二哥：Glove Industry （转）

http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2010/04/glove-industry.html

Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.

A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-

1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.

2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.

3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.

4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.

I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.

长期投资

http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2009/09/blog-post_9559.html
http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2009/09/blog-post_03.html

之前我说长期投资不一定等于长期持有，那长期投资又何解呢？

比方说，一个投资者的策略是在别人 huha huha 的时候减持股票的投资，在股市调整时增加股票的投资 （看之前一帖）。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

再说，如果一个投资者的策略是专买一些高确定性 （high certainty or high probality）的股票，然后在股价升到＂合理价＂后卖。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

再说，如果一个投资者的策略是购买某一间公司的成长期（part of the business life），然后在它的成长期后卖。如果他是长期的在这样做，那他是不是在实行长期投资呢？

如果一个投资者的策略是长期持有＂一流的公司＂，这也是长期投资。

我的看法是，以上说的都是长期投资的策略，不单单是长期持有。因为你长期持有的结果有可能就是长期持有某些＂二三流的股票＂，而不是长期投资。根据 ben graham，投资的定义是＂保本＂和合理的回酬。


长期投资 = buy ＆ hold （长期持有）？？

很多人都以为长期投资就是等于长期持有，长期持有就是等于长期投资。讲讲两下就搬 出 warren buffett 的投资例子，什么 cocacola，geico，wells fargo 等等。你若再问为什么 warren buffett 会买这些公司，他们就说是这些公司拥有 economic franchise，有的是拥有品牌啦，有的是 low cost producer 啦....等等。你若再问下去，那你就得不到答案了。难道就只是这些原因使到 warren buffett 长期持有这些公司？

试问以上有那些公司是没有历经所谓的危机，风暴的历史？那一些没有历经悠长的时间考验？而且危机后还可以持续成长？

试问 bursa malaysia 有几多间公司符合这些条件？？

还有就是当我们学那些投资大师的学说时，不要单单看表面，应该更上一层的想和问。