十年,在股市中实践数十载,到了古稀之年,我有一种越来越强烈的感觉:选择股票,准则越简单越好,组合管理,则动作动少越妙。

投资者所犯的最大错误,是他相信自己可以应用各种既艰深,又复杂的方法去战胜股市,从而赚取暴利。

实际上,这一类投资者,成功致富的少之又少,真正成功的反而是那些根据很简单的准则进行投资,而动作又很少的投资者。

抓最重要最实用

我们与其去采用一大堆华而不实,知而不能行的准则,倒不如去芜存菁,抓住最重要,最实用,而又最易实行的一点,身体力行,更能产生实效,达到创造财富的目 的。

如果你阅读别人的股票分析,听取别人的主张的话,你反而会无所适从。

所以,与其去到处询问别人的意见,倒不如依循一两个简单的准则,脚踏实地的走自己的道路。

当你听到一只股票是否值得投资,众说纷纭,莫衷一是的时候,你只要回答一个最简单的问题,就马上可以作出决定:“这家公司赚钱吗?”

如果答案是“不”的话,就不必再去考虑买进,因为主张买进的人,是根据似是而非的“意见”,并不是根据事实作出推荐。

股票价值建在盈利基础

你的投资概念,必须是建立在一个基础上,那就是股票的价格趋势。

长期来说,必然是跟股票的价值成正比。而股票的价值,主要是建立在盈利的基础上。

简言之,只有盈利,才能创造价值,只有价值,才能确保股价的长期上升趋势。

一家公司的股票,如果没有盈利的支撑的话,其股价不可能长期向上。

一家盈利长期向上的公司,短期其股价容或随股市大势而有起落,但长期的趋势必然是向上的。

星狮、玻璃市种植、吉隆甲洞、联合种植、大众银行、健力士等公司的股价,短期是有起落,但长期来说是向上的,因而为投资者创造了财富。

投资者把资金投入一家企业,需冒丧失资本的风险,还要花精神,竭心智去经营,盈利是他应得的酬劳。

正如雇员把时间、精力卖给雇主,他应该得到薪金一样,是天公地道的事。

盈利是投资保障

有了盈利,员工职业才有保障。

有了盈利,才有股息。

有了盈利,公司资产才会增加。

有了盈利,公司才有能力增加投资,扩展生意。

盈利,是企业的生命。

盈利,是你的投资的最佳保障。

低买长期收稳赚

既然如此,投资者要作出投资决定,易如反掌,那就是只买有盈利公司的股票,没有盈利公司,无论“消息”多么好,一概不买。

盈利长期稳健上升的公司,是最好的公司,低价买进长期收藏,稳赚。

所谓“有盈利”的公司,是以全年,而不是以一季为标准。

一家公司的业务,受到意想不到因素的冲击,在一两季中蒙受亏损,是很平常的事,只要不伤及元气,逆境过后就重振旗鼓,重获盈利,就应归入“有盈利”的公 司。

在经济大风暴中,企业蒙受亏蚀,情有可原,只要长期盈利纪录标青,将来赚钱的能力完整无损,就仍有资格列入“有盈利”公司。

实际上,好公司短期受挫,导致股价暴跌,正是买进的良机,这正是反向思维者用武之好时机。

举例说明:亿维雅

亿维雅(Hevea Board)的主要业务是在森美兰的马口设厂制造碎木板(Chipboard)和傢具,由2005至2008盈利日走下坡,但金融海啸后盈利猛力回弹,去 年每股净利23仙,以目前64仙的股价计算,本益比仅2.77倍,为上市公司中最低者之一。

该公司在今年9月底时负债1亿6700万令吉,等于股东基金的91%,属债高公司之一,在金融风暴中,该公司曾被银行追债而几乎陷困,后来借助法庭庭令才 渡过难关。

为了减轻债务,该公司已在今年5月委任顾问,研究将具有良好盈利纪录的子公司亿维雅太平洋(Heveapac)上市,以套取资金减低母公司的负债,该公司 也发凭单给股东,凭单长达10年,由今年3月算起。

盯紧第四季盈利

该公司本财务年每季都有可观盈利,首三季每股已取得19.55仙的净利,如果第四季能保持第三季的纪录的话,全年盈利可达25仙,以目前63仙的股价计 算,本益比才2.5倍。

假如你购买这只股票的话,我建议你应盯紧该公司第四季的盈利。

如果未来几个季度能保持本财务年首三季的盈利额的话,就说明了该公司已走出了金融海啸的阴影,债务问题亦可迎刃而解。

冷眼分享集: 富向冷中求●冷眼

2010/12/03 5:49:25 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

冷门股是指交投不活跃及每天成交量低的股票。

跟交投活跃及每天成交量高的股票,刚好相反。

在这一轮的牛市中,根据证券业人士的估测,到目前为止,活跃参与股票交易的,基本上还是来自投资机构,如公积金局、单位信托、资产管理公司等,股市中人通 常称他们为大户。

至于散户,至今仍按兵不动,这种现象一点也不奇怪。

在所有牛市的初期,甚至中期,在熊市中搞到遍体鳞伤的散户,都心有余悸,他们惊魂未定,担心股市的外势只是虚有其表,恐怕进场后再度中计,因此多数采取观 望的态度。

反向策略熊市进场

但是,江山易改,“赌”性难移。这些在鳄鱼潭边徘徊的股友,到股市疯狂时,在贪念的催促下,最终“忍无可忍”,还是跳进鳄鱼潭中,成为鳄鱼的点心,历届牛 市历史都是这样重演着。

我一再提醒散户,采取反向策略,在熊市中进场,低价买进优质股,就不动如山,心如英语所说的:“坐着走过牛市”,以逃过股市大鳄的利爪,全身以退。

最好策略以静待动

四十年的股市实战经验告诉我,经验不足,财力薄弱的散户,绝对不是大户的对手,要想打败股市是不可能的,散户的最好策略就是以静待动;以不变应万变,不与 狼共舞,紧握你的股票,最后一走了之,股市和大鳄都奈何不了你。

股市有如过山车,你在过山车的座位上,套上安全带,任由过山车向前窜高逐低,你就是抓紧栏杆不动,你就会安然无恙的到达终站,如果你自作聪明,企图搞花样 的话,你准会被摔出车座送命。

大户在股市中,操作活跃,可以赚钱。因为他们具备散户所无法做到的优越条件。

散户如果跟着他们,闻风起舞的话,最终必定遭殃。

因为散户无论在市场情报、经验、资讯和人才素质方面,都不可能跟他们相比。

股市这个充满陷阱的地方,即使专职专业投资者也难免马失前蹄,何况是玩票性质的无知散户呢?

基金不能购冷门股

大户由于资金庞大,交易数量动辄以千万股计,他们通常只对交易量大及交投活跃的优质股感兴趣,对于交投不活跃,难以买到大宗股票的公司,完全不感兴趣,这 也难怪,因为他们所管理的基金,投资者随时都可以退出。

当投资者把投资单位卖回给他们的时候,他们必须在短时间内付款给投资者,如果他们所拥有的股票是交投淡静的冷门股的话,他们无法将股票套现,无法应付投资 者的“挤提”的话,他们的基金就有可能面对倒闭的危机,所以,基金不能购买冷门股。

冷门股价值严重被低估

基金对冷门股不感兴趣,往往导致冷门股价值严重被低估,跟热门股形成强烈的对照,热门股受到股票行分析师的青睐,不断的发表研究报告,即使是公司小小的变 动,他们也会马上加以分析,作出评估。

所以,热门股,尤其是大资本的优质热门股,它们的价值,尽人皆知,根本不会有隐藏价值的存在。

冷门股就不同了,由于没有人加以分析推荐,交投又不活跃,长期被股市中人冷落,它们被忽略,价值往往被严重低估。

这种股票,只有深读年报,勤于挖掘的投资者,才会发现它们的价值,从而买进,作为长期投资,取得丰厚的回酬。

不买冷门垃圾股

避免投资机构热衷的热门股,把注意力转移至较不热门,长期被忽略的股票,深入挖掘,找出它们的价值,然后好整以暇地买进,作为长期投资,这类股票跌幅有 限,上升空间很大,风险也就相应的较低。

但是,投资于冷门股,要特别注意,千万不要买冷门的垃圾股,因为一旦股市大跌,你无法脱售,而所拿着的股票的公司,又长期亏蚀,股票最终可能变成废纸。所 以,千万不要买冷门劣股。

冷门股由于交投淡薄,甚至长期没有交易,在这种情形之下,跟非上市公司没有什么分别。所以,在买进的时候,就应抱着投资于非上市公司的态度,准备长期锁在 保险箱中。

这种投资法,只有买进盈利长期上升,资产自动增值及负债低的公司,才有可能取得丰厚的回酬,你以低价(以每英亩的买进价格为标准)买进油棕成长股,长期持 有,几乎是稳赚的。

有行无市怪现象

买这类股票,享受不到买热门股的刺激,但回酬往往是更可靠及更丰厚。

冷门股之所以会变成冷门,一方面是因为大部分股票操在大股东手中,不会轻易脱售,形成在股市中流通的股票越来越少。

另一个原因是买这些优质冷门股的散户,都是长期投资者,买进后就不卖,结果股市中的流离股进一步减低,形成了有行无市的怪现象。

还有一个原因,就是冷门股多数是资本小的公司,在股市中流通的股票原本就不多,若有人发现其价值,长期吸购的话,票数就更加少,成为冷门股中的冷门。

不可借钱购买

由于冷门股难买难卖,所以,千万不可借钱购买,否则的话,当股价暴跌时,你可能面对银行逼仓,银行不会理会股票的价值,他们的唯一目标是卖掉你的股票,收 回债款。所以被逼仓的冷门股,跌幅往往惊人的大。

即使在目前的牛市中,仍可找到价值被低估的冷门股,他们的共同特点是有良好的业绩纪录,资产雄厚,更重要的都是拥有大量现金的公司。

它们每股拥有的现金为:格林尼(RM1.00);哈礼申(RM0.84);菲马机构 (RM1.16);KESMI(RM0.76);RCI(RM0.53)。

格林尼的母公司为林威,该公司拥有大量未种植土地,每年增种新树整1万英亩;哈礼申是由印尼华侨控制,菲马集团(Kumpulan Fima)拥有菲马机构(Fima Corp.)约60%股权,KESMI是由新加坡人控制;RCI的母公司为美佳第一控股(MFCB)。

冷眼分享集:深读年报 寻宝藏

2010/11/26 6:35:52 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

股票投资者在收到他持有股份的公司的常年报告书之后,能翻开来细读的,少之又少。

大部分投资者,对年报都不屑一顾,更不要说深入阅读了。

而他投资于这家公司的资金,可能多达百万令吉,投入这么大笔的资金,却对有关公司的实况,一无所知,这种草率的态度,实在令人费解。

大部分股票投资者,都申诉股票资料难找,实际上刚好相反。

上市公司都必须遵守上市条例,按时公布公司的营业状况,这就是公司每三个月发布一次的季报和每年发布一次的年报,他们所必须公布的资料都是上市条例所规定 的,不得偷工减料,这些资料足供投资者评估股票的价值。

投资者只要细读,对公司股份的价值,即使不能深入了解,最低限度,也会有一个清楚的概念。

谣言出错高

可惜大部分投资者都不肯花时间、精神去做功课,反而到处打听消息,听信谣言,以此作为买进卖出的根据,根据不可靠的资料作出的决定,出错的机会当然较高, 难怪股市中人,总是亏多赚少。

了解公司进展

在股票研究中,年报是主要的资料来源,其重要性不言而喻。假如你要长期在股市中生存,养成阅读年报的习惯,是最起码的条件。

一家公司的年报,习惯上只报告过去一年的营业进展,过去的略而不提。所以,要了解一家公司,一定要阅读多年的年报,对公司的进展,才能了然于心。

我们知道,所有企业的营运,都是连续性的,如果只读一年的年报,对过去一无所知,你很难对公司的业务进程,有清楚的认识。

年报了解演变

这种情形,就好像我们只读断代史,无法了解一个国家的演变一样。所以,投资者除了读当年的年报之外,最好是同时阅读历年的年报。

马来西亚股票交易所由2002年起,通过www.bursamalaysia.com,给投资者免费提供的年报、季报和公司的文告,2002年以来的资 料全部完整的保存在该所的网站中,这些都是非常宝贵的资料,不好好的利用,实在可惜。

评价资产价值

年报中刊载了非常宝贵的资料,如果你深入阅读的话,你不难找到宝藏。

这些都是非常难得的“贴士”,善加应用,可能为你带来意想不到的财富。

大家都知道,评估股票价值的三个最常用标准为本益比、周息率和每股净有形资产价值。买进股票的其中一个考量是:有关股票的价值是不是被低估?而评定价值是 不是被低估的其中一个标准,就是每股净有形资产价值是不是比市价高。

考虑前途展望

当然,每股净有形资产价值只是评估标准之一,一只股票值不值得买进,除了净有形资产价值之外,还要考虑其他的因素,例如前途展望。

所有的年报,都会提供该公司股票的每股净有形资产价值(Net Tangible Asset Per Share,简称NTA)。账目中所提供的数字,到底可靠不可靠?是比市价低还是高?

随手举一个例子说明:如果你翻阅刚出炉的第一控股工业(FACB IND)年报的话,你就可以找到答案。

轻易算出产业价值

每一本年报都有一个“产业表”,列出该公司所拥有的房地产的地点、用途、面积、年龄、地契年期(永久性还是租用期地契)、账面价值和估值年份。

从这些资料,你可以轻易的算出有关产业的价值,从而看出该公司的产业价值是高过或低过市价。

【例一】第一控股工业

就以第一控股工业来说,该公司在两个工业区拥有厂地和厂房:

第一个是在麻坡的丹绒阿卡斯工业区拥有约5英亩厂地,为梦乡床垫(Dreamland)的制造厂所在地(第一控股工业的前身为梦乡),这组厂房厂地在账目 中的价值为312万6000令吉,或是每平方尺14令吉39仙,估值年度为1991年。目前在账目中的价值仍为19年前的价值。

19年来,这些厂地厂房的价值涨了多少倍?现在的市值是多少?我们无从估计,但有一点是肯定的,市值必然高过19年前的价值。

第二个地点是在雪兰莪莎阿南工业区的厂地和厂房,也就是该公司主要业务——白钢厂所在地,厂地20.144英亩,99年地契,到2098年届满,账面价值 为3724万5000令吉,估值年度为1992年。

到底这18年来,莎阿南的工业地涨了多少倍?我没有足够的资料可以佐证。但常识告诉我们:18年前买下的厂地,现在价值肯定已上涨了几倍。所以,3724 万5000令吉的账面价值,肯定是被低估。

所以,假如第一控股工业重估其地产的话,该公司的每股净有形资产价值,肯定比年报中的2令吉16仙为高。

【例二】金狮工业

金狮工业是另一个典型例子。该公司在巴生武吉拉查的60英亩钢铁厂厂地,在账目中的价值仅3160万令吉,那是1994年的估值,现在涨了多少倍?

该公司的地产多达30宗,分散在雪、甲、柔、槟等高成长区,估值年度由1991至2008年不等,市价肯定比账面价值高。

换句话说,金狮工业的每股净有形资产价值肯定高过年报中的4令吉25仙。

【例三】金兴工业

金兴工业(Kim Hin)是一家瓷砖制造厂。在古晋、芙蓉、上海、澳洲设有工厂及仓库。这些产业的估值年度为古晋:1992(31英亩);芙蓉:1989(15.15英 亩);上海:1992(53英亩);澳洲悉尼:1995(4.87英亩);雪兰莪加埔:2005(5.98英亩)。

目前的价值,肯定比账面价值高几倍。如果重新估值,每股净有形资产价值肯定比3令吉08仙的账面价值高,难怪该公司大股东持续不断的从股市吸购该公司的股 票。

该公司的每股现金及准现金(债券、单位信托等),几乎等于其股票市价。

【例四】东方实业

东方实业(Oriental Holdings)在年报中,以18页的编幅,列出该公司所拥有的房地产。

这些遍布大马各州及印尼的产业,用途包括园丘、工业地、酒店、商业地等,估值年度由1968年到2009年,但绝大部分是80及90年代的估值,除非全面 重新估值,否则该公司董事恐怕也无法准确知道其价值。

但有一点是可以肯定的,这些房地产的市值,肯定比账面价值不知高多少倍。

换句话说,东方实业的每股净有形资产价值,肯定比在6月30日时的7令吉43仙为高。更值得注意的是,该公司在6月底时的净现金高达近20亿令吉,成为大 马现金最充沛的上市公司之一。

我随手举几个例子,旨在说明一点:股价虽然已屡创高峰,实际上,许多上市公司的每股净有形资产价值仍比市价低一截。像这类公司,其实还很多,只要你深入阅 读年报,你不难有所发现。

我要特别指出:每股净有形资产价值,只是评估股票价值是否被低估的标准之一而已。一只股票是否值得买进,还要配合其他的因素如本益比、周息率、现金流、前 途展望等,才能决定,不能单看每股净资产价值。

但是,假如其他因素相同的话,每股净有形资产价值雄厚的公司,其股票更值得投资。

年报蕴藏着许多宝藏,等待你去发掘。有恒地深读年报,必有所发现。

冷眼分享集: 李小龙的双节棍

2010/11/19 5:43:40 PM
●冷眼 股市基本面大师

环绕着股票投资这个课题,写了四十年的文章,写来写去,都脱离不了基本面。

忠实的读者,对我写的东西都有“熟头熟脸”的感觉。这也难怪,因为基本面的道理,无非是那一套,根本不可能有新奇怪异的论调。看得多了,有老生常谈之感, 也是再自然不过的事。

请不要以为你说我“老生常谈”,我会感到不高兴,恰好相反,我反而感到荣幸,有被恭维的感觉,因为这表示我的主张,数十年不变。

条条大路通罗马

四十年前悟出来的投资道理,四十年后的今天,保持不变。一种主张,经得起四十年的考验,说明了它的扎实基础,我对基本面深信不疑,是因为它以绩效证明它的 价值。

条条大路通罗马。股票投资赚钱法,五花八门,各路人马在股市中各显神通;尽管法宝各异,但结果却大致相同,都赚到了钱。

假如你研究世界成功投资家的窍门的话,你会发现没有两个人所用的方法是相同的,但他们都同样成功。

通过股票投资,为他们自己或是他们所主持的基金,创造了财富,其中最著名的,当然首推巴菲特,他单靠投资股票,成为世界第二富有的人,仅次于微软的盖茨。

研究巴菲特的书,汗牛充栋,然而,世界并未出现第二个巴菲特。可见巴菲特所用的方法,只适用于他本人,别人模仿不得。尽管他的主张具有极大的普遍性,但别 人应用起来,却不灵光。

就好像同是剑,在剑客手中,可以出神入化,但在普通武夫手中,却发挥不了威力。

模仿别人不明智

日前重新欣赏李小龙电影,发现一条双节棍在他手中舞劲,成为最犀利的武器;假如在门外汉手中舞动的话,不但不能克敌致胜,反而会敲破自己头。

可见模仿别人,并非明智之举。要在股市投资成功,惟一的可靠途径,是走自己的道路——一条独特的,适合你自己的路,然后坚定不移的走下去。造次必于是,颠 沛必于是,这样,才有可能在股市中扬眉吐气。

每个人的性格、财务情况、人生观、环境、负担,都不一样,因此所形成的投资哲理,也必然完全不同。

例如性格稳健的人,最适合他的,应该是稳扎稳打的投资者,他只要发挥他的特长,在股市中买进基础扎实,盈利平稳的股票,比如种植股,长期持有,成功的可能 性就大大的提高。

如果他不了解自己的性格,采取投机的投资概念,在股市中抢进杀出,企图快速致富的话,最后必然焦头烂额。

坚忍不拔精神

股票投资,不是单靠知识就可以成功的,要成功必须具备其他成功条件。

其中之一就是坚忍不拔的精神,股票投资,胜败是兵家常事,那些经不起失败考验,股市大跌时变得垂头丧气,甚至神经兮兮的人,不大可能在股市投资成功。

股市中另一种常见的,是“鸵鸟型”投资者,股市沸腾时他意气风发,股市崩溃时,他连看股市的勇气也没有。

成功的投资者,是无论股市兴衰,他都紧盯其股票,沉着应战,在险象环生的环境中杀出一条血路。

没有免费午餐

还有一种常见的失败者,是永远不会从失败中吸取经验的人,他一再重复错误,明知是错误的做法,却没有改弦易辙的决心,就这样一直错下去,奇怪的是他也不会 离开股市,这种“长亏”型投资者,俯拾即是。

股市中没有免费的午餐,一分耕耘,才会有一分收获。许多人有一种错误的想法,以为股市是最容易赚钱的地方,实际上刚好相反,股市赚钱难,难赚钱。

惟有观念正确,肯下苦功做功课,有坚忍不拔的精神及极大的耐心的人,才有可能在股市赚钱。

孟子曰“梓匠轮舆能与人规矩,不能使人巧”《尽心篇》(白话:制作车轮、车箱的木匠,能把方法传授给他人,却不能使他人技艺巧妙)。

同样的,股票投资的基本法则并不难懂,但如何应用这些法则在股市投资成功,却还要靠投资者自己去领悟与摸索,没有人可以帮助你,这就是世界至今还没有出现 第二个巴菲特的原因。

投资是个人化

股票投资是非常个人化的事,别人帮不了忙。所以投资大师邓普顿说:“最好的投资决定来自个人,并非来自一个委员会。”别人的意见,只能作为参考,却不可全 盘照收,因为别人并没有为你赚钱的义务,你享受你的投资成果,所以你必须承担你的投资责任,要别人承担你的投资失败是不公平的。

根据自己的情况,建立自己投资理念,找出适合自己道路,择善而固执,坚决不移的走下去,只要长期能为你赚钱,就是走对了路,切勿轻易改变跑道。

记住,适合别人的,未必适合你。所以不要羡慕别人,只管沿着你的道路走下去,一定能走出一个春天来。

Evergreen Fibreboard: Headwinds and more headwinds

ORIGINAL LINK
http://goodstockbadstock.blogspot.com/2010/12/evergreen-fibreboard-headwinds-and-more.html

This review should be written weeks ago, but, I keep on delaying until Q4 is going to end soon and I am reviewing Q3 figures. LOL. Since Q3 is quite a while ago, I would not touch too much on the numbers but rather focus more on the more medium term headwinds faced by the company as well as some of the recent developments.

The Q3 profits was rather bad, it is down around 45% from preceding quarters. I don't think there is a huge seasonal effects in their earnings, so comparison with preceding quarter may give us a better picture compared to a y-o-y comparison. Management gives a few reasons such as plant maintenance, increase transport cost due to ramadan, higher log costs, plant shut down for maintenance and etc. Most of these are non-recurring apart from the log costs which is inching higher.

Management also guided on higher glue cost going forward. As mentioned previously, I would not touch too much on other operating figures because it is rather long time ago and I feel that the analyst report has done a rather good job covering it. So, it would be more value adding to talk about some medium term challenges that are not that well covered by either the analysts or the media.

Overcapacity in ASEAN?

Alex Lu of the very popular nexttrade blog has touched a bit on the issue in one of his blog post here. So, are there any aggressive capacity expansion by ASEAN producers? Yes. What is the numbers we are talking about? As of today, based on the information that I have, we are looking at around 1.0585 million m3 of new capacity coming on stream on 2012 ( It takes around 1 year to set up the plant).

So, we may only get some clearer picture on margin compression on early 2012. There are only three players that are expanding but the size of their expansion is rather huge. One of them is Evergreen's former JV partner-Panel Plus with a 1000m3/day in Thailand. Panel Plus is a subsidiary of Mitr Pohl group which is one of the largest sugar producer in ASEAN. As they are under a conglomerate, Panel Plus may be a strong competitor to Evergreen as it has access to internal capital markets.

So, it will still be financially strong during the down-cycle as it can receive funding from other non-MDF division within the group. Another Thai player that is expanding is PB Rayong with a 700m3/day new plant while the most ambitious of the expansion is by VRG/Dongwha of Vietnam with a capacity of 1200m3/day. The VRG plant is the largest ever MDF plant in SEA. So, all in all, we have 1.0585 million3. These is rather huge increase as the total industry capacity in SEA currently is around 3 million, so, we are seeing about 33% new capacity coming on stream on 2012.

Some of these expansion I think is actually for CAPEX plans that being hold back during the crisis as I do not see much activity in this front during 2008 and 2009 except a small expansion from some Indonesian players. One of the more worrying trend I am seeing is the pace of the expansion worldwide, especially in China. Siempelkamp, one of the major equipment manufacturer for the MDF and PB industry is running at full capacity.Dieffenbacher, which I think is the market leader, is doing very well too by clocking in a lot of orders. In China alone, there will be at least 18 plants coming on stream in 2012 but the size of the plants is smaller than those we are seeing in SEA. The Chinese productions are mainly used to supply internal demands rather than for export, but, what I fear is that, these sort of aggressive expansion may result in Chinese productions starting to flood the export market. However, I think Chinese MDF are made using other sort of wood i.e. non-rubber log, that are perhaps more expensive. If I remember correctly (fact checking needed), they import logs from Russia. Russia, again if I remember correctly cause I sometimes mixed up between various industries, has begun to imposed taxes on its logs export a year or two ago. So, the Chinese players may have some cost disadvantaged here.

Another potential concern is that, I am observing (note: my observation may not be correct since I am not in the industry), some particleboard(PB) players are starting to add MDF into their offerings. Previously, most of the players are actually more PB-focused or are PB-only players (Evergreen is the only odd one out that focuses mostly on MDF), but, we are seeing signs of players actually shifting some of their production focus into MDF like the case of PB Rayong which I believe use to be a pure PB player rather than a MDF+PB player. So, we need to pay attention to such a shift as companies will focus more and pay more attention to their MDF division now if its contribute to a larger chunk of their revenue. This will cause potential increase in competition ahead.

On the Europe front, one of its competitor, Pfleiderer, is facing bankruptcy threat. Thus, it is closing down two of its plant but only one of those are MDF-based. Pfleiderer is actually a PB-focused player with little MDF capacity, that's why I am a bit puzzled when analyst like to use it as a peer. But, probably because there are a lack of listed engineered-wood producer to choose from. One of the reason for the Pfleiderer plant closure is that there is an overcapacity problem in Europe. So, we are seeing some overcapacity there also. On a side note, Pfleiderer closure may benefit Evergreen if they can capitalize on it to buy some parts from Pfleiderer. Evergreen management is quite savvy in buying good second hand parts to cut costs and it has bought from Pfleiderer before. But, that's a big IF and impact should not be significant.

Exchange Rate


Another potential challenges plaguing Evergreen is the exchange rate appreciation. Actually, I don't see appreciation per-se as much of a problem because everyone is facing it. Here's a chart on the year to date MYR and THB appreciation vs. USD.

(Source:Yahoo Finance)
As you can see, both countries actually appreciate at more or less the same rate. As for Euro, it depreciate by 10% vs. USD. So, MYR and THB loses around 20% advantage versus Euro. But, European producers have high cost to content with.

So, currency appreciation is not my foremost worries, it will be pass on eventually to the customer. What I am more worried is the volatility in the exchange rate. Take a look at the chart, exchange rate can move up or down by 1-2% within a week or so, which I think is a big movement. You may think 1-2% is a small issue, but, for a manufacturer with 10+ % margin, a 1-2% move may meant a 10+% decline in profits.

Let's me illustrate the situation more clearly. Imagine Evergreen hedged their USD exposure today for their sales in the next period. Then, within one week, some crazy stuff happen in Korea and everyone got scared and money flow back to US and USD appreciates by 1-2% versus MYR and THB. Then, Evergreen competitor, Panel Plus got lucky and hedged its currency exposure after the USD appreciation. Now, Panel Plus has some cost advantage that Evergreen has to match. Evergreen need to find a 1-2% efficiency gain just because Panel Plus got lucky. The volatility makes the life of the exporters much harder now. On a broader and unrelated note, it also makes comparison between exporters for example glove makers and palm oil companies much harder as you do not know which companies got lucky by hedging at the right time. So, a firm that are more profitable now may actually not be the case. But, obviously, you can take out the appreciation gain or stuff if it is reported in the detailed P&L but you need to make changes to the balance sheet too. Just makes life much harder.

Thus, appreciation is not a problem, the problem is the volatility. Life as an exporter is just getting harder and harder.

Rubber Wood Log Supply

I think on the long run, rubber log supply may be a major concern if it really run out of rubber plantation. Despite research being conducted on palm oil wood as a replacement, it is not feasible due to the low fibre content of palm oil trees. A combination is possible but not 100% palm oil wood. Evergreen previously told some RHB analysts that Malaysia has sufficient supply of rubber logs to meet 20 years of Evergreen's demand assuming no replanting. But, we need to bear in mind that Evergreen is not the only producer in Malaysia and not all of these will be sold to Evergreen. Some logs may just be left to rot.So, the sustainability of the rubber wood supply is certainly a concern but I believe the management is addressing it by looking into wood plantation. It is a long pay-back period venture that I think they will only do it if situation really become that bad. The problem I can see is that, if ,going forward, commodities prices go higher, plantation land will be more expensive too. So, the pay-back period may be getting longer and longer if the management delay getting into the project. But, this management really know their stuff, I trust them to make the correct decision.

Dawa Timber Takeover

It is a related-party transaction, so, there is always a concern for this type of deals. One of the research house actually said this takeover is overpriced. The reason. Evergreen FORWARD PE is around 6 times and the deal is done at 7-8 times HISTORICAL PE. I don't think it is logical to compare a forward multiple with a historical multiple, it is just not apple to apple comparison. Actually, if you compare Evergreen historical PE with that of the deal, the deal seems to look cheap. Another concern raise by the analyst is that it is higher that the industry multiple that is being given in Evergreen announcement. But, I have look at what is the peers are, most are lousy companies in Malaysia with some high gearing, so, it is understandable that it is 1x PE more than the industry. I am not being bias here, just stating the fact that I did not see anything fishy here. It is good that they bring the company back to Evergreen fold so that there are less issues with conflict of interest.

I will end the review here. There are actually more stuff to talk about but some are rather sensitive. I suspect one of the Evergreen competitor are actually stalking my post on Evergreen. So, I will not talk about some rather non-public and sensitive issue (it is in public domain but you need to know where to find) that may harm Evergreen competitive position. These issues may offer potential upside or downside. Google correctly and you will find it.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

雄才大略:上理财课 刻不容缓 ● 李志雄

http://www.nanyang.com/sidelines/sidelines_articleDetail.asp?type=D&ID=210022&sID=9&cID=33

2010/12/21 6:10:08 PM

●李志雄

问您一个简单的问题。每个月出粮(领了薪水)后,您会先把这份收入的一部分储蓄起来,还是先 供还了汽车、房屋贷款及扣除其他生活开销后,有剩余的钱才存起来?

再问您另一个简单的问题:您共购买了多少份人寿保险?比如,基本死亡与 残障利益、36种严重疾病、个人意外、医药卡、储蓄保险等等,您共有多少分?还是认为保险不重要,有基本的一点点保障就已足够?

第一个问 题,如果您的答案是前者,那恭喜您,因为您已培养了一定的储蓄纪律,每个月会固定把收入的一部分,例如10%先储蓄起来,以备将来之需,其余90%或更少 才用来供还车贷、房贷及其他生活开销。

如果您的答案是后者,那几乎可以肯定,您将永远无法存到一笔数目可观的钱,因为道理很简单,您总是 认为扣除了所有开销后,有多余的钱才会进行储蓄。没有养成良好的储蓄习惯,又或者有钱就存,要用钱就提款,银行户头的资金进进出出,怎会存到钱?

第 二个问题,如果您的答案也是前者,那也恭喜您,因为您拥有良好的保险观念,也对身边至亲拥有一定的爱与责任,懂得先未雨绸缪,在自己万一发生不测的情况 下,让家人在财务上拥有一定的保障。

车贷卡债危机祸首

如果您的答案也是后者,认为保险不重要,或可有可无,或有一点基本 保障就足够,那您除了缺乏保险意识,更重要的是根本没有责任感,也无法让家人未来的生活有一定保障,更无法让人家放心把女儿许配给您。

不 论是储蓄,还是保险,都是理财的一部分。而事实上,不仅个人需要理好自己的财务,家庭、企业和社会团体、机构,都需理好自己的财务,还有账目。

但 很可惜的,许多人不仅缺乏理财观念,无法理好自己的财务或生意的账目,搞到自己或生意上入不敷出,甚至债台高筑。更甚的是,许多大马人更因为无法摊还汽车 贷款、房贷、私人贷款、商业贷款、信用卡、所得税、贷学金或履行贷款担保,而被判入穷籍,宣告破产!

而且,国内破产案例还有年轻化的趋 势。2007至09年因卡债而破产的国人当中,虽有多达66%是45岁以上人士,但过去5年,平均每天有41名年龄介于25至44岁的青年申请破产,导致 他们陷入财务危机的祸首,便是车贷和信用卡。

医药费昂贵是主因

在过去的70个月内,更有多达3万8357名年龄介于22 至25岁的青年宣告破产。虽然从2005至今年10月的8万7583宗破产案例中,只有4651宗是因无法偿还卡债而破产,仅占破产人数5.3%,但情况 却不可掉以轻心。

没有保险或保障太少虽不会导致个人破产,但私立医院高昂的医药费,却成为国人无法偿还银行贷款与信用卡债的主因!根据国 家银行属下信贷咨询与债务管理机构的资料,5万零361人所欠的48亿令吉信用卡烂帐,大多出于无法偿还高昂的医疗费!

衍生社会问题

根 据该机构,截至今年10月,无法偿还银行贷款与信用卡债的主因当中,26%是因为无法偿还高昂医疗费,25%是因为不善理财,15%是因为无节制使用信用 卡。

很明显的,从以上数据看出,无论是无法还债,或甚至是破产者当中,很大比例不是没有量入为出,搞到负债累累,就是没有或不愿购买医药 保险,导致无法摊还医疗费欠下的卡债,这一切,都因为不善理财!若情势恶化,处理不当,甚至会造成更多国人非法借贷(大耳窿)或沉迷赌博求周转或翻身,演 变成家庭和社会问题!

教育下手从小培养

所以,当青年及体育部副部长颜炳寿表示将向教育部建议,将理财观念纳入国家教育体 系,以从小灌输国人理财观念,减少社会问题,笔者不仅深表赞成,更认为政府早该这样做。

颜炳寿说的没错,现有的小学、中学以至大学课本 内,都没有灌输理财观念,导致许多年轻人成为卡奴,或工作好几年都没有存款。

政府可以立法管制银行放贷,及征收信用卡50令吉服务费来减 少市场上信用卡的数量,抑制国人无节制刷卡,但这只是治标不治本。唯有从教育下手,从小培养正确的理财观念,才能根治许多国人理财不当,甚至债台高筑以至 最终破产的问题。

学会这些,你的事业最少成功了80%...

1.社会充满着不公平的现象。但你先不要想去改造它,只能先适应它。
(因为你管不了它。)

2.世界不会在意你的自尊,人们看的只是你的成就。在你没有成就以前,切勿过分强调自尊。
(因为你越强调自尊,越对你不利。)

3.你只是中学毕业,通常不会成为CEO,直到你把CEO职位拿到手为止。
(直到此时,人们才不会介意你只是中学毕业)

4.当你陷入人为困境时,不要抱怨,你只能默默地吸取教训。
(你要悄悄地振作起来,重新奋起。)

5.你要懂得:在没有你之前,你的父母并不像现在这样“乏味”。你应该想到,这是他们为了抚养你所付出的巨大代价。
(你永远要感恩和孝敬他们,才是硬道理。)

6.在学校里,你考第几已不是那么重要,但进入社会却不然。不管你去哪里,都要分等排名。
(社会、公司要排名次是常见的事,要鼓起勇气竞争才对。)

7.学校里有节假日,到公司打工则不然,你几乎不能休息,很少能轻松地过节假日。
(否则你职业生涯中一起跑就落后了,甚至会让你永远落后。)

8.在学校,老师会帮助你学习,到公司却不会。如果你认为学校的老师要求你很严格,那是你还没有进入公司打工。因为,如果公司对你不严厉,你就要失业了。
(你必须清醒地认识到:公司比学校更要严格要求自己。)

9.人们都喜欢看电视剧,但你不要看,那并不是你的生活。只要在公司工作,你是无暇看电视剧的。    
(奉劝你不要看,否则你走上看电视连续剧之路,而且看得津津有味,那你将失去成功的资格。)

10.永远不要在背后批评别人,尤其不能批评你的老板无知、刻薄和无能。
(因为这样的心态,会使你走上坎坷艰难的成长之路。)

学得会这些,你的人生最少成功了一半。

1人之所以能,是相信能。
2走自己的路,听别人的劝。
3是你的能力带领你到一个很高的位置,是你的品格决定你在这个位置可以呆多久。
4面子是别人给的,脸是自己丢的。
5能够说出的委屈,便不算委屈;能够抢走的爱人,便不算爱人。
6不怕被人利用,最怕你没用。
7没把握的事,谨慎的说; 伤害人的事,不能说; 别人的事,能不说就不说。
8给人以’惊喜’,不如给人以’踏实’。
9大多数人想要改变这个世界,但却罕有人想改造自己。
10还能冲动,代表你还对生活有激情;总是冲动,代表你还不懂生活。
11与其在’冷板凳’上哀怨,疑神疑鬼,不如调整自己的心态,把’冷板凳’坐热。
12快乐 不是因为拥有的多 而是计较的少。
13越是成熟的麦穗,越懂得弯腰。
14拥有梦想只是一种智力,实现梦想才是一种能力。
15嘉许是发现别人的优点,马屁事发明别人的优点。
16弱者相信命运,强者相信有因必有果。
17伤害别人的任期是最可怜,因为它的灵魂是最需要救赎的。
18有些事情今天是错的,到了明天也许就对了。
19拿望远镜看别人,拿放大镜看自己。
20心随路转,心路常宽,学会转弯也是人生的智慧。
21后悔是 比损失更大的损失 比错误更大的错误。
22越努力,运气就越好。
23两件事最让人有努力的力量:一是愿景,二是爱。
24我们人可能长得不漂亮,但不能让我们的人生不漂亮。
25一个人炫耀什么,说明内心缺少什么。
26强推倒了就是门。
27有时候我们对别人的小恩小惠感激不尽,却对亲人一辈子的恩情视而不见。

Hyundai, VW top insurance industry safe car list

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hyundai-VW-top-insurance-apf-3002591025.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

, On Wednesday December 22, 2010, 4:52 am EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- South Korean automakers Hyundai and Kia and German car maker Volkswagen lead the insurance industry's annual list of the safest new vehicles, used by safety-minded consumers looking to buy a new car.

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety recognized 66 vehicles on Wednesday with its "top safety pick award" for the 2011 model year, the most-ever awarded by the Virginia-based group. The number was more than double the 27 vehicles selected last year.

Hyundai Motor Corp. and its affiliate Kia Motors Corp., and Volkswagen AG and its Audi brand received the most awards with nine, followed by eight awards apiece by General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. The awards, used in advertising to attract car buyers, bolster Hyundai and Volkswagen as they attempt to build a larger foothold in the United States.

Hyundai's Genesis sedan, Sonata midsize and Santa Fe and Tucson sport utility vehicles picked up awards, while Kia was recognized for the Optima midsize car, the Forte and Soul small cars, and the Sorento and Sportage SUVs. Volkswagen won plaudits for the Jetta and Jetta SportWagen, the Golf and GTI small cars and the Touareg and Tiguan SUVs. Audi's A3 and A4 sedans and Q5 SUV also made the list.

Subaru and Chrysler received five awards apiece while Volvo and Mercedes had four. Subaru was the only automaker to win awards in every vehicle category in which it competes. Nissan and Honda had two awards each and Mitsubishi and BMW had one.

Hyundai said the award was particularly sweet for the Sonata, which also received the top score of five stars in the government's crash test program. The combination put Sonata "in a safety position unsurpassed in the industry," said John Krafcik, president and CEO of Hyundai Motor America.

Mark Barnes, Volkswagen of America's chief operating officer, said the recognition for VW was a "testament to our commitment to engineering safe vehicles."

GM's winners include the Chevrolet Malibu, Cruze and Equinox; Cadillac CTS and SRX; Buick LaCrosse and Regal and GMC Terrain. Chris Perry, vice president of Chevrolet marketing, said the award would build on "the already strong global safety reputation of the Cruze."

Ford's picks include the Ford Taurus, Fusion, Fiesta, Explorer and Flex; and the Lincoln MKS, MKZ and MKT. Ford vice president Sue Cischke said the Explorer, which arrived at dealer showrooms earlier this month, offered a good example of the company's safety improvements, including inflatable seat belts and technology that helps a driver maintain control of the vehicle along tough curves.

Toyota, which has grappled with several high-profile recalls during the past year, scored with the Toyota Avalon, Corolla, Sienna, Highlander and Venza; the Lexus RX; and the Scion tC and xB. Toyota said its eight safety picks were "reflective of our ongoing commitment to developing safe and reliable vehicles for our customers."

The vehicles were chosen for protection in front, side and rear crash tests. To qualify for the award, the insurance industry group also requires the vehicles to have anti-rollover electronic stability control, or ESC, and receive top scores in roof strength tests.

Institute president Adrian Lund credited automakers for "quickly rising to meet the more-challenging criteria for `Top Safety Pick.'" He said several automakers have requested tests for new models coming out early next year and Lund predicted more winners would be added.

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety: http://www.iihs.org

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Evergrn: 听其言而观其行 - 冷眼

http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=2414&extra=&page=2

2010-4-15
某人问:
Hi,

I am one of the minor shareholders of Evergreen Fiberboard Group. I am very interested to invest more in your company but my concern is that the company's products are sold in USD while costs are based on MYR. Can the company provide some guidance for the investors like me to estimate the impact of Ringgit appreciation to the company's earning? In view of the strong MYR, what are the measures the company has taken to prevent the earning from being deteriorated? Thank you very much.

COO reply:
Dear Investor:

My name is Mr. Kuo Jen Chiu, Chief Operating Officer of Evergreen Group.

First of all , thank you very much for your trust and investment in our company. In reply to your concern, which I wouldn’t say there is no impact, but to be exact it is short term. In other words, long term wise it is comfortable.

Out of our total sales, 30% is domestic, in other words not subject to currencies impact, and from our total cost ex-factory, 30% (Glue cost) is US peg, that means this cost is not subject to currency fluctuations, that means out of 70% of our sales that is related to export, 30% of the cost is US peg, the net effect is 42% exposure to the impact of currencies fluctuations.

Action taken
1) The good thing is the market has strengthened a fair bit and we are able to increase prices, even the slower market experienced in the far east has picked up lately and we are able to increase prices by Usd 10/ cubic metre.

2) Before we had anticipated this situation to happen and of course hedging could be a solution, but in 2008, Ringgit was as strong compared to current situation and we hedged at that time at 3.2-3.28 level for a period of almost a year with 15%-20% of our group sales. We suffered exchange losses especially 1st half of 2009. We are worried to commit the same mistake and that is why we decided to work hard to open up more domestic market then to do more exports and exposed to this currencies fluctuations.

On the other hand, we are taking taking steps to convert some of our loans to USD base so as to act as a natural hedge and we can use the proceeds to pay off some loans, furthermore interest is fairly low compared to ringgit interest.

Hope I have answered to your questions and feel free to write to us as and when you have doubts. Our group is still very healthy and our net gearing has gone down to 0.42 as compared to 0.72 a years ago. I believe going ahead the road will still be a bit bumpy but we are in good shape to weather through.

Rgds
Jen Chiu

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have asked the management with regards to the possibility of share buyback due to the undervaluation of the share. But, they say the priority will be paying down the debts and reward shareholder with dividends to compensate them for the dividend not paid during 2009(I think they show this by the 2 cents dividend for 1st Q). I personally prefer part of the fund intended for dividend to be diverted to share buyback as it will bring much more good to the shareholder in the long run.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010-11-26

Vivian

Please see the reply in red.

Thanks.

> Subject: Investor enquiries
>
> Hi,
>
> I'm one of the shareholder for Evergreen. I'm very impressed by Evergreen for having prudent and aggressive plans for future growth. I am glad to join one of the world top MDF manufacturers. I have few questions would like to ask and appreciate if you are able to take some of your valuable time to feedback:
>
> 1) The company are planning to invest in rubber wood plantation to secure wood chip supply.
> In that case how long does a rubber wood take to be mature as raw material?
> Is it cost efficient to grow own rubber wood?

The plan is to get cheap plantation land to plant both fast growing species (ie acacia) and rubber wood species. Both species will take about 5 years to be mature as raw material for MDF production. But since Rubber Tree has more commercial value, considerations will be also on tapping rubber and have longer growth period before it is cut down. In answering to your question, it is not so viable to grow rubber trees for wood, but more for latex. As for other species (fast growing), i think it is viable as it cost less to plant these other species. Anyway these are just plans and must get cheap land then it would be viable. Still working on it and nothing concrete yet.
>

> 2) How is the current utilization of Indonesia MDF plant?
> As mention in latest quarter report, some technical problems in Indonesia MDF plant had been rectified, are those the problems that affect the efficiency of operation in the past?

Normally it takes about 3-5 months to correct things up and run to efficiency. Indo plant was commissioned in Aug 2010 and we expect 2011 onwards it will contribute to 85% utilisations. Currently it is running at 55-60% utilisation rates.
>
> 3) Will it be higher dividend to be pay out in next quarter if there are no significant capex plans?

Certainly if no significant capex plans.
>
> 4) How the company will respond to the current weakening of share price?

With more dividend payout, which we are targeting 30-60% payout, it gives a dividend yield of about 5.5-7.5%, think it should be quite attractive price at moment and price should hold well.
>
> Thanks in advance.

Monday, December 13, 2010

一句脏话感动老婆(分享)赞赞!

一男子醉酒后半夜回家,醉的不醒人事,可是 他第二天醒来发现并没有像他想象的那样糟糕,房子里干干净净的,桌子上还有个便条:


昨天晚上你喝醉了,早饭我做好了在厨房,你的衣服也洗干净了,下次不要这样啊————爱你的老婆。


他不明白,每次他醉酒后老婆都是大发雷霆, 他感觉怪怪的。就把儿子叫来问:

“我昨天怎么了?”

儿子回答:

“没什么啊,你回来后,妈妈一直再骂你,然后你在水龙头上喝了点凉水,然后妈妈就帮你脱衣服”。


男子又问:

“我说什么了么?”

“你说了很多话,都是乱七八糟的话,啥也听不出来!”

“别的呢?”


儿子又说:

“对了,你裤子上吐的很脏,妈妈给你脱裤子的时候你骂了她一句:

“滚开,我是有老婆的人!”

妈妈就不骂你了

Friday, December 10, 2010

[荐] 胡立阳:A股市场迎来投资黄金期

http://622004694.qzone.qq.com/blog/1291915816

来源:中国证券报 2010-12-08 09:21:07

25年前,我从华尔街回到台北,当时我不想当投资家,而想当股市的教育家,这种理想促使我用心观察世界多个市场。A股市场设立之后,我开始关注大陆股市。 经过近20年的发展,可以说大陆股市无论是在交易制度上,还是在市场规模上,发展速度都是世界第一;大陆投资者对投资知识和信息的渴求也是世界第一。这不 是恭维的话,也不是说大陆股市已经非常完美。而是说大陆股市已经长大成人,并且迎来了投资的“黄金期”。

  观察大陆股市的成长轨迹,我有一种似曾相识的感觉。这种感觉也许源于我对台湾股市的认识和了解。20年前,也就是大陆股市萌芽之时,台湾股市已 经开始发展融资融券,当时台湾有很多人质疑:融资还说得过去,融券会不会导致市场动荡不安、暴涨暴跌?20年过去了,事实证明,融资融券几乎没有产生什么 负面作用。在那之后2-3年,股指期货市场又开放了,同时还放宽外资投资限制。市场质疑之声再起:这岂不是好处都让主力资金和外资给占去了吗?结果再次证 明,这些改革和创新不但没有令股市动荡不安,反而熨平了股市的波动幅度。因为,市场上既有做多力量,也有做空力量,两者力量达到平衡时,市场波动幅度就降 下来了。台湾当时引进的是多种类型的外资,他们的操作方法、观点、收益率要求都不一样,有的是买进持有,有的是波段交易,有的只赚固定收益,他们之间的竞 争也很激烈,这使市场同质化趋势被打破,市场产生平衡效应。这一点与香港、新加坡等股市的发展是一脉相承的。

  很多人也许会问,大陆股市也有融资融券,也有股指期货,同样也有外资参与,为何波动幅度却越来越大。其实,根本原因还是操作方法、投资理念、收 益追求等太过于同质化。一旦来了利空,大家都看空;来了利多时,又一致做多,从而导致市场出现经常性暴跌和暴涨。要打破这种局面,需要更多地引进不同类型 的外资,吸收境外不同类型的投资理念,市场波幅才会降下来。

  投资者教育很重要,大陆的投资者投机性较强,做得太短,喜欢追涨杀跌。我有时候很心疼,市场都到了一个很低的位置,还有投资者不断把便宜筹码扔 给主力们。其实,对普通投资者来说,赚大钱要靠长线投资,比如微软、苹果及台湾的鸿海,在过去20年中给长线投资者带来上百倍甚至千倍的收益。而且,我还 认为,目前是长线投资大陆股市最好的时机,因为A股市场目前足够低,大陆经济又足够好。

  随着市场的发展,这种机会会越来越少。金融创新的进一步深化、对外资的全面开放,投资者多元和投资产品多元化,未来的A股市场会越来越温和,资 本市场将成为一个包罗万象的金融百货公司,大起大落的行情会越来越少,发大财的机会也会越来越少。到时候,当股市处于相对高位时,人们才想起长线投资会有 多么重要。所以,我现在经常会告诉投资者:“股市本来就是起起落落的,别人犯错的时候,都是在为你累积财富提供良机。”

  目前也许仍有很多人非常担心通胀。其实,从统计数据来看,只要通胀比率低于经济成长率的一半,就不要太担心。假设我们今年的GDP增长10%, 只要CPI低于5%,大家就不用害怕。这尚属温和通胀。事实上,看看印度及其它新兴市场,现在通胀率都到了7%、8%甚至10%以上。他们的GDP增速远 远低于大陆,只有6%、7%、5%,CPI却到了7%、8%、10%。说明大陆的经济是最棒的。

  从全球宏观方面的状况来看,全世界出现了一个非常奇怪的现象,我称为“水火同源”。全球可划分为两部分,一部分是新兴市场,像中国大陆、巴西等 很担心通胀,因为经济发展得过快了;另外一半则是以欧美为代表,尤其是美国,他们很担心经济二次衰退。在全球经济史中,我没有找到过这种记录,即全世界可 以一分为二,一半担心通胀,一半担心衰退。以前都是像传染病一样,通胀一来,全世界通胀;经济衰退一来,全世界衰退。现在刚好是一半一半,很奇妙。

  这一半一半对股市有什么影响呢?在这样的情况下,如果资金是非常充沛的,股价只会继续往前冲。但是上有锅盖,下有铁板,会卡在中间某个地方,因 为有人担心通胀,有人担心衰退。资金流动很痛苦。久而久之,就会产生一个现象:市场要匍匐前进,行情特色是不会涨得太快,下跌也不容易,好像在一个箱子之 中上上下下,可趋势是向上的。对于大陆股市而言,我强调得最多的是信心,大陆经济正蓬勃发展,股价跟经济最后是会结合到一起的。在短时间内,碰到一些利 空,大家过度紧张会造成股价下跌,但是它最后还是会回归经济基本面。

  当然,我也要强调,股市永远是“反人性”的市场,美国市场是这样,香港市场是这样,台湾市场也是这样。A股20年前是这样,今天是这样,20年 后也仍是这样。我想说的是,市场制度的建设和创新,只是尽量给投资者提供一个“三公”市场,但无法保证每位投资者赚钱。要想在这个市场上大放异彩,我们需 要不断修炼。我觉得,一个对研究毫无兴趣、对数字模糊而又概念不清,毫无主见、人人亦云,没有深谋远虑、没有企图心的人是难以在市场上有大作为的。这也是 为什么无论哪个市场,也无论什么时候,总存在“七二一”定律(七亏二平一赚)的主要原因。

  20年过去了,市场发生了翻天覆地的变化,但人性的弱点依然是贪婪和恐惧。因此,我时常告诉普通投资者,做股票的第一目的也许并不是赚钱,而是享受它带给我们的生活乐趣。享受投资的过程比结果更重要,不把做股票当成压力,也许反而会有意外收获。  

KFC India by KFC Malaysia

KFC India, a subsidiary of Kuala Lumpur-based KFC Malaysia, has been operating in India since a year, and has already opened six stores in the state of Maharashtra -- four in Mumbai, one in Pune and one in Aurangabad.

The KFC has plans to increase its number of stores to 17 next year, says Hezal Ahmad, the CEO of KFC India.

"India is a very interesting market because of its people, their lifestyle, diverse cultures and incredible business opportunities. The earning potential is unlimited. Our expansion will initially concentrate in Mumbai and Pune, both in Maharashtra, before we venture into other states.

"We owe our success in Mumbai to its people who are very cosmopolitan and open to new ideas and food," said Johor-born Hezal in an interview with Bernama during a recent Malaysia Sports Day 2010.

The receptiveness of the Mumbai people to KFC has been "phenomenal", as Ahmad puts it because of the exposure Mumbai's young people and professionals have had to international cuisines.

The KFC brand was easily recognised and accepted, he said.

The people of Mumbai also appreciated the idea of self-service in restaurants. "The self-service concept is a new trend in India and is gaining ground. The customers in our stores can have full meals and not confine themselves to mere snacking," he said.

The KFC India, is in fact, doing better business than its parent company in Malaysia. "Mumbai is better than Kuala Lumpur or anyone else in Malaysia in terms of sales turnover of restaurant stores.

"KFC India employs about 300 workers, 90 per cent of whom are Indians and the remaining 10 per cent are Malaysians. We have brought here our 37 years of skills and expertise from Malaysia," he said.

India's cash-rich middle-class is discovering the advantages of convenience foods which are however not always beneficial to good health.

"The future is bright for us in India. The country is also self-sufficient as far as ingredients for food preparation are concerned. We don't have to rely on imports of ingredients, as is the case with Malaysia, and can source these in India itself.

"Of course, we have brought the equipment needed for preparation of food, but then that is a one-time expenditure. India's middle-class is growing, at present, at a much faster rate than in Southeast Asian countries," said Hezal.

KFC India buys chicken from Vanky's India Ltd in Pune and Godrej Food Ltd in Mumbai.

Asked if he had encountered any difficulties in adjusting to the people, the food and the environment, Hezal said there has been initially some problems resulting from the hot and fried Indian food which he was not accustomed to.

"There were also frustrations over transportation and red tape. It took us two weeks to open a simple corporate account with a local bank in Mumbai.

"Workers' productivity was another problem, though it has improved now," he added. -- Bernama and Business Times

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Paramount declares 40c special dividend

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/178223-paramount-declares-40c-special-dividend.html

Wednesday, 08 December 2010 19:14

KUALA LUMPUR: Paramount Corp Bhd announced a windfall for its shareholders with the declaration of a special dividend of 40 sen per share.

The company said on Wednesday, Dec 8 the dividend would go ex on Dec 21 and the entitlement date would be Dec 23

Paramount, had on Dec 1, completed the sake of its 20% stake in Jerneh Insurance Bhd to ACE INA International Holdings Ltd for RM130.8 million cash.

The company’s other core businesses are rental of residential and commercial PROPERTIES, property development and CONSTRUCTION. It has a stake in KDU College Sdn Bhd.

眼看股价就快下跌了,就赶快公布特别股息来扶持,管理层好贱 我喜欢。

计算一下:
sell jerneh 将会有 130 mil 进账。
40sen股息 X 120 mil 股 = RM48mil。(sap sap sui 而已)

股价 4.78 - 0.40 = 4.38.
eps 2010 estimate 0.70

PE = 6.25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.investlah.com/forum/index.php/topic,12999.msg231308.html#msg231308

In fact, the announcement of 40 cents dividend could well be the first of many goodies that we could hope to receive.

First, Paramount might consider returning the balance proceeds estimated at another 60 cents per share to the shareholders in the event that there is no land acquisitions in sight within the next 6 months. This is the assurance given by Dato' CQ Teo, Executive Chairman of Paramount, made during the EGM.

Second, there could be plans to give out bonus issue in an effort to boost the liquidity of its shares, which could take place as early as next year.

Third, they are already in the midst of working out a strategic plan, which involve the future listing of their education business after its KDU College has recently received approval from MOHE to upgrade to University College status, hence further enhancing the value of Paramoung shares.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

according to egm, if they dont find suitable land for property development, will pay out further 60sen in special div(from jerneh sales).

year end soon, another 30sen dividend possible!
and the valuation for their business is still low!!! so there is still value at current price. plus next year their international school is up! plus they just got university status.

plus according to dato a bonus issue might b coming soon!
so next year lots of development too in property arm, where this year super profits!!!

So, there could be more upside to the current market price if we can hold the stock long enough to reap its benefits.

THEY Really can giv out so much dividen meh ?
分到来,股价如果剩3块多,eps 还是 5,6毛,那不是很便宜?

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Maybulk-Court case clears up uncertainty on pink forms

Monday, December 6, 2010

The High Court has ruled that Malaysian Bulk Carriers was right to reject share application from three individuals although they had been alloted pink forms.


A LANDMARK court case between Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (MBC) and three individuals that will define the importance of pink forms seems to have ended in favour of the shipping company.

The High Court yesterday ruled that MBC was right to reject share application from the three individuals although they had been alloted pink forms.

The court dismissed the application filed by the three months ago, claiming that MBC was wrong to go back on its offer to allot them collectively 1.6 million shares.

The plaintiffs were former and current employees of Global Maritime Ventures Bhd, a subsidiary of Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Bhd.


A pink form is an application form that is typically reserved for company employees.

In an oral judgment made in the Shah Alam High Court yesterday, the judge dismissed all three plaintiffs' claims with costs.

Written grounds were not delivered. The decision was made after written submissions were presented to the court last week.

The plaintiffs will decide on the next course of action, once written grounds are delivered.

The judgment, for now, has defined the importance of a pink form for an initial public offering (IPO) distribution of shares, long time seen as a guarantee of shares by the investing public.

"As far as we are concerned, it's a good decision.

"It puts into perspective the role of the pink form as an invitation to treat (an invitation to offer for the shares) and not as an offer of the shares, and that it also has to follow the normal application process - subject to the terms and conditions of the application form and prospectus," MBC solicitor Tay & Partners partner Leonard Yeoh said.

He said the judgment was a landmark decision because it clears up uncertainty on the matter of pink forms, practised in Malaysia and Singapore, especially for those companies going for IPOs.

The offer was made to the three in appreciation of their contribution to the success of MBC towards an IPO in 2003.

The court battle lasted for almost six months. The case was heard some seven years after MBC undertook IPO and listed its shares on December 2 2003.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Save on your income tax

http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=4757

- under the National Education Saving Scheme, you can file up to a max of RM3k per yr for deposits made.

- u can claim up to RM300 each year for any purchase of sports or exercise equipment.

- investments into Deferred Annuity Schemes from insurance companies entitle you to an additional RM1k in relief on top of existing relief for EPF contributions and life insurance premiums.

- u can claim up to RM3k a yr for education and medical insurance.

- enrrolled in a post-graduate, u r entitled to a total relief of up to RM5k per yr.

- donation (no limit stated)

- filing seperate tax returns may allow u to enjoy lower tax brackets.

- pay your parents' medical bils, u can claim up to RM5k in total relief.

- u can claim a deduction of up to RM500 per yr for a full medical examination and up to RM5k on medical expenses for yourself, ur spouse or ur children for serious illness.

- u can claim up to RM1k for any purchase of books.

- save RM500 for broadband subscriptions.

- buy a PC and claim up to RM3k once every 3 yrs.

- get a 50% exemption on stamp duty for the purchase of property that cost less than RM250k. this is given for 1 house per individual and applies SPA signed between sept07 to dec10.

- get RM10k max relief on housing loan interest for the purchase of 1 unit of residential property for SPA signed between 10th march 09 to 31st dec 2010.

有錢人想的和你不一樣 Secrets of the millionaire mind



http://ninipipi.blogspot.com/2007/07/secrets-of-millionaire-mind.html


今天介紹一本改變我的想法很大的好書,名為有錢人想的和你不一樣Secrets of the millionaire mind 。

作者:T. 哈福‧艾克 (T. Harv Eker),現為巔峰潛能訓練公司董事長。他發現每個人心中都有一張金錢藍圖,假如不修改這張藍圖,那麼就算賺了大錢,這筆錢也不會停留在身邊太久。

本書為他的第一本, 出版後立即登上美國各大暢銷書排行榜的第一名。

財富檔案:

01、有錢人相信:〔我創造我的人生〕。窮人相信:〔人生發生在我身上。〕
02、有錢人玩金錢遊戲是為了贏窮人玩金錢遊戲是為了不要輸。
03、有錢人一直努力讓自己有錢窮 人一直想著要變有錢。
04、有錢人想的很大窮 人想得很小。
05、有錢人專注於機會窮 人專注於障礙。
06、有錢人欣賞其他有錢人和成功人士窮 人討厭有錢人和成功人士。
07、有錢人與積極的成功人士交往。窮 人與消極的人或不成功人交往。
08、有錢人樂意宣傳自己和自 己的價值觀窮人把推銷和宣傳看成不好的事。
09、有錢人大於他們的問題窮人小於他們的問題。
10、有錢人是很棒的接受者窮人是很差勁的接受者。
11、有錢人選擇根據結果拿酬勞窮人選擇根據時間拿酬勞。
12、有錢人想著:〔如何兩個都要〕。窮人想著:〔如何二選 一〕。
13、有錢人專注於自己的淨值窮 人專注於自己的工作收入。
14、有錢人很會管理他們的錢窮 人很會搞丟他們的錢。
15、有錢人讓錢幫他們辛苦工作窮 人辛苦工作賺錢。
16、有錢人就算恐懼也會採取行動窮 人卻會讓恐懼擋住了他們行動。
17、有錢人持續學習成長窮 人認為他們已經知道一切。

致富法則:

01、你的收入,只能增加到你最願意做到的程度。

02、如果你想改 變果實,你首先必須改變它的根﹔如果你想改變看得見的東西,你必須先改變你所看不見的東西。
03、金錢是一種結果。財富是一種結果。健康是一種結果。生病 是
一種結 果。你的體重也是一種結果。我們活在一個有因有果的世界。
04、設定產生想法,想法產生感覺,感覺產生行動,行動產生結果。
05、假如我們的潛意識必須在深植的情感和冷硬的邏輯這兩者之間
作出抉擇,情感幾乎是每戰必勝的。
06、如果你的動 力來源並不是正面的作用,例如你是出於恐懼、憤怒而想致富,或者只是為了證明自己而想成功,那麼你的錢永遠不會帶給你快樂。
07、如果想徹底 改變室內溫度,唯一的辦法是重新設定溫度調節器。同理,想徹底改變你的理財成績,唯一的辦法是重新設定你的財務溫度調節器,也就是你的金錢藍圖。
08、保持自覺,就是可以時時觀察自己的想法跟行動,好讓你能夠
做出自己真心想要的抉擇,而不是被過去的設定所操控。
09、你可以選擇那些會鼓勵你獲得幸福和成就的思考方式,而捨棄
那些不能支持你獲得幸福的思考方式。


   受害者特徵一:責怪   
   受害者特徵二:合理化
   受害者特徵三:抱怨


10、錢,在它能 發揮效用的地方實在是太重要了﹔而在它不能發揮作用的地方,它就完全不重要了。

11、你在抱怨的時候,其實是在吸引更多爛事進入你的生活中。

12、 天下沒有所謂〔有錢的受害者〕這回事!
13、如果你的目標是過得舒服就好,你就很可能永遠也不會有錢。
但是如果你的目標是賺大錢,那麼你最後很有可能會舒服 得不得了。
14、大部分人沒辦法得到他們想要的東西,最大的原因是他們不知
道自己想要什麼。
15、如我你不是全心全意、真心真意想創造財富,那麼你很可能創
造不出多大的財富
16、你的收入, 與市場認為的你所產出的價值成正比。
17、祝福你所想要的任何東西。
18、領導者賺的錢遠遠多跟隨者!
19、成功的秘訣,就是不要逃避問題,不要在問題面前退縮﹔成功
的秘訣就在於你要 成長,讓自己大於一切的問題。
20、如果你的生活裡有一個大問題,這只說明了一件事:你很 小!
21、如果你說你 有價值,你就有價值。如果你說你沒有價值,那麼你就沒有。然後你就會依照你的故事版本而活。
22、如果一株百呎高的橡樹擁有和人一樣的心靈,那麼它頂多只 能
長到十呎。
23、凡是出現一個給予者,就有一個接受者﹔而每一個接受者的對
面都是一個給予者
24、金錢只會讓 你現有的自己更加擴大。
25、你做一件事情的方式,就是你做所有事情的方式。
26、擁有穩定的收入沒什麼不對,除非它阻礙了你用自己的能力 賺
取你所值得的金錢,問題是,〔穩定的薪水〕這概念往往就會阻礙你賺更多錢。
27、永遠不要為你的收入設定上限。
28、有錢人相信:〔魚與熊掌可以兼得。〕小康階層認為:〔熊掌
太貴了,所以我只 吃一小片就好。〕窮人說自己吃不起熊掌,所以他們吃魚,但又惦記著自己吃不起熊掌的事,滿心 疑惑為什麼自己〔什麼都沒有〕。
29、真正衡量財富的標準是淨值,不是工作收入。決定淨值的四項
因素是:收入、存 款、投資、簡化。
30、注意力所在的地方,就會有能量流動,也就會出現結果。
31、除非你能管 理你現有的一切,否則你不會再得到更多!
32、你管理金錢的習慣,比你擁有的錢財數目更重 要。
33、不是你控制錢,就是錢控制你。
34、有錢人把每一塊錢都視為種子,把它種下之後可以多賺一百塊
錢,再把這些賺到 的錢種下,又多回收一千塊錢。
35、行動是內在世界和外在世界之間的橋樑。
36、真正的戰士 可以馴服這條叫做恐懼的眼鏡蛇。
37、不必把恐懼除掉也能成功。
38、如果你只願意做輕鬆的事,人生就會困難重重。但如果你願 意
做困難的事,那麼人生就會變得輕鬆。
39、你只在一個狀況下是真正在成長的,那就是你覺得不舒服的時
候。
40、就追求成功和快樂來說,你最應該學習的技巧,就是訓練並管
理你自己的心。
41、你可以是對 的,你也可以是有錢的,但你不會兩者都是。
42、每一位大師都曾經是個大失敗。
43、想要得到最好的薪水,你必須是最好的。

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Tongher - What is steel billet

From Alex Lu posting posting:
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2010/12/tongher-bullish-breakout-in-slow-motion.html


Here is some important point:

Tongher is mainly involved in the manufacture & sale of stainless steel fasteners (nuts & bolts).
It has a 37%-stake in Fuco International Ltd, which holds a 90%-stake in Fuco Steel Corp Ltd.
The latter will be involved in the manufacture & sale of steel billets in Vietnam.
The steel billets mill is now under construction & nearing completion.

Check out this little snippet on steel projects in Vietnam (here). Tongher's fasteners business suffered over the past 2 years due to anti-dumping charges leveled against it by the European Commission.

In July this year, the company learned that the EC proceeding has been terminated. With the termination of the anti-dumping charges, Tongher's export business should pick up.

For more, go here.
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What Is Steel Billet?

Before steel products are sold on the market, the steel must first be processed into more functional pieces. Raw steel cannot be of use while in its pure form, thus it has to be cast into shape. The freshly made steel, which is still in the form of a metal bar or rectangle, is called steel billet.

    Uses

  1. Billets, or ingots (as they sometimes referred to), are not of practical use until they have been formed into more functional shapes and sizes. While they have already been put in the furnace, they still require a series of shaping and molding procedures such as hot and cold working, milling and cutting before they are sold in hardware stores, or used for different applications. The unformed billets, however, can be used in striking currency such as coins and as reserves, similar to gold bars.
  2. History

  3. Steel billets became popular in the early 1800s, just after the British colonization of the United States ended and American entrepreneurs began to manufacture brass and bronze billet, which later became one of the fast-rising industries in the new country. Copper and iron were almost not to be found in the United States back then, as the British transported all American copper to Britain for further molding and processing.
  4. Features

  5. Steel billets have distinct characteristics as compared with already furnished steel bars and products. Billets have a specific grain structure, which enables the metal to be processed more intricately. Steel billets are also known for their malleability and ductility, especially when exposed to varying temperatures during shaping and molding.
  6. Processing

  7. Steel billets are considered fresh and raw, and they must undergo a series of manufacturing processes before they can be used for various purposes. Billets are made by means of freezing molten liquid, and are later exposed to extremely low temperatures in order to allow the metal to take shape and solidify in chemical structure. The temperature manipulates the metal's physical properties, and tones its strength and durability. The subsequent processes provide the metal's curved mold design so that it can fit the allotted space provided by other machines, which complete the finishing procedures.
  8. Casting

  9. Proper casting of steel billet is important, as it determines the quality of the steel product upon going through the final processing stages. These include the billet's strength and flexibility. The billets undergo a number of tests before they are sold. Billets that develop cracks and voids in between heating and cooling processes are rejected, as such defects make the product useless.

Monday, November 29, 2010

非法下載網民有難

(吉隆坡26日訊)大馬網友上網非法下載電影、歌曲等的現象已「勢不可擋」,然而下個月若國會修法成功,將阻攔網友繼續侵權盜取,網友更可受到版權擁有者 起訴而惹官司!

國內貿易、合作社及消費人事務部將向國會提呈《1987年版權法令》修訂法案,以賦權互聯網服務供應商(ISP)中止涉及非法上傳及下載侵權檔案的用戶, 甚至提供相關資料給版權擁有者。

換言之,非法下載的網友身份將大曝光。而國內的互聯網供應商包括馬電訊、明訊、數碼網絡等。
目前大馬網友通過多種軟件「免費」下載歌影視等的檔案,已成為大馬網民生活的一部分。
貿消部副部長拿督陳蓮花向《東方日報》表示,該部門已完成所有的工作,目前該法令已交由總檢察署審核。

「部門希望能夠在本季的國會議會提呈有關修訂法案,惟目前依然等待總檢察署作出最後審核。」
馬來西亞唱片業公會總裁陳業夫在接受《東方日報》的電訪時指出,修訂法案將允許版權擁有者向互聯網服務供應商作出投訴,以要求供應商警告非法下載的用戶, 並提供用戶資料予版權擁有者用作起訴之用。

用戶可被終止服務
他表示,在現有法令下,版權擁有者有權起訴提供管道給民眾非法下載的互聯網服務供應商,「不過,我們也認同這對互聯網服務供應商不公平,因此,一旦修訂法 案在國會獲得通過,將賦權這些公司對付他們的用戶,甚至中止他們的互聯網服務。」

陳業夫指出,版權擁有者一旦發現本身的版權遭到互聯網用戶盜用,即可向相關的互聯網服務供應商發出書面通知,要求他們針對有關用戶採取行動。
「互聯網服務供應商將先向非法下載的用戶發出第一封警告信,一旦重犯則將接獲第二封警告信,倘若他們不願停止非法下載活動,互聯網服務供應商可直接中止他 們的服務。」

三國已落實執法

他透露,互聯網用戶通過點對點(peer-to-peer,P2P)服務非法分享及交換侵權文件如音樂、電影及電腦軟件等,因此通過修訂這項法案將保護版 權擁有者的權益。
「根據全球的統計,每分鐘就有幾百首歌曲通過P2P技術平台分享出去,這導致版權擁有者面臨嚴重的損失。」

他續指,一旦《1987年版權法令》修訂法案取得通過並執行,大馬將成為繼台灣、韓國及紐西蘭之後,第四個落實相關措施的地區。
陳業夫相信,通過這項法令的修訂,將能夠遏制國內的非法下載活動,繼而減輕唱片業者所面對的嚴重虧損。



The free-and-easy days of illegal downloading of music and movies may soon be over. A new law will enable Internet Service Providers (ISP) to suspend or terminate the Internet accounts of P2P (peer-to-peer) users.

This new law called the ISP Liability act, will be tabled in Parliament next month, according to Recording Industry Association of Malaysia (RIM) chairman Norman Halim.

RIM has been lobbying the Government for an ISP Liability act for the past 5 years as illegal online downloads have been cannibalising the legitimate sales of music, worldwide.

"The act makes the ISPs responsible for curbing online piracy. The ISPs will be fined if they don't take action against illegal downloaders. The ISPs have the technology to track P2P users," said Norman.

However, he said that the fine amount was yet to be determined.

ISPs will send two warning letters to illegal downloaders. Should the downloaders still persist, the Internet access will be suspended or even terminated.

"Other countries that have such an act, have seen its respective music industries recover. One good example would be South Korea," he said.

世界10国的军力

1、美国人的实力:想打谁就打谁
2、英国人的实力:美国打谁我打谁
3、俄罗斯的实力:谁骂我我打谁
4、法国人的实力:谁打我我打谁
5、中国人的实力:谁打我我骂谁
6、日本人的实力:谁打我我让美国打谁。
7、韩国人的实力:谁打我我和美国一块演习。
8、以色列的实力:谁心里想打我我就打谁
9、朝鲜人的实力:谁让我心里不痛快我就打韩国
10、新加坡的实力:谁心里想打我我就把飞机大炮调回来排在你家门前。
11、马来西亚的实力:X的,是谁打我?大伙快把引擎找回来!

錢就是要這樣流通

這是炎熱小鎮慵懶的一天。太陽高掛,街道無人,時機歹歹,每個人都債臺高築,靠信用度日。

這天,從外地來了一位有錢的旅客,正開車通過鎮上。他在一家汽車旅館前停車,進去後,拿出一张1000 元鈔票放在櫃台,說他想先看看樓上的房間,挑一間合適的過夜。

就在該名先生上樓的時候,店主抓了這張1000 元鈔票,跑到隔壁屠戶那裡付了他欠的錢。屠夫有 了1000 元,橫過馬路付清了欠豬農的錢。豬農拿了1000 元,奔向飼料和燃料供應商,也付清了他欠的錢。那個在農會做事的老兄,拿到1000 元,趕忙去付清他召妓的錢(經濟不景氣的時候,當地的服務業也不得不提供信用服務)。有了1000 元,這名妓女衝到旅館付了她所欠的房間錢。

旅館店主把這 1000 元放到櫃檯上,以免旅客下樓時起疑。此時這位旅客下樓來,拿起1000元鈔票,聲稱客房沒一間滿意的,他把錢收回,塞進口袋,走了。

這一天,表面看起來, 沒有人生產了什麼東西,也沒有人得到任何東西。但是現在全鎮的債務都清了,解决了每一个人的问题,而且以更樂觀的態度面對未來。 錢就是要這樣流通。

Monday, November 22, 2010

My Invincible STREAMYX connecting record

I was browsing my PC old files, and i found this. LOL
I think this was done by me 5-6 years ago, HAHAHA.

15 days 5 hours (PC+modem+streamyx) no shutdown no hang no disconnect !!!

i m Proud of this 自爽, 哈哈哈


How to make your boss like you (FULL version)

There was a previous post How to make your boss like you

Here is the scan FULL version from the magazine.






胡立阳出人头地法则

不要只听周遭朋友的话,因为90%以上的人都是平凡人,只能给你平凡的建议。

不要只知道用功读书,更重要的是读对的书。

不要只知道努力工作,更重要的是做对工作。

不要只结交志趣相投的朋友,否则你永远只看到一半的世界。

不要只是默默期待升迁,要勇于创造自我推荐的场合与机会。

不要以为机会只是留给准备好的人,它会留给主动向它叩门的人。

不要以为钱不会从天上掉下来,只是你必须站对地方接。

不要只会正面思考,要逆向思考,不正常的人才能出人头地。

无题

有时候, 爱情在我们心底深处, 怎么也说不出口。。。

有时候, 爱情已经变调, 我们却欺瞒自己, 认为一切都会好转。。。

有时候, 爱情在一瞬间离你我远去, 心痛的感觉令人无法再支撑一秒。。。

放在心里的是那么多, 每一件都沉重到难以负荷。。。

其实,只要再勇敢一些些,

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Q2 net more than halves

August 25, 2010




MALAYSIAN Bulk Carriers Bhd (MBC), a shipping group, said its second quarter net profit more than halved due to stock market and foreign exchange losses as well as lower earnings from its associate company.

But the group, controlled by tycoon Robert Kuok, is confident that business will remain good based on its existing contracts.

MBC posted a net profit of RM32.84 million in the second quarter ended June 30 2010, against RM72.45 million a year ago. For the six-month period, its net profit was marginally lower at RM85.84 million, against RM88.5 million in the same period last year.

Revenue jumped 36 per cent to RM96.07 million in the second quarter. It surged 71 per cent to RM123.07 million for the first half period.


The results were slightly below some analysts' expectations.

During the six-month period, it made foreign exchange losses of RM12.6 million, due mainly to the weaker US dollar and some RM13.3 million provisions for the fall in value of quoted investments.

Looking at the group's operations alone - without accounting for its associates, foreign exchange or stock market investments - MBC posted operational profit of RM66.7 million for the six-month period, more than 50 per cent higher than the RM40.9 million in the first half of last year.

The group's business is driven mainly by its dry bulk carriers and tankers. Dry bulk carriers are used mainly to carry unpackaged bulk cargo like grains, coal, ore, and cement. Tankers are used to carry liquid in bulk, like oil and chemicals.

MBC chief executive officer Kuok Khoon Kuan remains optimistic of its outlook for the rest of the year, based on the contracts and jobs for its dry bulk carriers.

"I'm optimistic in terms of the company's operational level. So far, 70-80 per cent of our fleet is already covered for the year," Kuok said at a media and analysts' briefing in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

It expects the tanker business to remain challenging, due partly to slower oil and gas drilling activities in the US. So far, half of its tanker fleet has been filled up.

MBC's shares on Bursa Malaysia declined 0.34 per cent, or 1 sen, to close at RM2.87 yesterday.