失恋的良药

古希臘哲學家蘇格拉底見到一位年輕人茶飯不思，精神萎靡，其狀甚哀。
蘇格拉底：孩子，為什麼悲傷？

失戀者：我失戀了。

蘇格拉底：哦，這很正常。如果失戀了沒有悲傷，戀愛大概也就沒有什麼味道。可是， 年輕人，我怎麼發現你對失戀的投入甚至比對戀愛的投入還要傾心呢？

失戀者：到手的葡萄給丟了，這份遺憾，這份失落，您非個中人，怎知其中的酸楚啊。

蘇格拉底：丟了就是丟了，何不繼續向前走去，鮮美的葡萄還有很多。

失戀者：等待，等到海枯石爛，直到她回心轉意向我走來。

蘇格拉底：但這一天也許永遠不會到來。你最後會眼睜睜地看著她和另一個人走了。

失戀者：那我就用自殺來表示我的誠心。

蘇格拉底：但如果這樣，你不但失去了你的戀人，同時還失去了你自己，你會蒙受雙倍的損失。

失戀者：狠狠地傷害她，我得不到的別人也別想得到。

蘇格拉底：可這只能使你離她更遠，而你本來是想與她更接近的。

失戀者：您說我該怎麼辦？我可真的很愛她。

蘇格拉底：真的很愛？

失戀者：是的。

蘇格拉底：那你當然希望你所愛的人幸福？

失戀者：那是自然。

蘇格拉底：如果她認為離開你是一種幸福呢？

失戀者：不會的！她曾經跟我說，只有跟我在一起的時候她才感到幸福！

蘇格拉底：那是曾經，是過去，可她現在並不這麼認為。

失戀者：這就是說，她一直在騙我？

蘇格拉底：不，她一直對你很忠誠。當她愛你的時候，她和你在一起，現在她不愛你，她就離去了，世界上再沒有比這更大的忠誠。如果她不再愛你，卻還裝得對你很有情誼，甚至跟你結婚，生子，那才是真正的欺騙呢。

失戀者：可我為她所投入的感情不是白白浪費了嗎？誰來補償我？

蘇格拉底：不，你的感情從來沒有浪費，根本不存在補償的問題，因為在你付出感情的同時，她也對你付出了感情，在你給她快樂的時候，她也給了你快樂。

失戀者：可是，她現在不愛我了，我卻還苦苦地愛著她，這多不公平啊！

蘇格拉底：的確不公平，我是說你對所愛的那個人不公平。本來，愛她是你的權利，但愛不愛你則是她的權利，而你卻想在自己行使權利的時候剝奪別人行使權利的自由。這是何等的自私。

失戀者：可是您看得明明白白，現在痛苦的是我而不是她，是我在為她痛苦。

蘇格拉底：為她而痛苦？她的日子可能過得很好，不如說是你為自己而痛苦吧。明明是為自己，卻還打著別人的旗號。年輕人，德行可不能丟喲。

失戀者：依您的說法，這一切倒成了我的錯？

蘇格拉底：是的，從一開始你就犯了錯。如果你能給她帶來幸福，她是不會從你的生活中離開的，要知道，沒有人會逃避幸福。

失戀者：什麼是幸福？難道我把我的整個身心都給了她還不夠嗎？您知道她為什麼離開我嗎？僅僅因為我沒有錢！

蘇格拉底：你也有健全的雙手，為什麼不去掙錢呢？

失戀者：可她連機會都不給我，您說可惡不可惡？

蘇格拉底：當然可惡。好在你現在已經擺脫了這個可惡的人，你應該感到高興，孩子。

失戀者：高興？怎麼可能呢，不管怎麼說，我是被人給拋棄了，這總是叫人感到自卑的。

蘇格拉底：不，年輕人的身上只能有自豪，不可自卑。要記住，被拋棄的並非是不好的。

失戀者：此話怎講？

蘇格拉底：有一次，我在商店看中一套高貴的西服，可謂愛不釋手，營業員問我要不要。你猜我怎麼說，我說質地太差，不要！其實，我口袋裏沒有錢。年輕人，也許你就是這件被遺棄的西服。

失戀者：您真會安慰人，可惜您還是不能把我從失戀的痛苦中引出。

蘇格拉底：是的，我很遺憾自己沒有這個能力。但，可以向你推薦一位有能力的友。

失戀者：誰？

蘇格拉底：時間，時間是人最偉大的導師，我見過無數被失戀折磨得死去活來的人，是時間幫助他們撫平了心靈的創傷，並重新為他們選擇了夢中情人，最後他們都享受到了本該屬於自己的那份人間之樂。

失戀者：但願我也有這一天，可我的第一步該從哪裡做起呢？

蘇格拉底：去感謝那個拋棄你的人，為她祝福。

失戀者：為什麼？

蘇格拉底：因為她給了你份忠誠，給了你尋找幸福的新的機會。

Customs tax service wildcard for MyEG

Written by Insider Asia

Friday, 04 March 2011 11:21

MyEG Services is Malaysia’s dominant e-services player, providing a wide range of government-to-citizen (G2C) services. The company, which started with a concession to provide drivers’ licence theory tests for the Road Transport Department (JPJ), has expanded its portfolio to offer additional services from JPJ and other government agencies. It now offers 19 services from seven service suppliers. Apart from an online presence, MyEG also has a network of 65 e-service centres nationwide. The company’s earnings are poised to grow rapidly in the next few years, driven by (1) continued growth in the road tax renewal service, (2) increasing network, coverage and market share, with its expanding number of e-service centres, and (3) new products and services, the most important being the immigration and customs service tax monitoring initiatives. MyEG is now embarking on a new phase of growth as it expands its services to include those from the Immigration Department (for maid and foreign workers’ annual permit renewal), and most significantly, a customs tax-monitoring service with the Royal Malaysian Customs. Under the customs tax monitoring scheme, MyEG has a 40% stake in a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that will link up point-of-sales (POS) terminals of businesses that are subject to customs’ service taxes, such as restaurants and entertainment outlets. The SPV will spend RM100 million on capex, but will receive a 20% share of the taxes that were previously found to be under-declared, with the lion’s share of 80% going to the government. This will give MyEG a potentially large wildcard from FY June 2013 onwards. However, it is too preliminary to assess at this juncture, as much depends on how much tax was under-declared in the first place. The service will also be compatible with a GST regime that is likely to be implemented at a later stage, giving the company a potentially wider earnings base. Another key earnings driver will be the immigration services, where MyEG will offer online foreign worker permit renewals, potentially tapping a two million people market. In the near term, the company’s earnings will continue to be driven by the road tax renewal services which are growing rapidly. The service currently attracts over 5,000 road tax renewals a day, with an estimated 30% market share. The drivers’ licence theory tests and e-insolvency searches, meanwhile, will provide steady income. We expect net profit to rise by 20.3% to RM25.3 million in FY11 and 20.4% to RM30.5 million in FY12, assuming no contribution from the customs tax service in FY11-12. At 74.5 sen, its shares are trading at P/E multiples of 17.7 times FY11 and 14.7 times FY12 earnings. While these P/E valuations do not look very attractive after last year’s strong price rally, they are still reasonable relative to their double-digit strong growth, high return on equity of over 24% and net profit margin of above 30%. More attractive is the ability for earnings to surprise on the upside from FY12 onwards due to the customs tax monitoring, immigration and other services in the pipeline. The underlying market for MyEG’s services is very large, with relatively resilient and recurring demand. Demand is also being supported by the growing popularity of online services and transactions for convenience and cost reasons. Road tax renewal and JPJ service Launched in April 2008, the road tax renewal service has been the main driver of MyEG’s growth over the last two to three years, with the original drivers’ licence theory tests and insolvency search services providing stable income. The service is likely to continue seeing strong growth in the near term, as it is still rapidly gaining market share and acceptance after a heavy advertising and brand-building exercise. MyEG has two main business models for the road tax renewal service — an online and a kiosk-based one, both of which have been very well-received. For the kiosk-based service, MyEG has signed up a number of financial institutions and placed a kiosk in selected branches of the financial institutions, as well as its own service centres. These kiosks will provide MyEG with an additional physical network and customer base. We understand the online service currently attracts over 5,000 transactions per day, a significant increase from 3,000 per day a year ago. Growth has been strong due to growing customer acceptance, the ease and convenience of the online service, reasonable charges and heavy advertising. We understand MyEG now has a market share of about 30% of total road tax transactions for passenger cars issued daily. The number of ancillary motor insurance premiums sold daily has also doubled from about 150 to over 200 in the past year. The management is optimistic of continued strong growth for the service in the next two years, before it reaches saturation point. The company has been seeing its transaction volume growing a robust 8% month-on-month in the last few months. Once the business matures, MyEG expects more steady income and growth to be driven by the immigration and customs initiatives. The market for road tax renewal services is supported by a large number of vehicles and drivers, with road taxes that need to be renewed annually, annual insurance premiums and drivers’ licences renewal due every five years. Other JPJ services in the pipeline include e-application of vehicle registration numbers and online vehicle ownership transfer. Immigration services MyEG soft-launched its new e-immigration service in April 2010. This involves the online renewal of foreign workers’ permits. At present, the service caters for domestic maids, but will be extended to cover other foreign workers at a later stage. Once the service is fully in place, employers of foreign workers — such as factories, businesses and households (for domestic maids) can apply for the renewal of their foreign workers’ permits online, hassle-free and at minimal costs. Most renewals are currently undertaken by agencies, who charge high fees of around RM200 per renewal, especially for domestic maids. MyEG is offering a cost-effective solution, charging RM50 per transaction, excluding the government levies. We understand the specially printed permits will be personally delivered to the customers’ homes or offices by MyEG’s personnel team, who will affix it to the workers’ passports for security reasons. With an estimated two million foreign workers in Malaysia, of whom about 250,000 are domestic maids, the potential for this service is large — and recurring. For the domestic maid permit renewal service, we understand MyEG currently has about 70-80 cases a day. Once the service is expanded to cover other workers, we expect volume to increase significantly. Customs tax monitoring The Customs tax monitoring service, in conjunction with the Royal Malaysian Customs, will be the most significant of the new services proposed. This involves linking up POS terminals of businesses that are subject to customs’ sales and service tax (such as restaurants and entertainment outlets) to minimise under-declaration of taxes and administrative paper work. The service will be undertaken via a SPV, where MyEG will hold a 40% share and several other private parties the balance. The SPV will undertake the programme and install a software at each POS terminal for the link-up — at the SPV’s cost. We understand the cost is as much as RM5,000 per full system terminal, for those without compatible POS terminals. In return, the SPV will receive a share of the additional service and sales taxes collected. Earnings visibility for the new service is uncertain at this juncture, as it depends on how much sales and service taxes were “under-declared” in the past, which cannot be ascertained. According to management, the sharing ratios between the government and the SPV are 80% and 20%, respectively, of the under-declared taxes, with a base growth imputed. The potential market is large. We understand the service tax base is about RM4 billion in 2010, of which about RM2 billion is for category C and D businesses, namely restaurant and entertainment outlets. The remaining RM2 billion is from professional services as well as gaming. Equally though, it is a high risk-high return investment on the part of the SPV, given the sizable capex needs. Total capex is estimated at RM100 million for the first phase, of which RM20 million has been spent. Substantially more may be needed for the later stages and when GST is eventually implemented. The SPV plans to start with a pilot test phase in May 2011, which will continue until the end of the year, with a full rollout of the service in Jan 2012. The pilot phase will involve some 2,500 premises under licence categories C and D, while the actual rollout will capture about 15,000 outlets under these two categories. Its infrastructure is compatible with a goods and services tax (GST) system as it is essentially a POS system to capture the value of sales. With the likely implementation of GST at a later stage, the scope of the SPV’s business should expand as most businesses will be captured under the GST system, unlike the current service tax regime, which focuses on selected businesses. Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 4, 2011.

nifong 的分享

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2490&extra=&page=108

庄家都离场了，但还没有完全离完。以下是我的一些看法：

1） 其实很早之前，部分庄家就已经开始离场了，尤其是投资在2、3线股的庄家。至于1等1的上好股，庄家还紧紧控制着，以致指数一路走来都很美。

2） 很多2、3线股的牛市顶点都出现在2010年6月到8月间，甚至有些更早至去年4月。从那时起，庄家就开始托着市来出票。所以大家可留意KLSE的大部分 2、3线股。从去年那段时间开始，他们的价格便开始越做越低。直到今天，很多已从高点跌了30%或更多。那段期间，很多股票行发表预测，看好什么什么股， 建议大家买（例子我不举了）。

3）从去年下半年开始，有不少2、3线股便开始在图表技术上出现牛尽熊来的征兆，已带头开始反转，但是庄家为了不让大家看得出，便无时无刻的造市，使到 KLSE指数和一部分的股继续走势漂亮。其实，在一个大牛市的来临前，几乎所有的股走势都很漂亮，很少会出现两极化的现象。

4）其实从去年开始，我就发现许多股出现两极化的现象，就是说有的越做越高，有的越做就越横摆着低，跌破上升趋势线。那时我就觉得很奇怪，开始怀疑牛市已 在顶部不远或已过了，因为每次的熊市来临前一段日子，都会有不少2、3线股带头往下走低，与大势的走势背道而驰，这是不详的征兆。

5）目前，庄家在2、3线股的票已出的七七八八，还有很少量而已。因为大势还没坏，他们也不需杀着下，反正票很少，还是免费票（已赚够了），没到危急关头 就不需抛售，托着来丢是最好的策略。至于1等1的好股，那些是长期投资，庄家是两边玩的，高就丢一点，低就拾回来一点，只有等到真正崩盘时才会看到比较多 的出售。

总结的说，我认为目前熊市来临的几率已达到70%，当然并不排除庄家要造市，硬硬拉高变大牛市的可能，前提是外围市场不能坏。即使是如此，我们也不能奢望那些已走低了的2、3线股会牛市重临。

（纯粹是个人看法，任何因此造成的买卖和损失自负！）

当你复习不进去的时候，不妨看看大脑是怎么想的？

在期末考试复习期间，看到这篇文章，觉得讲得挺好的, 故转载了。

尽管科学家一个接一个的科研成果让我们对记忆有了越来越多的了解，但直到今天，科学家所发现的所谓大脑的秘密也只是冰山一角，在很大程度上，大脑和记忆仍 是神秘的。研究人员认为，记忆是一个过程，并且当你记忆的时候，实际上就是你把保存在大脑中零零碎碎的信息进行重建。但让人不解的是，究竟是什么东西引发 大脑开始这个重建过程？这个谜团继续等待科学家们去寻找答案，但有20个事实是已经科学家证实了的。

1.大脑喜欢色彩。平 时使用高质量的有色笔或使用有色纸，颜色能帮助记忆。

2.大脑集中精力最多只有25分钟。这是对成人而言，所以学习20到 30分钟后就应该休息10分钟。你可以利用这段时间做点家务，10分钟后再回来继续学习，效果会更好。

3.大脑需要休息， 才能学得快，记得牢。如果你感到很累，先拿出20分钟小睡一会儿再继续学习。

4.大脑像发动机，它需要燃料。大脑是一台珍 贵而复杂的机器，所以你必须给它补充“优质燃料”。垃圾食品、劣质食品、所有化学制品和防腐剂，不仅损害身体，还削弱智力。英国一项新研究显示，饮食结构 影响你的智商。

5.大脑是一个电气化学活动的海洋。电和化学物质在水里能更好地流动，如果你脱水，就无法集中精力。专家建 议，日常生活要多喝水，保持身体必需的水分，而且一天最好不要饮用相同的饮料，可以交换着喝矿泉水、果汁和咖啡等。另外，研究资料显示，经常性头痛和脱水 有关。

6.大脑喜欢问题。当你在学习或读书过程中提出问题的时候，大脑会自动搜索答案，从而提高你的学习效率。从这个角度 说，一个好的问题胜过一个答案。

7.大脑和身体有它们各自的节奏周期。一天中大脑思维最敏捷的时间有几段，如果你能在大脑 功能最活跃的时候学习，就能节省很多时间，会取得很好的学习效果。

8.大脑和身体经常交流。如果身体很懒散，大脑就会认为 你正在做的事情一点都不重要，大脑也就不会重视你所做的事情。所以，在学习的时候，你应该端坐、身体稍微前倾，让大脑保持警觉。

9. 气味影响大脑。香料对保持头脑清醒有一定功效。薄荷、柠檬和桂皮都值得一试。

10.大脑需要氧气。经常到户外走走，运动运 动身体。

11.大脑需要空间。尽量在一个宽敞的地方学习，这对你的大脑有好处。

12.大脑 喜欢整洁的空间。最近的研究显示，在一个整洁、有条有理的家庭长大的孩子在学业上的表现更好。为什么，因为接受了安排外部环境的训练后，大脑学会了组织内 部知道的技巧，你的记忆力会更好。

13.压力影响记忆。当你受到压力时，体内就会产生皮质醇，它会杀死海马状突起里的脑细 胞，而这种大脑侧面脑室壁上的隆起物在处理长期和短期记忆上起主要作用。因此，压力影响记忆。最好的方法就是锻炼。

14. 大脑并不知道你不能做哪些事情，所以需要你告诉它。用自言自语的方式对大脑说话，但是不要提供消极信息，用积极的话代替它。

15. 大脑如同肌肉。无论在哪个年龄段，大脑都是可以训练和加强的。毫无疑问，不要寻找任何借口。不要整天呆在家里无所事事，这只能使大脑老化的速度加快。专业 运动员每天都要训练，才能有突出表现。所以你一定要“没事找事”，不要让大脑老闲着。

16.大脑需要重复。每一次回顾记忆 间隔的时间越短，记忆的效果越好，因为多次看同一事物能加深印象，但只看一次却往往容易忘记。

17.大脑的理解速度比你的 阅读速度快。用铅笔或手指辅助阅读吗？不，用眼睛。使用这种方法的时候，需要你的眼睛更快地移动。

18.大脑需要运动。站 着办公效率更高。

19.大脑会归类，也会联系。如果你正在学习某种东西，不妨问问自己：它让我想起了什么？这样做能帮助你 记忆，因为大脑能把你以前知道的知识和新知识联系起来。

20.大脑喜欢开玩笑。开心和学习效率成正比，心情越好，学到的知 识就越多，所以，让自己快乐起来吧~！

蘋果市場策略：大和小原理

http://differentapple.blogspot.com/2011/01/blog-post_24.html

如果說蘋果的產品成功之道是：加法 和減法原理，那麼蘋果市場策略的成功之道就是：大和小原理！
大和小指的是"數目"的多少。
蘋果現在是世界市值第一大的科技公司，但其產品線卻出其意外的"少"！Steve Jobs1997年班師回朝時第一個動作就是減少產品線！大家簡單就可算出蘋果的 產品：
硬體：iPod (nano, shuffle, classic), iPod Touch, iPhone, iPad, iMac (21,27), Apple TV, Mac mini, MacBook Air (11,13), Macbook, Macbook Pro (13, 15, 17), Mac Pro。大約十一大項而已，而每一項內容差異小。
甚至也可簡單分為電腦和行動裝置兩項而已！
軟體：OS X, iLife, iWork, Aperture, Final Cut (studio, Express), GarageBand Jam, Apple remote control, iTunes, 等。
軟體相對於硬體對營收是微不值道。
所以蘋果產品線好少！產品線少，表示很集中！ 可以集中火力全開！研發集中、廣告集中！看看Sony和三星的多角企業就可知。對手火力無法集中！
蘋果營收高，利潤高，加上蘋果手頭現在有597 億美元可動用(可動現金最多的科技公司)。這是天文數字。
錢多，火力集中，代表的便是"大"！
而蘋果深知"大"(多)的好處：
蘋果在財報時宣布以39億美元買下未來兩年的零組件，只為了確保供給無誤。但這金錢很大，故所買的數量極多！將使相關市場的零組件產生供給問題，和綁價合 約問題！這金錢很大，同樣每個零組件公司都想要這筆生意，因此蘋果可壓低進貨價格！
其他公司想拿到同樣的零組件時，一會因為供需問題而無貨，或是因為價格問題而買不下去！你買的少又要比蘋果便宜有可能麼？除了低品質零件。
Steve Jobs先前的演講已說出對手之所以不出10吋平板，而選擇7吋之因：不是7吋比較好，是因為10吋價格無法跟iPad比！譬如若蘋果將所有
39億美元的錢去買iPhone的螢幕，可買1億3600萬，若買iPad螢幕，可買6千萬個 (根據 Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley)。因此將使觸控螢幕市場被蘋果控制。這兩年的flash會斷斷續續缺貨也是因為蘋果iPhone的關 係。
其他廠買的零件貴，產品只能賣的貴，出貨將減少，又要跟其他非蘋果廠商競爭，市場規模小，成本高，你可能打敗蘋果麼？
所以大和小是相關連的，因小而大，因數目小而數目大！
蘋果的市場優點：產品線少，研發集中，廣告集中，量大，成本低，鎖市場，若加上蘋果的產品品質，口碑，形象，領袖魅力，團隊創意，再加上無可取代的"內 容"，還有生態園區的各個單元的息息相關.......你可能打敗蘋果麼？
難！難！難！
這就是"大和小原理"！
所以短時期iPad Killer不要想蘋果，應先爭老二才是，這就是老二哲學！也是Killer成功之道，先殺其他Killer！