原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提高價格應對

原料馬幣雙升衝擊賺幅‧頂級手套提 高價格應對
大馬財經 2010-04-14 17:50
（吉隆坡）頂級手套（TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組）可通過提高產品價格，克服原料成本上漲和匯率波動的衝擊。

這間公司執行董事林將說：“任何衝擊效應將是短暫的。手套是醫葯保健領域的必需品，比較龐大的醫葯成本來說，手套價格的增加對最終用戶而言是微不足道 的。”

頂級手套是全球最大手套廠商，近期股價受膠價走高和馬幣匯率升值的雙重打擊，股價重挫。

成本漲價轉嫁給顧客

不過，林將源相信，膠價上漲和匯率波動都是短期現象，公司可將衝擊轉嫁到顧客身上。

他針對膠價近期漲至20月新高，馬幣升值迅速，接受《路透社》訪問時說，除了調漲手套售價，這間公司也可以對衝馬幣升值衝擊，就是從泰國尋求膠液，因為當 地膠液是以美元交易。

手套股本週面對龐大賣壓，頂級手套在過去5個交易日下跌了8%，週二（4月13日）重挫60仙至12令吉90仙水平，今日（週三，4月14日）繼續下滑， 一度下跌30仙至12令吉60仙，最後以12令吉80仙作收，下跌10仙。

東京橡膠期貨因為原油漲價和現貨供應緊窄，攀至20個月新高；馬幣今年迄今漲7%，一度來到3.17的23個月新高。由於膠液是手套主要原料，而手套交易 以美元為主，這“雙升”預料威脅手套業者的賺幅。

大馬膠手套供應全球超過60%的膠手套需求，2009年的Ａ流感爆發後，促使市場對膠手套的需求大增。

林將源說，用來生產膠手套的膠液價格，可能在5月下降，目前的供應緊縮情況主要是氣候影響，預料在稍後時會有改善。

不需擔心產量過剩問題

自2月乾旱季節開始後，大馬泰國的橡膠供應已逐漸減少。

林將源也強調，有關膠手套擴充過快，快速建新廠導致產量過剩的隱憂是不確實的。

由於需求急增，導致大馬膠手套公司，包括頂級手套、速伯瑪（SUPERMX,7106,主板工業產品組）和高產尼品（KOSSAN,7153,主板工業產 品組）等手套公司都積極建新廠以迎合需求，使市場擔心供過於求。

林將源說：“手套供應的增加是逐步進入市場的，一旦有供應過剩的現象出現，廠商會立刻調整擴充計劃，以免影響市場供需平衡。”

星洲日報／財經‧2010.04.14

Top Glove can weather rising costs, ringgit

Top Glove can weather rising costs, ringgit

KUALA LUMPUR, April 14 —Top Glove can overcome the impact of rising raw material costs and foreign exchange fluctuations by raising product prices, said a senior company official.

“Any impact will be short term in nature as the company will pass through the impact to the customers,” said executive director Lim Cheong Guan, referring to the recent sharp rise in rubber prices as well as the fast appreciation of the ringgit currency.

“Gloves are a necessity in the medical industry, any price increase is negligible to the end users compared with the total medical cost,” Lim told Reuters via email.

Malaysian rubber glove makers, including industry leader Top Glove, supply more than 60 per cent of the world’s rubber latex gloves, which have seen a spike in demand following the outbreak of the H1N1 flu in 2009.

Tokyo rubber futures this month hit a 20-month high on the back of strong oil prices and tight physical supply.

The ringgit is up about 7 percent year-to-date, making it the best performing Asian currency. A stronger ringgit will eat into glove makers’ profits as their products are sold in US dollar.

The price of latex, from which gloves are made, will likely come down in May when the current supply squeeze resulting from dry weather conditions eases, said Lim.

Rubber supply in Thailand and Malaysia, the world’s biggest and third-biggest producers respectively, has gradually declined since the dry season began in late February. — Reuters

Glove makers continue to slide

Written by Surin Murugiah

Wednesday, 14 April 2010 00:18

KUALA LUMPUR: Glove manufacturers were among the major losers on April 13, led by TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [] and KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD [], on concerns over raw material costs after rubber prices jumped to a 20-month high in Japan, and the ringgit’s appreciation against the US dollar. Top Glove lost 60 sen or 4.4% to RM12.90, Kossan fell 35 sen or 4.4% to RM7.56 and SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD [] shed 25 sen or 3.6% to RM6.64. LATEXX PARTNERS BHD [] gave up 22 sen to RM3.77, HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD [] 18 sen to RM7.60 and ADVENTA BHD [] eight sen to RM3.37. The FBM KLCI slipped 5.09 points or 0.4% to 1,334.52 on April 13. Analysts were mixed on glove makers’ prospects following the battering. MIDF Research said the slump on April 13 was a healthy correction and investors should view any weakness in the share prices of the glove counters as an opportunity to accumulate for short-term trading. It said the companies’ shares rebounded strongly after receding by 11.9% to 14.4% at end-February and early March, adding there was potential upside as the rubber glove makers’ 1Q10 results were expected to be favourable with potential bonus issues looming. “We are maintaining our trading buy recommendation and all our target prices (TP) for the glove companies under our coverage. Our TP for Top Glove is RM14.68, based on 17 times EPS10, after factoring its net cash of 88 sen per share. Kossan and Hartalega’s TPs are RM9.04 and RM8.80 respectively, derived from 14 times and 14.5 times PER,” it said in a note released on April 13 afternoon. The research house said the outlook for the glove sector remained favourable, adding that with the current demand-supply disparity, glove manufacturers were enjoying better cost-passing power. Top Glove indicated that it was able to pass on up to 90%-100% of the variance in costs to customers, it said. “Besides, the time lag for glove producers to pass on the additional costs is shorter now compared with roughly two months previously. “This is manifested by their sustainable strong earnings margin despite higher latex price and weaker US dollar. We believe that earnings margin should be safeguarded in 1H10 given higher plant utilisation rate and better pricing power,” it said. MIDF Research said excess supply in 2H10 and beyond was its main concern, as the glove companies it had visited were on track with their expansion plans to cater for increasing global demand. “Although we are positive on the consistent global glove demand growth, we are also concerned about the potential excess glove production capacity, which we believe will affect earnings margin, and hence lower earnings growth moving forward (we still expect positive growth rate). “We gather from industry players that excess supply is a risk but it only affects a certain segment, namely the low-end products. This is due to the barrier of entry for the higher-value and R&D-focused products,” MIDF said. The research house added, however, that its concerns might be eased by stronger-than-expected global glove demand and the delay in the expansion plans. Other risks were valuation issues, as the three glove companies under its coverage were trading at above their respective five-year average PER, it said. OSK Investment Research senior analyst Jason Yap maintained his overweight recommendation on the glove sector, and reiterated his buy calls on Top Glove, Supermax and Kossan. He said the fall on April 13 was a correction, with punters taking profit as the share prices had reached high levels. “The concerns about raw material costs will also dissipate, as latex price is seasonal and should taper down after May. The companies can also pass on the cost to end-buyers. “We expect absolute figure of bottom line to be retained but margins to gradually decline because of the higher revenue base if glove makers increase prices to take into account raw material prices or currency exchange,” he said. Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research and chief chartist Lee Cheng Hooi said the rubber glove sector was generally already highly priced, as evident from the fluctuation in prices over the past few trading days. “The stocks in the sector have had quite a lengthy positive run already. We would recommend investors to take profit and step aside for now,” he said. Lee said the key support level for Top Glove was RM12.25, Supermax RM6.04, Kossan RM7.19 and Hartalega RM7.62. If prices went below these levels it would be critical, he added. He said Latexx and Adventa were already trading below their key support levels of RM3.83 and RM3.49, respectively. Last week, AmResearch downgraded the glove sector to underweight. It noted that demand growth had probably peaked and should decelerate going forward, thus shift of pricing power from manufacturers to consumers would accelerate, exacerbated by additional production capacity as early as mid-year. AmResearch, which had downgraded Top Glove and Kossan to hold with fair values of RM12.50 and RM7.65, respectively, told The Edge Financial Daily on April 13 it was maintaining its recommendation on the sector and target prices for the two stocks.

增幅達頂．賺幅收窄 券商下修手套股評級

增幅達頂．賺幅收窄 , 券商下修手套股評級
April 11, 2010 18:03

（吉隆坡11日訊）橡膠手套需求成長已達頂峰，業者盈利賺幅或收窄，券商下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”（Underweight），頂級手套 （TOPGLOV，7113，主要板工業）和高產柅品（7153，主要板工業）降至“守住”（Hold）。

大馬研究分析報告說，頂級手套截至今年2 月底次季財報已顯示，手套需求趨向正常的跡象。

“據我們查詢，頂級手套交貨截止時間，已從2010財年首季的90天，減至次季的50天。”

報 告透露，在需求正常交易階段，上述兩家公司持續錄得30到40天的交貨期。

“這意味著已達頂峰的手套需求成長未來將趨低，製造業的定價權力 將加速轉移至消費者，今年中落實的額外產能計劃將使這情況惡化。”

報告指出，我國3大手套生產商將在今年底，提高產量多達90億至120億 隻手套，至于額外需求預測介于140億至150億隻，所以消費者未來或越來越不願意接受更高售價。

“乳膠價趨高，令吉兌美元匯報疲軟和能源 成本或變高，提前為業者帶來賺幅壓縮的憂慮。”

大馬研究因而下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”，財測下調后的頂級手套和高產柅品評級降至“守 住”，合理價各減至12.50令吉7.65令吉。

週五閉市時，頂級手套報13.70令吉，揚12仙，成交量64萬7500股；高產柅品收 7.99令吉，，滑14仙，成交量90萬3000股。

2010, day 62-66

day 62:
3468, 机器人 1.27 越套越深，cscstel 动了。QL 很慢，越来越显

day 63:
success closed 1.27 , 大市好像开始要调整了。

day 64:
3542, 卖掉一半 mphb，剩一半。

day 65:
3500, 中钢飞天，早上卖一点 mphb 2.39，last minute 买回 2.34，赚一点。

day 66:
3507, 金刚一天掉一点，现在剩 1.24.

本星期非常沉闷，只有中钢有看头。