nuffnang

Friday, April 30, 2010

2010, day 77-81

day 77
3532, TOPGLOVE 不落人后, 买 1 送 1 ,真的有, titan vs success , titan 暂时领先
中钢门全部买来回了,一个星期,兜了一圈,才多赚 33 块 ,remiser 还赚比我多

day 78
3461, titan vs success 势均力敌,双方闭市价都是 1.23
2010 Q1 TITAN total borrowings outstanding = RM785.1 million.

day 79
3316,titan vs success = 1.23 both same price
kossan 1 free 1 = 股价掉
topglove 1 free 1 = 股价掉
Harta 可能 2 free 1 ? = 股价也掉 ?
红股魔咒!!!

day 80
3322, 现在我的 titan 和 sucess 的 quantity 是一样多的。
所以我才会每天 titan vs success, 正在考虑 success 拿来换美德,success 不会动,就等美德有掉一点点就换,美德比较便宜,可以买比较多 titan win today

day 81
3433, Topglove 难逃红股魔咒, titan 1.30,success 还在1.2x睡觉

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Topglove 2006 当年 private placement 的一些看法

2006 当年的 private placement

General Announcement
Reference No MM-070207-64968

Submitting Merchant Bank

:

RHB INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD
Company Name

:

TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD
Stock Name

:

TOPGLOV
Date Announced

:

07/02/2007


Type:Announcement
Subject:TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BERHAD ("TOP GLOVE" OR THE "COMPANY")
Placement of up to 27,217,902 new ordinary shares of RM0.50 each in Top Glove ("Shares"), representing approximately 10% of the enlarged issued and paid-up share capital of the Company after the completion of the proposed bonus issue as announced on 17 October 2006 (the "Proposed Bonus Issue") (the "Placement")

Contents :

We refer to Top Glove’s announcements dated 4 January 2007, 17 January 2007, 2 February 2007 and 5 February 2007 in connection with the Placement ("Announcements"). Unless otherwise defined, the defined terms used in the Announcements shall apply herein.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of Top Glove, RHB Investment Bank Berhad (formerly known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad) ("RHB INVESTBANK") is pleased to announce the completion of the book-building process in relation to the Proposed Placement. Top Glove has appointed RHB INVESTBANK, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd and CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd as Joint Bookrunners for the Placement.

The issue price was fixed at RM8.80 per Share (which represents a discount of approximately 4.97% to the 5-day weighted average market price of Top Glove Shares up to 6 February 2007 of RM9.26 and a discount of approximately 5.38% to the closing price of Top Glove Shares on 6 February 2007 of RM9.30).

This announcement is dated 7 February 2007.

(RM 8.80 - par value 50 sen) X 27,217,902 股 = RM 225,908,586
扣掉par value成本后,RM 225,908,586 多得到的钱是放在 share premium account 的。

如今,经过 esos,
share premium account 已有接近 260 mil,
今天 proposed 1 free 1 bonus 是直接从
share premium 分

这样算不算是一种回馈股东能的做法,至少上次 private placement 的钱,今天 3年后,用 bonus 1 free 1 的方法,把钱分回了给大家。

这次的 bonus 并没有影响到公司的 retained profit.

Monday, April 26, 2010

冷眼分享集: 让时间通胀为你创富(下)

2010/04/24 6:15:33 PM
●冷眼

对于长期把钱存在银行的上班族,是在做“慈善”,因为他们把钱低息借给别人去赚钱,使别人富起来,自己却永远在贫困中打滚——对别人慷慨,对自己残忍, 唉!

参与股票投资的人数,肯定多过房地产投资者。因为股票投资额可大可小,有更多人负担得起,而手续也比房地产更简单,对懂得投资的人来说,股市是一座金矿。

然而,大部分人都在股市亏钱。其中最重要的两个原因是:

短线投资

第一:以赚快钱为出发点,没有让“时间”为你服务。在股市,时间的长短通常与盈亏成正比例。记得股票交易所曾在很久以前作过统计,一个经过谨慎选择的投资 组合,持有三个月,大部分亏本;持有五年,盈亏参半;持有十年,没有一个人亏本(大概如此)。

问题是绝大部分股市中人都是短线投资者,长线投资者寥寥可数,难怪亏蚀的总是比赚钱的少。

第二:错误的选择,买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与人合股做生意。合股做生意要有做生意的眼光,做生意的眼光是要经过长期的研究和观察才能得到的。

不幸的是大部分股票投资者都是上班族,对商业所知有限。上市公司,良莠不齐,一不小心,就会上了“贼船”,血本无归。

上班族要淌股市这一浑水,与其去学习猜测股市动向,不如培养看生意的眼光。不断的问:这种生意可以赚钱吗?公司组织健全吗?掌舵人有诚信吗?这种生意有可 能持久吗?你买进一家公司的股票,不是因为别人告诉你这只股票价格会起,而是因为这家公司营业和盈利会越来越好。

必须投资

如果选对股票,长期持有,收益不在地产之下。

“投资”不限于地产和股票。任何有利可图的东西都可以成为投资对象,但有一个原则:不了解,就不投资。

要了解,就要做功课。

上班族的一个通病,是把投资视为可有可无的事,不肯化时间和精神去研究和思考。做工当然要尽责,但是单靠做工,无法改善生活,也无法使你退休后的生活有保 障。脱贫,必须投资,而且越早开始越好,让时间和通胀为你创富吧!

与其成为时间和通胀的受害者,不如以其人之道,反治其人之身——使你成为受益者。这个转变,其实只系于一念之间:投资还是不投资,只是一念之差,后果却有 天壤之别!

What is share premium account

Share Premium

Share Premium - Market Value vs. Book Cost

A share premium is the amount paid for an equity in excess of its nominal value, that is; its market value less its book cost.

For example, five years ago when a UK limited company was registered, it issued 100 shares for £1 each (their nominal value). Today, after years of successful trading the company has a market value currently of £100,000. On the basis that no further shares have been issued, the market value of each unit of equity is now (£100,000 divided by 100) £1,000.

If one share was sold today and £1,000 was received, the share premium would be (£1,000 less £1) £999.

The purchaser would be deemed to have paid a premium on the purchase which would be recorded in the share premium account in the company's books.

Conversely, had the company's trading performance been very poor or if it had remained dormant since its formation, it might still be valued at £100 in total. The purchase of one share would therefore remain at its initial cost of £1. As the original nominal value was £1, no share premium would be deemed to have been paid on this transaction.

Share Premium Account

The sum of share premium which a company receives for all past transactions of its equities would be disclosed as a separate note in the annual accounts.

An illustration of such disclosures is shown below.

Share Capital Account 30 June 2008 30 June 2007
Ordinary shares of £1 each 2,000 1,500
Share premium account 500 0
2,500 1,500
During the year ended 30 June 2008 500 ordinary shares of £1 each were issued to ABC limited at a price of £2 each. The amount received as consideration in excess of the nominal value is shown in the share premium account.

Top Glove Proposes Bonus Issue

From what i wrote on April 4th, and March 15th
http://peng01.blogspot.com/2010/04/topglove-again-peng01.html
http://peng01.blogspot.com/2010/03/topglove-1-for-1-bonus-issue-possible.html


AND NOW !!!, YES, it is bonus issue 1 for 1 for topglove, YEAH !!!

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_lite.php?id=493535

KUALA LUMPUR, April 26 (Bernama) -- Top Glove Corporation Bhd, the world's largest rubber glove manufacturer, proposes to undertake a bonus issue of up to 347.998 million new shares of RM0.50 each.

The issue is on the basis of one new share for every one existing share held on an entitlement date, to be determined later.

It also proposes to increase its authorised share capital from RM200 million comprising 400 million shares to RM400 million comprising 800 million Shares.

The proposed bonus issue shall be wholly capitalised from the company's share premium, it said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia Securities today.

Based on the audited financial statements of Top Glove as at August 31, 2009, the consolidated share premium of Top Glove stood at RM243.677 million.

It said the bonus shares will, upon allotment and issuance, rank pari passu in all respects with the then existing shares.

However, the new shares will not be entitled to any dividends, rights, allotments and/ or other distributions that may be declared, made or paid prior to the allotment and issue of the bonus shares.

On the rationale and justification for the proposal, Top Glove said it is currently the most appropriate avenue for the company, as it will reward existing shareholders by enabling them to have greater participation in its equity in terms of the number of shares held.

It also said the bonus issue enlarges the number of shares held by the company's existing shareholders, without increasing the percentage equity interest while improving the liquidity of shares on Bursa Malaysia Securities with a larger capital base.

Barring any unforseen circumstances, the application to the relevant authorities, in particular Bursa Malaysia Securities, will be made within one month from today, Top Glove said.

It expects the proposal to be completed by the third quarter of 2010.

--BERNAMA

Friday, April 23, 2010

Stay Lifted on Patent Infringement Complaint by Tillotson Corporation Against Top Glove Sdn Bhd

Tillotson Corporation announced today that the stay was lifted on the Patent Infringement complaint that it filed against Top Glove Sdn Bhd and TG Medical Sdn Bhd in the United States District Court for Northern Georgia. This complaint, in which Tillotson seeks damages for infringement of its Nitrile Glove technology, was originally filed in 2007, but had no activity while the International Trade Commission (ITC) investigation was active. With the conclusion of that ITC investigation, the Top Glove companies are now required to answer this complaint by the end of April 2010.

Neil Tillotson and Luc DeBecker developed and patented the Nitrile Glove technology in 1990. The Tillotson patent covers technology related to the production of a synthetic rubber glove that relaxes after being donned and comfortably conforms to the contours of the wearer's hand. The patent was reissued in 1997.

About Tillotson Corporation

Tillotson Corporation was started by Neil Tillotson, after selling his new invention, the world's first latex balloons, at the Patriot's Day Parade in 1931.

上次好像集体告了几件马奶的手套公司输了官司是吗?

这次又来告 topglove ?

topglove 是全球最大间的手套公司,难免树大招风,惹人眼红 . hahaha

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

topglove 已作出官方回应

General Announcement
Reference No TGC-100105-4C3DC

Company Name
:
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD
Stock Name
:
TOPGLOV
Date Announced
:
23/04/2010



Type
:
Announcement
Subject
:
Top Glove Corporation Bhd (“Company” or “Top Glove”)
- Reply to the Article published in The Edge

Contents
:
Top Glove refer to the article entitled “Tillitson : Top Glove must now answer infringement charges” appearing in The Financial Daily under home business on Friday, 23 April 2010, page 2 and in particular, the following statement in the reported article:

"...Tillotson announced that the stay on the patent infringement complaint that it had filed against Top Glove Sdn Bhd and TG Medical Sdn Bhd in the US District Court for Northern Georgia had been lifted."

"...the Top Glove companies are now required to answer this complaint by the end of April 2010...”

Top Glove would like to inform Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd that Tillotson Corporation (TC), in the United States has lifted the stay imposed by the U.S. District Court in Georgia of Patent infringement of nitrile gloves against Top Glove’s two subsidiaries.

Top Glove wish to advise that in the latest ruling of the U.S. ITC Federal Court for the Federal Circuit on 14 December 2009, it was decided that the Tillotson Patent on nitrile gloves (United States Patent No. 35,616) is invalid. TC has not appealed and the date of appeal has already lapsed.

In line with the decision of the U.S. ITC Federal Court, Top Glove are in the process of striking off this case. Our US lawyers are of the opinion that Top Glove has a very good case on the invalidity claim based on the ITC Court decision above.

Top Glove envisaged that there will not be any material implication to the performance of the Group as the infringement claims are only confined to sales of nitrile gloves to the state of Georgia which is not material to the total turnover of the Group.

This announcement is dated 23 April 2010.

Announcement Details

2010, day 72-76

day 72:
2956, 买回了大部分cscstel

day 73:
3024, 今天拿到 top gainer, topglove +0.40, 哈哈哈
想要体验上山下海,天堂地狱的快感,请购买顶级手套

day 74:
3165, 把success-os 卖掉了,扣掉水钱还有赚小小。
success dividen 3.5sen, 业绩还没公布,就提早公布股息来稳定股价,好贱
OMG, 鸟窝的业绩, eps 59.19 sen in 1 quater !!!!!!!!!!

day 75:
3399, 机器人 close 1.26 而已
今天 QL 终于爆了,我等了很久了。。。今天拿到 top gainer 第三名 QL yeah !!!

day 76:
3448, 8year 毒舌一出 ,所以今日我清仓 50% success 换 titan。
但是我自己的想法是。。。success 不想 share buy back @ 1.19 - 1.21 的价钱,所以提早公布股息来稳定股价在 1.25 左右。消息出来2天后,还是要死要死酱,没有人要买。 , 但是我也希望我的猜测是错的。
今天再买回cscstel,还差 2000 股就完成了我的回购计划。

不知不觉, total investment value 又回到了我资本开番了的价值

李财有方:未来的十年

2010/04/12 3:11:37 PM
●李孙耀(大马著名理财专家)

1980年,大学毕业生的薪水大约是800令吉。

1990年,大学毕业生的薪水大约是1200令吉。

2000年,大学毕业生的薪水大约是1500令吉。

2010年,大学毕业生的薪水大约是2000令吉。

根据刚刚公布的新经济模式的预测,到了2020年,大学毕业生的薪水大约会是4000令吉。

看到以上这些数据,你有什么感想?会很高兴吗?

有一位朋友告诉我:薪水的多寡是没有意义的,如果全部东西的价钱都跟着薪水的幅度向前跃进,再高的薪水也是没有用的。

这位朋友只是随口的回答而已,他并没有认真地去探讨这个新经济模式的影响力。

未雨绸缪

我们只是一介小市民,无法去改变政府的决策,所以,不管喜欢不喜欢,都只有接受的份儿。我们唯一做得到的,就是未雨绸缪,为新政策将带来的转变,提早作好 准备。

新经济模式告诉我们,国家将朝向高收入的社会前进,未来的十年,国民的平均收入将会提高一倍。

这是很大的转变,因为上一次,国民的收入增加一倍需要耗时20多年(根据以上的数据),现在是缩短了一半的时间。

收入增加一倍,东西的价钱也提高一倍,这又有什么分别?结果还不是一样?

不,不一样。因为物品有分本地货和进口货,进口货是根据国际的价钱,不管你的收入是多少,你都得照着国际的价钱来购买,除非是政府有补贴,它才能以低过国 际的价钱卖给你,最好的例子就是汽油。

只有本地货和服务才会跟着国民的收入来调整,薪水增加一倍,吃一顿午餐的花费也跟着贵一倍的可能性是存在的,但是,买一个进口的名牌皮包,我们就划算得多 了。所以,分别还是有的,收入增加带来的通货膨胀,再怎么说,都是好处多过坏处。

新经济模式肯定开跑了,处身在这个转角处,我们不能得过且过,过一日算一日,至少得做一点功课,花一点时间想一想,它会带给我们怎样的影响,然后尽早作好 准备,好好的去面对它。

未雨绸缪毕竟是理财的一个重要环节。

生活费高

未来的10年,可以预见的是,政府的补贴将会逐步的取消,而通货膨胀将会比过去的20年来的激烈。尤其是过去被补贴歪曲的物品价格,涨幅将更为可观。

所以,可以预期的是,未来10年的生活费将比过去的20年来得高。不过,个人收入的提高将会抵消这些负面的影响。

就举几个例子来思考:

过去的20年,房地产的涨幅已经够吓人了,未来的10年会不会更厉害呢?

这是值得深思的问题。

提高产能

通货膨胀会侵蚀金钱的价值,如果有多余的钱存放在银行,打算让它安安稳稳的再睡10年,是否是明智的决定呢?

这也是应该考虑的问题。

天下没有免费的午餐,收入的提高不会是自然而然的事情,个人生产力的提升肯定是需要的,老板多付你一倍的薪水,当然期望你能做更多的事情,这就是道理。

机会是留给有准备的人,未来10年的机会应该会比过去的20年来的多。

积极的作好准备,乐观的去面对,明天会更好。

李财有方:机会是留给有准备的人

2010/04/19 4:05:59 PM

有一位年轻人问我:白手起家是神话吗?现在的社会还有这样的机会吗?

他觉得自己没有机会了,因为他只是个上班族,除了要应付日常的生活费,还有贷学金和汽车贷款要供,连生活都成问题了,哪里还有发达的机会?

这是现实的问题,很多人都处在相同的困境,但是,如果想要发达,还是要克服这些问题。

理财致富的方法很简单,那就是储蓄,投资,然后耐心的等它开花结果。

首先是储蓄,如果你无法过节俭的生活,你就无法存钱,所以,理财致富的最具本条件就是:节俭。

尤其是开始阶段节俭更为重要,只有培养节俭的生活方式,才会有余钱来储蓄,这是谁也改变不了的事实。你不可能一面过奢侈的生活,一面又有大把的钱可以供储 蓄。

当然,如果你是高薪一族,那又是另外一回事。但是,不是每个人都有机会成为高薪的打工皇帝。

认真储蓄

身为普通的打工一族,如果你想要发达,你就要先存一笔钱,这是最起码的条件。如果你身无分文,就算有大好的机会出现在你眼前,也得白白的让它溜走。

机会是留给有准备的人,只要你是认真的储蓄,你就是在做准备。

存钱的目的是为了等待投资机会的出现,机会出现了就要敢敢的拿出来投资,然后耐心的等它开花结果,成功往往就是这样而来。

机会是留给有准备的人

有一位商人和我分享他的经验,这是发生在1994年的故事。

1993年是个超级的大牛市,股市从年头的650点狂升到年底的1300点,足足开了一个番。

很可惜,这位商人错过了这次的大牛市,整整的一年,他看着周边的朋友们个个如痴如醉,陶醉在股市中赚钱。他却尽量的克制,不让自己卷入这场疯狂的股市里, 他默默地储蓄,耐心的等待,等待机会的出现。

1994年初,炙热的股市终于崩盘了,指数从1300点,暴跌到928点,很多人因此而破产。就在这时候,机会出现了,有一位股友被银行逼仓,被迫把一片 土地出让,开价15万令吉,急售。

机不可失

这位商人见机不可失,马上拿出现款把这片土地给买下来。这片土地上面有一排木屋,商人也不急着把土地发展起来,所以就让原有的租户继续的租下去,就这样的 又过了十二年。

2006年经济蓬勃,土地周边新建了许多新的店屋,他知道机会成熟了,就决定跟着时势把这片土地给发展起来,他找来一位发展商,以合作的方式发展这片土 地。他出土地,发展商负责兴建,一共兴建了4间店屋,双方各拿两间。

结果,他只花了15万令吉就得到了两间完全没有负债的店屋。

今天,有人献价250万令吉要买这两间店屋,但是他并不打算脱售,因为这两间店屋可以给他带来可观的现金流。

节俭上瘾

他告诉我,当年他花15万令吉买这片土地的时候,一辆全新的C款马赛地的价钱是20万令吉。今天,他的土地已经变成了两间,每年可以为他带来十多万令吉租 金的店屋,他庆幸当年没有用这笔钱去买马赛地。

他应该还会继续的庆幸下去,因为今天他还是用国产车,还是继续的等待投资机会的出现,原来节俭的习惯染上了,要改也改不掉。

(作者为大马著名理财专家)

李财有方: 重视现金流李财有方: 重视现金流

2010/04/05 3:05:34 PM
●李孙耀

不管你的薪水有多高,公司给你的待遇有多好,因为你不是老板,所以时间一到你就得退休,退休后,现金流就终止了,那时候,你只能依靠你的储蓄过日子。

以上这段话,是一位老人说给他的孩子听的,他的孩子是个打工皇帝,每年收入超过20万令吉,但是生活奢侈,所以并没有多少的储蓄。老人担心孩子的未来,所 以时常提醒孩子,要努力的储蓄,以免将来过苦日子。

他的孩子唯一的资产就是那间公寓,还有大约20年才供得完的公寓。老人说,公寓是不能带来现金流的,但是,生活却得依靠现金流。

打工一族的现金流就是那个薪水,这是很有限的现金流。

到底这个现金流是多少呢?有一位即将退休的老师告诉我,他计算过了,从大学毕业那一天开始,到退休那一天,他这辈子所领取到的薪水大约是100万。如果老 师的薪水属于中等的水平,以此为标准,中等收入的打工一族,一辈子所可以领取的现金流,大概也就是100万上下。

居安思危

不过,老师是有退休金拿的,就算花完那100万,往后的日子还是有着落的,至少不必担心基本的生活费。但是,不是每个人都是公务员,不是每个人都有退休金 拿的,绝大多数的人到了退休后,只能指望那个公积金。

但是,根据公积金局的调查,大部分的退休人士在领出公积金后的五年内就会把它花完。问题是,退休后的岁月大概还有二三十年,前面的五年就已经把它花光了, 那么,往后的日子要怎么过?

所以,我们一定要懂得居安思危,趁着年轻,现金流充沛的时候,就要做出妥善的安排,以确保退休后,它还是可以源源不绝的供给,让我们过着舒适的生活。

这就是理财的重点,理财的目的不一定是要让我们致富,但是,却一定要能让我们衣食无忧一辈子。

俗语说:由俭入奢易,由奢入俭难。

克制自己

如果能够克制自己,养成节俭的习惯,不做奢侈的消费,那么,理财就是一门简易的学问了。

如果你很幸运,天生就是这一类的人,恭喜你了,只要你能善用你的储蓄,好好的去投资,你这辈子是不必愁了,衣食无忧肯定不是问题。

可是,绝大多数的人都不是这样子的,他们之所以节俭只是因为现金流不够,不是不懂得消费。住在大城市的人,要不懂得消费还真的是点难,因为太多的诱惑了。

有一对年轻夫妇告诉我,他们都是月入万元了,但是,却还是月光族,薪水每月都花光的月光族。

生活节俭

他们是怎样消费的呢?

很简单,平常日子里他们也会花600令吉去吃一顿法国餐。他们是赚钱高手,懂得如何去增加现金流,但是,更懂得如何去提升自己的生活水平。

努力工作,好好享受,这是他们的座右铭。他们觉得很奇怪,为什么别人赚钱比他们少,都可以有上百千的存款,而他们这么会赚钱,却只有还不清的卡债。对他们 而言,理财是门高深的学问,因为他们的字典里没有节俭这两个字。

所以说,现金流虽然重要,但是,懂得如何留住现金流更为重要。

培养节俭的生活习惯,远离奢侈的生活方式,唯有这样,理财的目的才有机会实现。

李财有方: 借钱买股票

2010/03/29 3:25:36 PM
●李孙耀 大马著名理财专家


富时隆综指又突破了1300点,有一位年轻的朋友雀跃万分,因为去年三月他用三块多的价钱买进的顶级手套,一年后的今天已经突破了13令吉,他的纸 上盈利已经是1万令吉了。

他问我:股票增值的速度比房地产还要厉害,既然我们可以借钱来买房地产,那么,是否也可以借钱来买股票呢?

他计算过了,如果去年他敢借3万多令吉来买10张顶级手套,今天他就已经净赚了10万令吉。

根据这个逻辑,借钱买股票的确是很吸引人。但是,借钱买股票就是投机,而投机的风险却是难于估计的,就让我讲一则发生在1997年的故事。

1997年初,股市进入疯狂的大牛市,综合指数再次的靠近了1300点,第二交易板的股票更是疯狂,全版的股票竟然没有一只是低过10令吉的价位。

那时候,随便买就随便赚,几乎每个人都赚大钱,去到那里都听到有人高谈阔论股票,人人都成了股票专家。

人人成股票专家

银行和股票行也大开方便之门,鼓励投资者使用按金户口(margin account)来投机,当时的按金户口是提供一对一的便利,借钱给客户去买股票。

有一位资深的投资者,他的投资方法很保守,多年来只是靠投资蓝筹股就给他赚了好多钱,但是,这次的大牛市和以前有很大的不同,他投资的大蓝筹股,比如马银 行,马电信,国能等等, 它们的涨幅却远远不如那些第二板的股票。

看到别人投机都赚大钱,而自己的投资却是赚不多,他也忍不住诱惑去开了一个按金户口。他把手上价值200万的蓝筹股都存入户口作为抵押,然后借钱来投机第 二板的股票,为了谨慎起见,他不敢动用全部200万的信贷便利,只是动用其中的50万来投机而已。

他认为这样做肯定是很安全了,因为就算股市大跌一半,综合指数从1300点跌到650点,他的按金户口也可以平安无事,而且他也绝不相信综合指数会暴跌到 650点,所以他就放胆的去投机了。

但是,人算不如天算,他怎样也想不到,1997年中爆发的金融风暴会这么的恐怖,股票竟然可以暴跌八九成,连蓝筹股撑腰的综合指数也会从1300点大跌到 260点。

风暴来袭的时候,股市节节败退,第二板的股票跌到粉身碎骨,连带蓝筹股也暴跌了八九成,他的按金户口终于告急了,股票行催债的电话响个不停,他只好四处张 罗去填这无底洞,但是还是无济于事。

千万不可玩margin

最后,当按金户口里的股票价值跌到只剩50万时,股票行就悉数把它们砍掉用来抵债,清偿了50万的债务之后,他的200多万也跟着泡汤了。

他的惨痛经验看起来很可怕,但是,在当时却是很普遍,几乎每个有玩按金户口的股友都经历了相同惨况,不管你的投资额是多少,只要你敢借钱来买股票,结局都 是一样的:全军覆没。

还记得有一位股友感叹地说了一句:记得告诉子孙们,千万不可玩margin。

这就是借钱买股票的可怕。

http://www.nanyang.com.my/sidelines/sidelines_articleDetail.asp?type=D&id=136737&sid=9&cid=1093

冷眼分享集: 相信事实轻听误事

2010/04/17 11:45:15 AM
●冷眼
根据大马股票交易所2009年报,投资者在中央存票机构开设的户口,多达400万个

一名投资者可能拥有超过一个户口,我们无法知道有多少个户口是重复的。即使是其中四分之一的投资者拥有两个或更多的户口,那么,大马股票市场就最少拥有 300万名股票投资者

这300万名投资者中,到底有多少名阅读公司的年报?没有人知道确实的数目,但是,肯定比我们想像的更少,因为在我所接触的投资者中,读年报的如凤毛麟 角。

由于大家都不做功课,对上市公司略识之无,他们所知道的,多数是一些不大确实的零碎知识,因此自己没有主张,总是希望听到别人的意见,尽管别人的意见也并 不怎样高明,仍被他视为至宝。

在股市中,当有人说股市会起时,起初人们还在怀疑,当说的人越来越多,看法渐趋一致,一个趋势,因而成形。

趋势一旦形成,群众化零为整,结合成一个整体,在这个整体中个人逐渐失去了思考能力,不再用脑思索,只是盲目地,凭着下意识,跟着别人向前走,趋势持续越 久,参加的人数越多,群体中个人的智慧越低,到了一个狂热的阶段,大家只是模模糊糊的,如行尸走肉般向前跨步,一个数以万计的人潮,实际上还能思考的,恐 怕就只有三、五个人。

这样的例子,不胜枚举。

跟在别人后面

这是我本身的经历。

有一次,我跟朋友到一个胜地观光,对通往景点的道路,完全陌生,而该地歧路颇多,正当我们无所适从的时候,我们发现一群人沿一条道路向前走,下意识里,就 认定这条道路既然有这么多人去,肯定是通向景点了,就跟在后面,最后我们真的到达目的地——厕所。

股市也是这样,置身股海,很少人有独立思考的习惯,绝大多数的人,是惟别人的马首是瞻,跟在别人后面,是最容易的事,至于别人所走的道路是否正确,却很少 人去理会,直到他发现他所跟随的人,其实也是一个瞎子,他所走的,其实也是错误的道路,那时他已走得太远,难以回头了。

所以,无论是股市或股票,都不可轻易相信别人的意见,要有自己的主张。尤其是股市的动向,谁也没有预测的把握,问别人等于问道于盲。

要在股市长期生存,要养成一种习惯,一切的决定,是根据事实,而不是根据别人的意见作出的。

巴菲特说:你的决定正确,是因为你是根据正确的事实作出的。

没有事实根据的意见,有如空中的彩虹,美不可言,但却不会长久。

记住,意见是免费的,也不需负任何责任,发表意见的人,也许只是根据当时的感觉脱口而出,过后也就忘得清光。

但听者反而如获至宝,铭记于心,何其不智。

死不认错·越陷越深

股票投资者还有一个通病,就是当他买错股票时,由于自尊心作祟,不但不肯承认错误,反而找出种种理由,将他的错误合理化,结果是泥足深陷,越陷越深。

我认识一名拥有辉煌学历的专业人士,事业很成功,但在股票投资上却败得一塌糊涂。我发现他的困境,是他那种死不认错的心理造成的。

赚钱就是英雄

股票投资是很残忍的金钱游戏,赚到钱就是英雄,赚不到钱就是狗熊,如果你买错了,切勿逞强,马上采取壮士断臂的行动,切勿优柔寡断,以至全军覆没。

在股票投资上,意见纷纭,如果你多阅读股票分析论文的话,你会发现,同一只股票,都有人同时看好和看坏,看多了反而使你无所适从,你也无从知道谁的推荐才 是正确的。

在这种情形之下,我相信事实。意见可以言人人殊,但事实却是不变的,相信事实,因为事实是没有偏见的。

当众说纷纭,前途不清晰时,只要你遵从以下五点,可以减少错误。减少错误,等于提高成功的把握:

1)尽量做功课,发掘事实。

相信事实,别人的意见,可以考虑,却不可尽信。

2)常识、常识、常识。

当一组意见出现,甚至一堆资料到了手中时,要判断正误,最好是诉诸于常识,常识就是“理应如此”。如果悖理,则意见无论怎样棒,消息无论多么好,都不可盲 从,更勿轻举妄动,以免落入别人的圈套。

3)养成反向的习惯。

当形势一片大好时,要想到盛极而衰,当月最圆时,也正是月缺的开始。当悲观气氛弥漫时,想到冬天过后,春天一定会到来。

孙子曰:“军争之难者,以迂为直,以患为利”(军争篇)(争取先机之利之所以困难,是因为要把迂回的弯路,变为直路,是把困难变成有利)。只有思想挣脱框 框的约束的人才能做到这一点。

4)不要感情用事。

养成理性思考的习惯,凡事权衡利害轻重后才采取行动。孙子曰:“合于利而动,不合于利而止”(九地篇)此之谓也。两利相权,取其大者,两害相权,取其小 者。

5)坚守原则“宁可错过,不可买错”。

只要股市存在,机会就存在,错过了一个机会,下一个机会也许更好。如果买错了,青山都没有了,那还有柴烧?

记住,不要轻听,轻听误事。只相信事实,谁说得天花乱坠,口沫横飞,没有事实作根据,就是废话。

冷眼分享集: 先处战地者逸

孙子曰:“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚),后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。

(白话译文:孙子说:“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸,后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)

孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸” 就是安逸,从容不迫;“劳”就是疲劳,疲于奔命。

甲乙两军对垒,要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场,有足够的时间了解地形,构筑好工事,作好如何迎击,如何歼敌,如何撤退等的准备,而士兵又 有足够的时间休息,养精蓄锐,以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足,他们可以从容不迫地备战,这就是“逸”。

乙军远道而来,一到战场,士兵已精疲力倦,由于马上就要投入战斗,根本没有时间了解战地形势,更不要说策划战略了,这种打法,兵士疲于奔命,这就是 “劳”。


甲军准备充足,以逸待劳,胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师,仓促作战,胜算自然较低。

利润是战利品

股市就是一个战场,买方和卖方,就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利,是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票,此股涨至3令吉,买方赚1令吉,卖方就损 失了1令吉的利润,买方是胜利者。同样的,如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方,股价跌至3令吉,买方亏损2令吉,则卖方是胜利者。

利润,就是买卖两方的战利品,是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。

军事之战和股市之战,其实极为相似,都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸,后处战地而趋战者劳”。

在股市中,绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。

当股市沉静时,他们按兵不动,直到股市狂升,股价大涨时才冲进股市,仓促作战,由于行动仓促,备战工作不足,结果是屡犯错误,搞到损兵折将,铩羽而归。

他们在股市中抢进杀出,终日提心吊胆,生活在炼狱中,这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获,还算值得,但是,如果劳而无功,不但无功,而且满身刀 伤,怎么值得?然而投资者却趋之若鹜,乐此不疲,实在匪夷所思。

其实,只要投资者改弦易辙,采取孙子所说的方法,先处战地以等待敌人的到来,则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人,卤获丰富的战利品,同时又可以过着安逸 的生活。

先处战地而待敌人到来,有两个好处:

1)你有足够的时间,作好战斗的准备。

在股市之战中,你有足够的时间做好功课,考虑更周密,犯错的机会自然减到最低。

减少错误,等于提高胜算。

2)你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。

那么,要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢?

很简单,只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。

所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么,你就给他什么。

有求必应则发

当股市暴跌时,投资者惊慌失措,他们不计成本,在股市中贱价售股,要收回资金;这时候,你就顺应他们的要求,给他金钱,接受他的股票。

当公牛发狂,股价涨到离谱的高峰时,人人进场狂追,他们要的是股票,不要金钱,这时,你就顺应他们的要求,把股票卖给他,接受他的金钱。你这样做,就是有 求必应,有求必应的人,就是好人,好人有好心,好心有好报,你这样做,准会发达。

“有求必应”的做法,其实就是反向。

“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步,这一步可能只是一小步,但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候,金融海啸蹂躏下,股市疮痍满目,如果你在那 时买进股票,等于“先处战地”,今天的战利品大得惊人。

获利时间较长

这种“先处战地”的策略,应用在股票上,效果如响斯应,试举例说明:

1)当经济衰退时,大胆投资,等待经济复苏。

2)在熊市中,“先处战地”,低价买好股,等待公牛回头。

3) 棕油价低沉,买棕油股。

4)钢铁厂生产过剩,钢材大跌,买钢铁股。

5)夹板价到底,开始回升,买夹板股。

6) 受去年金融海啸冲击,一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏,以后不再发生,今年开始恢复盈利,可买。

7)别人看不起的冷门股,价值被严重低估,可买,等待别人发现它们。

这样的例子很多,投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维,应用起来,自然得心应手。

这种策略的缺点,如果也算是缺点的话,就是等待获利的时间较长,例如夹板价格回暖了,但夹板股的盈利,要一年以后才公布,你必须有等待一两年的耐性,才能 得利。

优点是由于买得早,买价常常极低,风险小,利润高。

时间就是金钱,此言不谬。

Thursday, April 22, 2010

全利資源進軍印尼家禽農場

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/33306

(吉隆坡)全利資源(QL,7084,主板消費品組)已獲印尼當局批准設立子公司,以便進 軍該國的綜合家禽農場及相關下游領域。

全利資源發表文告指出,公司獨資子公司-全利實業有限公司於4月19日接獲印尼司法及人權部的 批准,以便設立80%股權公司-PT.全利特里米特拉公司。

上述子公司的繳足資本為150萬美元(約馬幣495萬令吉),而另外20%股權由印尼合作伙伴 擁有。這使這間公司可策略性地擴展業務至印尼市場。

星洲日報/財經‧2010.04.21

这次不懂又要借多少钱。。。
要发达,买全利

Monday, April 19, 2010

不要以为 (转)

http://www.investalks.com/viewthread.php?tid=2603

不要以为
:被我个 人视为投资股市的最高诫命与陷阱!

不要以为 :蓝筹股永远蓝筹股!
不要以为 :以前 RM 50/股,现在 RM 5/股就很便宜!
不要以为 :不要以为马股以前高峰是 1524, 现在 1330 还有 200 点的安全空间!
不要以为 :不要以为马股曾在 1998 年 跌到 200++ 点,800 点就还很高!
不要以为 :股市永远遵守:3年一小起,5 年一大起,10 年一轮回的定律!--很多人认为这是股市的定律!
不要以为 :隔夜美股起,马股就一定起;隔夜美股跌,马股一定跌!
。。。。。。
。。。。。。
。。。。。。
股市:盘盘新局,招招个招!是个武林高手,很少有人年打败它的!

不要以为:不知害 了多少股友,我也曾陷入“不要以为” 这 样的陷阱!

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Topglove Support

April 15, 2010

2010, day 67-71

day 67
3344,今天拿到 top loser No.1 和 No.4, harta + topglove, YEAH !!!!

day 68
3083,今天我又蝉联了第一名 top loser No.1 , topglove -0.60, 掌声鼓励 !!!
这2天手套股损失惨重,年度回筹从 35% 掉到 30.83%

day 69
3078为什么topglove是红的?好遗憾今天拿不到 top loser。

day 70
3014,今天拿到 top loser 第三名 ,success 的 support line 应该在 1.10-1.14,大概大概看的。

day 71
3004,今天拿到 top loser 第三名。卖掉钢门,结果买不回,如意算盘打不响

Supermax revises profit guidance

Published: 2010/04/14

Supermax Corp Bhd is optimistic of a bullish financial performance this year as its expects earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2010 to exceed its earnings guidance for the year.


Executive chairman cum group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai said the company was revising its EPS target from a minimum of 50 sen per share to a minimum of 62 sen per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.

He said the revised profit guidance for the current year took into account latex price fluctuations, foreign exchange and the possibility of a hike in natural gas and electricity tariffs.

Supermax, the world's second largest rubber glove manufacturer, is expected to announce its first-quarter results soon.


It had projected a turnover of over RM1 billion for the current financial year based on current latex prices, the expansion of two new plants and the installation of new production lines.

Thai said the new production lines and the construction of two plants in Meru and Bukit Kapar, Klang, would require an investment of RM130 million.

"The plant in Meru is expected to be fully commissioned by June or July while the plant in the Glove City project in Bukit, Kapar, is expected to be commissioned by 2011," Thai told reporters after International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed's visit to Supermax's factory in Sungai Buloh today.

For the financial year ending Dec 2011 Supermax projected a revenue of RM1.5 billion.

Thai said the rubber glove industry was a resilient industry and would not be affected by price increases nor the strengthening ringgit.

Shares of rubber glove manufacturers were among the major losers yesterday, after rubber prices surged to a 20-month high in Japan while the ringgit strengthened against the US dollar.

Thai said some of the issues affecting the Malaysian rubber industry and Supermax were the non-availability of natural gas supply for new expansion projects, need for consistency in foreign labour policies, lack of advance notice of utilities rate hike, increasing cost of doing business and shortage of quality middle management staff. -- Bernama

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

二哥:Glove Industry (转)

http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2010/04/glove-industry.html

Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.

A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-

1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.

2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.

3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.

4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.

I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.

原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提高價格應對

原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提 高價格應對
大馬財經 2010-04-14 17:50
(吉隆坡)頂級手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組)可通過提高產品價格,克服原料成本上漲和匯率波動的衝擊。

這間公司執行董事林將說:“任何衝擊效應將是短暫的。手套是醫葯保健領域的必需品,比較龐大的醫葯成本來說,手套價格的增加對最終用戶而言是微不足道 的。”

頂級手套是全球最大手套廠商,近期股價受膠價走高和馬幣匯率升值的雙重打擊,股價重挫。

成本漲價轉嫁給顧客

不過,林將源相信,膠價上漲和匯率波動都是短期現象,公司可將衝擊轉嫁到顧客身上。

他針對膠價近期漲至20月新高,馬幣升值迅速,接受《路透社》訪問時說,除了調漲手套售價,這間公司也可以對衝馬幣升值衝擊,就是從泰國尋求膠液,因為當 地膠液是以美元交易。

手套股本週面對龐大賣壓,頂級手套在過去5個交易日下跌了8%,週二(4月13日)重挫60仙至12令吉90仙水平,今日(週三,4月14日)繼續下滑, 一度下跌30仙至12令吉60仙,最後以12令吉80仙作收,下跌10仙。

東京橡膠期貨因為原油漲價和現貨供應緊窄,攀至20個月新高;馬幣今年迄今漲7%,一度來到3.17的23個月新高。由於膠液是手套主要原料,而手套交易 以美元為主,這“雙升”預料威脅手套業者的賺幅。

大馬膠手套供應全球超過60%的膠手套需求,2009年的A流感爆發後,促使市場對膠手套的需求大增。

林將源說,用來生產膠手套的膠液價格,可能在5月下降,目前的供應緊縮情況主要是氣候影響,預料在稍後時會有改善。

不需擔心產量過剩問題

自2月乾旱季節開始後,大馬泰國的橡膠供應已逐漸減少。

林將源也強調,有關膠手套擴充過快,快速建新廠導致產量過剩的隱憂是不確實的。

由於需求急增,導致大馬膠手套公司,包括頂級手套、速伯瑪(SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組)和高產尼品(KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產 品組)等手套公司都積極建新廠以迎合需求,使市場擔心供過於求。

林將源說:“手套供應的增加是逐步進入市場的,一旦有供應過剩的現象出現,廠商會立刻調整擴充計劃,以免影響市場供需平衡。”

星洲日報/財經‧2010.04.14

Top Glove can weather rising costs, ringgit

Top Glove can weather rising costs, ringgit

KUALA LUMPUR, April 14 —Top Glove can overcome the impact of rising raw material costs and foreign exchange fluctuations by raising product prices, said a senior company official.

“Any impact will be short term in nature as the company will pass through the impact to the customers,” said executive director Lim Cheong Guan, referring to the recent sharp rise in rubber prices as well as the fast appreciation of the ringgit currency.

“Gloves are a necessity in the medical industry, any price increase is negligible to the end users compared with the total medical cost,” Lim told Reuters via email.

Malaysian rubber glove makers, including industry leader Top Glove, supply more than 60 per cent of the world’s rubber latex gloves, which have seen a spike in demand following the outbreak of the H1N1 flu in 2009.

Tokyo rubber futures this month hit a 20-month high on the back of strong oil prices and tight physical supply.

The ringgit is up about 7 percent year-to-date, making it the best performing Asian currency. A stronger ringgit will eat into glove makers’ profits as their products are sold in US dollar.

The price of latex, from which gloves are made, will likely come down in May when the current supply squeeze resulting from dry weather conditions eases, said Lim.

Rubber supply in Thailand and Malaysia, the world’s biggest and third-biggest producers respectively, has gradually declined since the dry season began in late February. — Reuters

Glove makers continue to slide

Written by Surin Murugiah
Wednesday, 14 April 2010 00:18

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove manufacturers were among the major losers on April 13, led by TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [] and KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD [], on concerns over raw material costs after rubber prices jumped to a 20-month high in Japan, and the ringgit’s appreciation against the US dollar.

Top Glove lost 60 sen or 4.4% to RM12.90, Kossan fell 35 sen or 4.4% to RM7.56 and SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD [] shed 25 sen or 3.6% to RM6.64. LATEXX PARTNERS BHD [] gave up 22 sen to RM3.77, HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD [] 18 sen to RM7.60 and ADVENTA BHD [] eight sen to RM3.37.

The FBM KLCI slipped 5.09 points or 0.4% to 1,334.52 on April 13.

Analysts were mixed on glove makers’ prospects following the battering.

MIDF Research said the slump on April 13 was a healthy correction and investors should view any weakness in the share prices of the glove counters as an opportunity to accumulate for short-term trading.

It said the companies’ shares rebounded strongly after receding by 11.9% to 14.4% at end-February and early March, adding there was potential upside as the rubber glove makers’ 1Q10 results were expected to be favourable with potential bonus issues looming.

“We are maintaining our trading buy recommendation and all our target prices (TP) for the glove companies under our coverage. Our TP for Top Glove is RM14.68, based on 17 times EPS10, after factoring its net cash of 88 sen per share.

Kossan and Hartalega’s TPs are RM9.04 and RM8.80 respectively, derived from 14 times and 14.5 times PER,” it said in a note released on April 13 afternoon.

The research house said the outlook for the glove sector remained favourable, adding that with the current demand-supply disparity, glove manufacturers were enjoying better cost-passing power.

Top Glove indicated that it was able to pass on up to 90%-100% of the variance in costs to customers, it said.

“Besides, the time lag for glove producers to pass on the additional costs is shorter now compared with roughly two months previously.

“This is manifested by their sustainable strong earnings margin despite higher latex price and weaker US dollar. We believe that earnings margin should be safeguarded in 1H10 given higher plant utilisation rate and better pricing power,” it said.

MIDF Research said excess supply in 2H10 and beyond was its main concern, as the glove companies it had visited were on track with their expansion plans to cater for increasing global demand.

“Although we are positive on the consistent global glove demand growth, we are also concerned about the potential excess glove production capacity, which we believe will affect earnings margin, and hence lower earnings growth moving forward (we still expect positive growth rate).

“We gather from industry players that excess supply is a risk but it only affects a certain segment, namely the low-end products. This is due to the barrier of entry for the higher-value and R&D-focused products,” MIDF said.

The research house added, however, that its concerns might be eased by stronger-than-expected global glove demand and the delay in the expansion plans.

Other risks were valuation issues, as the three glove companies under its coverage were trading at above their respective five-year average PER, it said.

OSK Investment Research senior analyst Jason Yap maintained his overweight recommendation on the glove sector, and reiterated his buy calls on Top Glove, Supermax and Kossan.

He said the fall on April 13 was a correction, with punters taking profit as the share prices had reached high levels.

“The concerns about raw material costs will also dissipate, as latex price is seasonal and should taper down after May. The companies can also pass on the cost to end-buyers.

“We expect absolute figure of bottom line to be retained but margins to gradually decline because of the higher revenue base if glove makers increase prices to take into account raw material prices or currency exchange,” he said.

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research and chief chartist Lee Cheng Hooi said the rubber glove sector was generally already highly priced, as evident from the fluctuation in prices over the past few trading days.

“The stocks in the sector have had quite a lengthy positive run already. We would recommend investors to take profit and step aside for now,” he said.

Lee said the key support level for Top Glove was RM12.25, Supermax RM6.04, Kossan RM7.19 and Hartalega RM7.62. If prices went below these levels it would be critical, he added.

He said Latexx and Adventa were already trading below their key support levels of RM3.83 and RM3.49, respectively.

Last week, AmResearch downgraded the glove sector to underweight. It noted that demand growth had probably peaked and should decelerate going forward, thus shift of pricing power from manufacturers to consumers would accelerate, exacerbated by additional production capacity as early as mid-year.

AmResearch, which had downgraded Top Glove and Kossan to hold with fair values of RM12.50 and RM7.65, respectively, told The Edge Financial Daily on April 13 it was maintaining its recommendation on the sector and target prices for the two stocks.

Monday, April 12, 2010

增幅達頂.賺幅收窄 券商下修手套股評級

增幅達頂.賺幅收窄 , 券商下修手套股評級
April 11, 2010 18:03

(吉隆坡11日訊)橡膠手套需求成長已達頂峰,業者盈利賺幅或收窄,券商下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”(Underweight),頂級手套 (TOPGLOV,7113,主要板工業)和高產柅品(7153,主要板工業)降至“守住”(Hold)。

大馬研究分析報告說,頂級手套截至今年2 月底次季財報已顯示,手套需求趨向正常的跡象。

“據我們查詢,頂級手套交貨截止時間,已從2010財年首季的90天,減至次季的50天。”

報 告透露,在需求正常交易階段,上述兩家公司持續錄得30到40天的交貨期。

“這意味著已達頂峰的手套需求成長未來將趨低,製造業的定價權力 將加速轉移至消費者,今年中落實的額外產能計劃將使這情況惡化。”

報告指出,我國3大手套生產商將在今年底,提高產量多達90億至120億 隻手套,至于額外需求預測介于140億至150億隻,所以消費者未來或越來越不願意接受更高售價。

“乳膠價趨高,令吉兌美元匯報疲軟和能源 成本或變高,提前為業者帶來賺幅壓縮的憂慮。”

大馬研究因而下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”,財測下調后的頂級手套和高產柅品評級降至“守 住”,合理價各減至12.50令吉7.65令吉。

週五閉市時,頂級手套報13.70令吉,揚12仙,成交量64萬7500股;高產柅品收 7.99令吉,,滑14仙,成交量90萬3000股。

Friday, April 9, 2010

2010, day 62-66

day 62:
3468, 机器人 1.27 越套越深,cscstel 动了。QL 很慢,越来越显

day 63:
success closed 1.27 , 大市好像开始要调整了。

day 64:
3542, 卖掉一半 mphb,剩一半。

day 65:
3500, 中钢飞天,早上卖一点 mphb 2.39,last minute 买回 2.34,赚一点。

day 66:
3507, 金刚一天掉一点,现在剩 1.24.

本星期非常沉闷,只有中钢有看头。

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Success Transformer Again !!!

http://www.investalks.com/viewthread.php?tid=1207&extra=&page=52

在我的楼 #1024, #1025,有位不知名的高人留下了精辟的见解。。。

投资大師 彼得.林奇对热门股回避唯恐不及.''如果你找到了一只几乎不曾被机构投资者问津的股票,你就找到了一只有可能赚钱的股票,一般少人问津的冷门优质股,却 最终会成为股价不断上涨的大牛股.''

Success肯定是冷门优质股.是不是黑馬就让时间来证明.最重要是做長期投资.
巴菲特选股首重ROE, 为什么ROE要>15%, 每年成長15%,复利效果就出来了.

Success 2005年net profit RM10,629,000. 每年成長15%, 到2009年net profit应
該有RM18,590.00, 实际上2009年Success的net profit是RM25,709,000.因为Success
5年平均的ROE是18.89%, 复利效果更是显著. ROE增加3.89%,4年的结果相差720万.net
profit 4年相差75%(150%-75%).

Success是龙是虫自己決定, 第一个重要的数据ROE已经说話了,还有更多的数据下次再說.

学习好不好,用分数說話.
公司好不好,用数字說話
.


不是股东大会来決定,不是你我来決定,由财报来決定.

知彼知己 百战不殆,了解Success的优劣势,还有什么好担心的
Success
优势 :
(1) 5 年的ROE,每年皆大於17%,( 平均18.89%)
(2) 5年的Net Profit, 每年都成長. (5年成長150%)
(3) 5年的EPS, 每年都增加 (5年成長134%)
(4) 5年的Net Profit Margin, 每年都大过12% (平均13.37%)
(5) 没有投资机构和股票分析员对success做出分析.
(6) 股价RM1.27, PE才5.9.与ROE的19%不成正比,还有很大上漲空间.
(7) 总负债RM56,152,000.两年多的net profit就可还清.
(8) Malaysia千多支股票, 有优势1,2,3,4的应該没有几家.有
的話請写出来,大家一起研究.

劣势:
(1) Trade and other receivables太高, 占Revenue的31%,
但 5年都保持在29-34%之间, 假帐的可能性很低,
更何况两年的净利就可还清总负债. 如果receivable占Revenue的40%
就要小心了.
(2) dividend 只有3sen(免税),DY为2.36%(3/1.27).

了解了success的优劣势后, 市场的起起落落,何必担心, 要担心
的是不知道自己买的是什么股.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

变形金刚 Success Transformer trade receivable

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.c ... ss-transformer.html



大家都对 success 的 receivable 保持保留的态度 66,493 。
大概做了每年的计算 (receivable / revenue)

2005 = 29%
2006 = 31.4%
2007 = 33.5%
2008 = 28.6%
2009 = 33.5%

5年来的平均数在 29 - 33.5%
做假帐的可能性不大。

借来医师的图
预测 5月尾会公布 3sen dividen,虽然很少,好过没有







Sunday, April 4, 2010

Topglove Again (peng01顶级手套唱好时间)

现在轮到是唱好 topglove 的时间。请看链接。。。#124, #125
http://investalks.com/redirect.php?tid=39&goto=lastpost#lastpost

18 oct 2006 = topglove porpose bonus 2 for 5
07 dec 2006 = topglove hit RM14.00. 参照PE 图,当时 PE 大概 30
(16 april 2010, RM 14.00 的 sell Q,被大户吃光光)
17 jan 2007 = anounce bonus exdate.
27 jan 2007 = 给了 bonus 之后,股价就跌到一去不回头了。
当时的胶价,也是 7 块多,为什么胶价越高,股价越高,PE 越高,当年可以到 30 。

如果历史重演,今年真的有红股,那么要PE=30也有可能,保守一点25
25 X eps 0.80 = RM 20
× 我有买,所以我唱好,你们买了亏钱,当然不关我事
7113 PE.JPG
rubber.JPG

1.JPG

2.JPG

Saturday, April 3, 2010

(转)实例分析 – 找到问题的启点? – 精华版

http://klseblog.com/2010/03/29/%E5%AE%9E%E4%BE%8B%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90-%E6%89%BE%E5%88%B0%E9%97%AE%E9%A2%98%E7%9A%84%E5%90%AF%E7%82%B9-%E7%B2%BE%E5%8D%8E%E7%89%88/

感谢小旺子的分享。


resized_compare

为了不让股友有先入为主的看法,我暂时不揭露这二家上市公司的名字,待分析后才揭开谜底。

二份年报皆以年尾结账,全部以 RM ‘000。

先看Company A,收入只增加区区的 RM42,185,但是应收账务Account Receivable 竟然升了 212%,生意没做大,应收账务却增加二倍,现金反而少了。

大佬,请你帮忙算问题到底出在那里? 应收账务从何方来? 我没去看 Financial Note,但对212% 觉得不可思议。

再来看看应付帐款 Account Payable 更离奇的增加 683%,这回更好玩。到底是不是向供应商买货,怎么存货少了400+% ? 不增反减。是买 software license ??

大佬,再请你帮忙算算这盘账怎么样凑的 ?

还是看 Company B 有啥毛病?

收入与去年差不多,没成长。

但是应收账务少了 43%,哗! 今年不错,收回不少钱。

那要证明这数字有否说骗话,哈! 哈! 现金猛升 284%。看到现金升倍数,别得意忘形,虚报收入常有之事, 查查应收账务减少与这价值差不多,这公司大慨没说慌话。

问题又来了,去年收入大同小异,怎么没增加多现金?欲知现金详情怎样来? 请读 Income Statement & Cash Flow Statement,原来这 Statement 会解释钱从那里来。

读年报要一面读,一面自我发问题,这是窍门。

揭谜底时间,你猜到了吗?
Company A: DIS 科技股 (SC 怀疑账目有问题,停牌解释,现已复牌,)

Announcement 如下:-

The Board of Directors of DIST wishes to announce that pending further investigation, we are gravely concerned that the quarterly reports for the period as stated in the attachment maybe mistated due to an alleged fraud reported by a major customer, Starlight Marketing Limited involving one of their staff as the sales amount involved was RM131,328,496 (detail as per attached) and balance owing to the Group as at 31 December 2009 amounted to RM82,066,290.00 which was very significant to the Company.

RM82,066,290 这数目跟我们分析的应收账务 RM89,273,000相差不远。

Company B: Supermax

Friday, April 2, 2010

2010, day 57 - 61

day 57 - 3427
早盘全面上涨,cscstel high 1.90, success high 1.44,
下午我的counter全部跌回 ,今天做了变形金刚高手 140.
米特啦没有动。

day 58 - 3372
NEM 千呼万唤始出来。。。
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... %20Economic%20Model
今天我 mitra 了,我 G股了,机器人生锈了 。。。
但是我的 topglove 拿到第一名,top gainer !!!!


day 59 - 3240
success T+3 day, drop 1 sen only, close 1.34, 后市看好
mitra, gtronic 跳水,明天应该还会再跌。
topglove 没动,红股机率很大很大很大 !!!


day 60 -
3239
变形金刚套房之路,有各位相伴,不枉此生


day 61 - 3286
刚才我卖 gtronic 1.53,过了 30 秒后,直接起到 1.58 , LOL
打破了一卖就起的记录了
Success 一战 = 入套房 paper loss now -6.55%
Gtronic + mitra 战役 = 亏 140 大元 (贪心的代价)