Sunday, October 31, 2010




腾讯科技讯(中涛)北京时间10月29日消息,美国科技博客 网站Silicon Alley Insider(SAI)周四刊文称,苹果周三向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交了10K文件(即年度业绩报告),从该文件中所披露的信息可看出,苹果 确实是一家“令人感到畏惧”的公司。

在对苹果10K文件内容进行分析后,SAI总结 了苹果2010财年(截至今年9月25日)的“15件事实”,其中包括苹果去年营收额增长220亿美元、年营收额超过微软、iPhone业务占据苹果总收 入39%以及iPhone手机每日销量达11万部等等。

以下为 SAI所总结苹果15件事实:

1、去年苹果营收额增长220亿美 元。仅增长的这部分营收额,已超出大量知名科技公司的年度销售收入。不仅如此,这部分增长的营收额,也高于苹果四年前的整体营收。

2、苹果去年营收额为650亿美元。如果以GDP(国内生产总值)为标准,则苹果已超过伊拉克、克 罗地亚、利比亚、厄瓜多尔及其他100多个国家。

3、苹果去年650亿美元的营收额 已超过微软(620亿美元)。

4、苹果去年欧洲市场营收额增长70亿美元,已高于欧 洲列支敦士登的GDP产值。

5、去年iPhone智能手机业务已占据苹果总营收的 39%,而iPhone手机四年前尚未存在。

6、苹果去年共售出4000万部 iPhone手机,相当于每天出售11万部,每小时出售4583部,每分钟出售76部,每秒钟出售1.27部。目前iPhone已在全球89个国家和地区 销售。

7、苹果网络音乐商店iTunes去年销售额迅猛增至40亿美元。而全球四 大唱片公司之一华纳音乐集团年营收额为30亿美元,比苹果iTunes业务少10亿美元。

8、去年苹果零售店销售额为98亿美元,超过塞克斯(Saks)、Barnes & Noble、Ann Taylor、蒂凡尼(Tiffany)等零售商店,但仍不及美国电子零售商百思买(Best Buy,年销售额为500亿美元)。


10、苹果去年新开通44家零售店,零售店总量增至317家。平均每家零售店年销售额为3400 万美元,2009财年的相应平均值为2600万美元。

11、如果将一年365天全部 计算在内,苹果每家零售店日均销售额93150美元,相当于每分钟营收额为65美元。

12、 苹果零售店全职员工量为2.65万名,平均每家零售店员工量为84名,每位此类员工年均销售额为37万美元。

13、在苹果去年650亿美元营收中,约450亿美元来自该公司过去10年内所推出新产品和服务, 其中包括iPod音乐播放器、iPhone手机、iPad平板电脑和iTunes音乐商店等;其中近半收入(300亿美元)来自苹果过去4年内所推出产品 和服务。

14、去年苹果研发资金投入仅为17亿美元,而营收额不及苹果的微软则投入 87亿美元研发资金。

15、去年苹果用于销售、市场营销和普通管理的开支仅为55亿 美元,而微软相应开支高达170亿美元。

此外,SAI还总结出苹果 以下4项事实:

1、在苹果去年所销售4000万部iPhone手 机中,平均每部售价为625美元。

2、苹果iPod音乐播放器平均售价为164美 元。

3、苹果Mac机平均售价为1279美元。去年苹果Mac机销量为1370万 部,其中Mac笔记本销量为 900万部,平均每部售价为1206美元;Mac台式机销量为460万台,平均每台售价为1340美元。

4、苹果iPad平板电脑平均售价为665美元。该产品过去9个月销量为750万部,相当于每月销 量为83.3万部,每天2.7万部,每小时1157部,每分钟19部。

Friday, October 29, 2010

Icap 5 years after listing

If you made an investment 5 years ago, after going through a global financial crisis, how much is the worth now?

It has been exactly 5 years since was listed in Bursa on 19 October 2005.
Let’s see how Icapital has fared thus far versus KLCI and unit trust funds for the past 5 years:

Average Annual Compounded Return of Icapital NAV: 19.87%
Average Annual Compounded Return of Icapital share price: 14.98%
Average Annual Compounded Return of KLCI: 10.16%
Average Annual Compounded Return of similar unit trust funds (%): 11.49

(Hmmmm.... Fixed Deposit is "safe"... But what is the return compared to equities even after global financial crisis?)


NAV of on 18 October 2005: RM 0.99
NAV of on 13 October 2010: RM 2.45
Total gain in NAV (%): 147.47
Average Annual Compounded Return: 19.87%

Share price of on 18 October 2005: RM 1.00
Share price of on 13 October 2010: RM 2.01
Total gain in NAV (%): 101.00
Average Annual Compounded Return: 14.98%

KLCI as of 18 October 2005: 922.64
KLCI as of 13 October 2010: 1496.97
Total gain in KLCI (%): 62.25
Average Annual Compounded Return: 10.16%

While KLCI is still a few percents away from her all time peak, Icapital has been breaking few NAV all time high records since last few weeks.

At this moment, is the only closed-end fund listed in Bursa. So comparison is made to other open-end unit trust funds that are considered relevant.

Comparison is made with 112 funds that are at least 5 years old of which their performances were published in The Edge, the Normandy fund table “performance of unit trusts in Malaysia as at October 14, 2010”. Categories selected include: Malaysia Equity, Malaysia Equity-Index, Malaysia Equity-Smallcap, Malaysia Flexible Asset Allocation, Malaysia Mixed Assets.

Average 5 year total gain of these unit trust funds(%): 72.23
Average Annual Compounded Return of these unit trust funds (%): 11.49

Based on the return on the Icapital share price vs 5 year performance of these fund, Icapital was ranked #21/113.

But if we are to gauge based on fund’s NAV, Icapital was ranked #5/113.

Despite Icapital consistently outperformed the benchmark composite index by a wide margin, the share price of Icapital which had been trading at premium previously, has been traded at discount to her NAV since the selldown of equities during recent global financial crisis and it is now trading at about 18% discount to her NAV.

Against open-ended fund, liquidity is a slight disadvantage to closed-end fund. Investors may also have concerns that the fund is relying too much on Tan Teng Boo alone.

But with the consistency and outstanding track record of the fund and lower transaction fee against most of the open-end unit trusts, I think the discount of such magnitude could be too excessive. If the fund is able to maintain this kind of stellar performance, investors of Icapital could benefit not only from the superior performance of the fund over long term but also narrowing of the discount to NAV or even being traded at premium one day to reflect her true worth, like what happened to some of the undervalued stocks in Bursa with the run-up in BKAWAN’s share price being the latest instance.

Shouldn’t investors consider alternative such as if they plan to invest in unit trust funds or exchange traded funds?

FRS 139 对公司财报的影响

According FRS 139, investment in shares can be classified as either:

1. Held for trading securities (“HFT”); or
2. Available for sale financial assets (“AFS”).

Investments HFT are acquired principally for the purposes of selling in the near term or to take advantage of fluctuation in price. They are short term investments in shares / bonds.

If the share investment is not HFT, then it is AFS. Example of AFS investments is long term investments in shares.

Why is it important to determine the classification of the investments?

Both HFT and AFS investments are measured at fair value (or current market value).

But if it is HFT, the changes in market value will be recognised in P&L;

whereas for AFS investments, the changes in market value will NOT be recognised in P&L, it goes to Equity in Balance Sheet.

See, this is the difference – one impacts P&L and the other will not; but both will have the same impact on the Net Assets.

Friday, October 22, 2010

FRS140 对公司财报的影响

以下取自 Hunza properties berhad 2010-3Q 季报。

The amendment that has material impact is FRS 140, Investment Property.
Following the amendments to FRS 140,
the property under construction or development for future use as investment property is now accounted for as “investment property”,
as compared to “property, plant and equipment, construction-in-progress”, previously.

See Notes A10 and A11.

A10. Valuations of Property, Plant & Equipment

The value of land and buildings, stated at 2010 valuation, has been brought forward after a revaluation exercise carried out on 21 May 2010 by an independent firm of professional valuers using “open market value with existing use” basis. This was in line with our policy that freehold office units and apartments and buildings (held for own use) stated at valuation are revalued at regular intervals of at least once in every five years.

Upon adoption of “Improvements to FRS 140, Investment Property”, the property under construction or development for future use as investment property is now accounted for as Investment Property (refer A2). Hence, Gurney Paragon mall and office, which are under construction and another piece of land were transferred from previous classification of Property, Plant & Equipment to Investment Property during the current period.

A11. Valuations of Investment Properties
The value of such lands are based upon a valuation exercise carried out on 20 January 2010 and 21 May 2010 by independent firms of professional valuers and/or directors. The valuations were arrived at by reference to market evidence of transaction prices for similar properties. This was in line with our policy upon adoption of FRS 140, that investment properties are revalued at regular intervals of at least once every year. Gain on revaluation of the lands that were transferred out from Property, Plant & Equipment (refer A10 above) amounting to RM22.7 million was recognised in current period.

(Update) Tenaga 国能马前炮之说 !!!

Q4 财报今天出来了 28 oct 2010

根据 2010 第三季财报: 净利 = 2808 mil (28亿)(eps 64.83仙) 2808 扣掉 668.1外汇赚益 (foreign translation gain) = 2140 mil (21.4 亿)

2140 mil (21.4 亿) = 9 个月的核心净利(core profit)

Foreign exchange gain by quater
Q1 = -45.4 mil
Q2 = 144 mil
Q3 = 569 mil
Q4 = -40 mil
Core Profit by quater
Q1 = 742.9 mil
Q2 = 857.1 mil
Q3 = 540.2 mil
Q4 = 600 mil (取最低)
2010 core profit = 2740 mil (大约27亿,符合专家预测)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
net profit (mil) 2162 4067 2600 853 3197
core profit (mil) 1837 3582 2566 2092 2564
eps (sen) 50.44 93 59.84 21.15 73.4
dividen(sen) 14 36.3 20 16.3
2010 dividend 26sen



2010-10-21 18:30

(吉隆坡21日訊)預算案標示全國大選或提前舉行,國家能源(TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組)電費上調美夢料再度破滅,令高成本和財務壓力無處宣泄,分析員認為,私有化國能不失為一個“長遠解決”方案,但根據分析,私有化國能涉額高達 442億令吉,難度比南北大道(PLUS, 5052, 主板貿服組)私有化來得高,是最大阻力。

電費調漲涉及全民,影響力比大道大,在成本壓力下,國能一直喊漲價,但擔心民怨,政府一直壓制 漲勢,分析員從政府私有化南北大道個案,提出一個一勞永逸的解決方案:私有化國能。

黃氏唯高達研究說:“從最好情況來看,我們認為政府可能透過私有化國能,或讓其上調電費和成本 轉嫁機制來解決目前的僵局,而最壞的情況則是電費調整和成本轉嫁機制毫無進展。”


不過,黃氏唯高達也提出,私有化國能,政府必須出價至少每股10令吉15仙,或總值442億令 吉,這是解決國能問題最樂觀的情況,只是國能股本龐大,私有化涉額太高,是南北大道私有化的一倍,可能性不大。

上調電費和成本轉嫁機制,則為國能創造融資新煤炭發電廠所需的自由現金流增長,但礙於國能龐大 市值和提前大選跡象,政府不可能在近期上調電費或進行私有化活動,反而可能透過些微上調電費1%至2%,或獨立發電廠協議洽商等動作,協助國能解決長期財 務問題。

黃氏唯高達表示,政府在2011年財政預算案宣佈南北大道旗下4條收費大道5年不漲價,同時讓 政府相關企業的UEM集團與公積金局聯手以每股4令吉60仙,或230億令吉代價將南北大道私有化獻議。

“如此親民的動作引發市場對提前大選的預期,但對引頸長盼電費上調,來舒緩煤炭價格攀升和宜麥 發電廠產能增加付款壓力的國能絕非好事,可能拖累公司2011和2012財政年盈利表現。”


以南北大道近期重組,以及國庫控股脫售大馬郵政(POS, 4634, 主板貿服組)和發馬(PHARMA, 7081, 主板貿服組)股權活動來看,相信國能可能是政府相關公司企業重組的下一個受惠者。

黃氏唯高達研究認為,國庫和公積金局早前計劃脫售國能15%股權可能拖慢電費上調步伐,以為雙 方各36%和15%持股覓得更好價格,但隨著煤炭成本高企和成本轉嫁機制不明朗令人感到憂慮,預期國能重組計劃可能儘快展開。

目前,煤炭成本佔國能燃料組合的33%,而比重料隨2014年半島2千兆瓦煤炭發電廠投產日益 增加,加上國家石油可能削減天然氣供應,和限制半島發電領域天然氣津貼供應,都令煤炭變得日趨重要。

黃氏唯高達認為,根據鎖定期貨成本,國能2010財政年平均煤炭成本為每公噸90美元,但過去 2個月5千500卡煤炭平均價已上漲5%至95.5美元,預計煤炭成本每成長1%,國能2011財政年淨利將下滑5.7%。


國能股價在今年為止落後指數10.4%,主要受電費延宕上調影響,預期國能股價將在未來數月從 後趕上,以反映強勁馬幣和電力需求持續成長可能催化2010財政年表現利好。


“國能截至今年5月30日止總債務達216億令吉,其中48億令吉或22%由美元主導,另 24%為日圓主導,因此馬幣兌美元和日圓今年為止分別升值9.5%和3.7%,將有利於貸款利息和債務償還額度的減少。”

此外,國能也利用美元採購煤炭,2010財政年所需煤炭料達800萬公噸,以每公噸95美元計 算,總成本可能上抵24億令吉,預計馬幣兌美元每升值1%將提高國能2011財政年淨利2.4%。


與此同時,受惠於強勁經濟成長,國能今年為止電力需求增長10%,高於全年經濟成長目標的 8%,預期國能將持續從工業和商業強勁電力需求獲利。

黃氏唯高達認為,國能是落後大市的大資本股,預期股價在市場流動性改善下將從後趕上,潛在催化 因素為政府展開重組活動,解決高燃料成本和資本開銷憂慮,維持‘買進’平級。


外匯虧損或4000萬 券商建議售國能

(吉隆坡22日訊)國家能源(TENAGA,5347,主要板貿易)28日將宣佈第四季業績,券商預計,公司或面對4000萬令吉外匯虧損,建議投資者 “售出”。


馬銀行投銀在報告中 透露,國能分別擁有15億美元(約46.64億令吉)和1430億日圓(約54.9億令吉)外債。

“隨著日圓兌美元走強,預計公司外匯損失 達4000萬令吉。

另外,政府陸續提出補貼合理化和電力收購(feed-in tariffs)等計劃,對國能一直以來欲修改電費方程式的意願不利。

分析師指出,國能在種種措施下“打回原形”,電費成本將繼續受煤炭價 格波動影響。

他補充,政府在預算案中指出,將繼續在麵粉、燃油和液化石油氣(LPG)削減12億令吉補貼,達到237億令吉水平;這其中並 不包括能源收費。


鑑 于上述種種因素,馬銀行投銀維持“售出”評級,目標價格7.50令吉。

國能今早開市股價走勢佳,揚3仙至8.88令吉;惟好景不常,股價在 短時間內下跌,休市時跌5仙至8.8令吉。


Types of Bonds

Understand Definitions to Confidently Invest in Bonds

Jul 17, 2009 Miranda Miller

Types of Bonds - Ian Britton
Types of Bonds - Ian Britton
Bonds are loans made to companies to help raise capital for operations and growth. Investors receive a bond certificate outlining the terms of the investment.

Investors can choose between several different types of bonds, varying in terms, levels of risk, features and drawbacks. Investors should have a working knowledge of each of the different types of investment products they purchase, even when using the services of a professional money manager. Learn the key differences between the different types of bonds below.

Term Bonds vs. Serial Bonds

Term bonds refers to a group of bonds issued together, all with the same maturity date. For example, $500,000 in bonds with a ten year term must all be fully paid ten years from the date they were issued. Serial bonds mature on a series of dates. The same $500,000 in bonds, in this case, could mature $100,000 at a time after year five, with the final $100,000 maturing in year ten.

Convertible vs. Callable Bonds

Convertible bonds may be exchanged for a fixed amount of company shares. The investor could take advantage of future increases in stock value by converting bonds to shares.

Callable bonds, also known as redeemable bonds, can be retired prior to maturity for a dollar amount set at the time of purchase. Although redeemable and callable bonds are similar, there is one key difference. Callable bonds may be retired by the issuing company, while the bondholder makes the decision to retire a redeemable bond.

Unsecured vs. Secured Bonds

Secured bonds offer investor protection by ensuring that company property or assets are held as collateral in case of default. If the issuing company fails to pay interest or par value, the company must sell secured assets to fund payments to the bondholders. Unsecured bonds are also known as debentures. In this case, the bonds are issued based on the company's performance and credit rating. Other bonds, such as Canada Savings Bonds, are secured by the government.

Registered Vs. Bearer Bonds

Registered bonds are issued to an owner and list a specific name and address. The owner of the bond is presumed to be the person listed as the registered owner.

Bearer bonds are not registered to a specific group or individual and are largely untraceable. The person holding the bond certificate is the rightful owner, making it difficult to recover lost or stolen bearer bonds. For this reason, bearer bonds are not as popular as they once were.

Confidently Invest in Bonds with Knowledge of Terms and Procedures

Brush up on financial knowledge before moving ahead to buy investments. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) Investing in Bonds website is an excellent resource and learning tool for investors of all types and levels.

Learn to recognize whether the bond in question is secured or unsecured, callable or convertible, or a term or serial bond. Even basic financial knowledge aids investors in making smart decisions, with or without the services of a professional money manager.

For more information on mortgage-backed securities and other long-term investments, see Fixed Income Investments.

Read more at Suite101: Types of Bonds: Understand Definitions to Confidently Invest in Bonds

Thursday, October 21, 2010

冷眼分享集: 要赚多少巴仙才卖?

2010/10/09 10:29:31 AM
●冯时能 股票研究人













例如在去年第一季当金融海啸最严重的时候,股市中到处是“低垂的果实”(Low hanging fruits),随手都可以采到又肥又大的熟果,而那时也的确有不少人以低得令人难以置信的低价,买到高素质的股票。


大多数投资者在股价稍微回升,取得一、二十巴仙的盈利之后,就迫不及待的把股票卖掉,眼巴巴的看着同一只股票,上升了二、三百巴仙,使他失去了一次黄金般 的赚钱机会。

这类投资者所犯的错误是:像金融海啸这样的投资机会也许十年才出现一次,如果你错过了,也许要过十年才有在一、两年之内赚取二、三百巴仙盈利的机会,这不 是很可惜吗?






但是,在短期内你不大可能看出。在你的组合中(也许由一、二十只股票组成),那一只股票会有“超常”的表现。所以,稍有盈利就迫不及待的套利,极有可能所 卖的就是会生金蛋的天鹅。


所以,有“利”就“套”或是设定一个目的,例如,有三十巴仙的盈利就脱售,绝非明智的投资法。那么,是不是要等到取得惊人的暴利才该卖?我们知道,没有永 远上升的股票。当股价涨至某个阶段时,大部分的股票价值已被极度高估,已不值得投资下去,再收藏下以,已没有意义了。如果你再不卖,你不算是个精明的投资 者。







一只股票到底是便宜还是昂贵?价值是被低估还是高估?单看股价是无法判断的,你必须将股价与基本面挂钩才能判定股价是过高或过低——过高该卖;过低不可 卖。



最基本的标准是本益比(Per)。本益比就是多少年赚回本金(投资额),例如以1令吉买进一只股票,1令吉就是你的本金。如果此股每年每股净赚20仙,那 么RM1.00 ÷ RM0.20 = 5,这5就是本益比,也就是说五年可以赚回1令吉的本金。








在这一轮的牛市中,手套股的表现超越大市,许多投资者由于卖得太早,失去了赚取厚利的机会,就是因为他们忘记了手套股的股价上升了数倍,但每股净利也上升 了数倍。



至于手套股将来的表现如何?其实是决定于个别公司的盈利表现(每股净利),与其去猜测股价起落,倒不如多花精神研究其前景,从基本面而不是从股价去找答 案,那才是更实际的投资法。







Monday, October 18, 2010


2010-10-18 09:05

其 實,這是一個不錯的預算案。



如果你是女性公務 員,你可以享受90天的產假。


如果你是印尼勞工, 你也有機會參與100層摩天樓,以及各種超級計劃。


你和多數人一樣, 只是中等收入的受薪階級,或是一個奔波忙碌,




大道5年內不漲 價,替你省下未來的部份費用。不過,對不起,政府不能買下大道,給你免費通行。


即使呆在家裡,只 要打開收費電視,也躲不了這6%。


國外許多政府,都是通過減稅來減輕中等收入人民的負擔,以及刺激企業的活 力。

不 過,個人所得稅和公司稅都是堅守陣地,人民得共赴時艱,多盡國民義務。

首次購屋的印花稅降低,可以省下二、三千令吉;但是,巴生河流域地區的屋 價,隨便都漲了幾萬。



但是,預算案的內 容,比過去更高(50億令吉100層摩天樓)、更大(100億令吉雙溪毛糯發展計劃、


人們還以為,政府要 縮小;但是,和預算案一樣,政府好像是膨脹了。


2011年財政預算 案,應該是轉型的起點,政府要把錢用在刀口上,每一令吉都要發揮價值。


生產力不會出現在鄉 村委員會和宗教師的津貼上,競爭力不是反映在100層高的摩天樓之中。


作為第十大馬計劃的 開始,明年的預算案應該投資在提高教育素質,振興企業,以及加強外資的信心。

但是,總是有好消息,譬如,酒類沒有漲價;暫時拋開煩惱,大家舉起酒杯,飲 勝。

咱們中等收入 的人民都不如印尼勞工,大家有酒今朝醉吧。飲勝!

Friday, October 15, 2010

Tenaga TNB – A decent 4QFY10 expected Outperform

Results Preview

- TNB is expected to release its 4QFY10 results on 28 Oct. Based on the CEO’s recent comment that FY10 electricity demand growth could range between 8-9% yoy, we estimate 4Q core net profit could come in at around RM600-650m (3Q10 core net profit: RM534m; 4Q09: RM407m).

- This would bring full-year core net profit to around 93-94.5% of our full-year net profit forecast and around 94-96% of consensus estimates. We believe the key variance would largely be due to electricity unit sales, where we had assumed FY10 demand growth of +10% yoy.

- We estimate 4QFY10 electricity unit sales for Pen. Malaysia slowed to around +5.5% yoy and +2% qoq, vs.
+13.7% yoy and +3.7% qoq in 3QFY10. This slowdown, we believe, would largely be due to the industrial segment. Overall, we expect 4Q10 topline to post qoq and yoy growth of 1.5-2% and 5-5.5% respectively.

- 4Q operating cost is expected to remain stable qoq and yoy, notwithstanding higher US$-denominated coal cost, which would be mitigated by a stronger RM as well as the absence of lumpy provisioning.

- We expect TNB to declare a final gross DPS of 21 sen (4QFY09: gross DPS of 13.1 sen), which would bring the full-year gross DPS to 27 sen (FY09: 17.8 sen).

- FY10-12 net profit projections lowered by 3.9-4.5% after we lowered our FY10 electricity demand growt has sumption to +8.5% (+10% previously). FY11 and FY12 assumptions of +4.5% p.a. are unchanged.

- Fair value lowered to RM10.30 from RM10.80, based on unchanged target CY11 PER of 13x but Outperform call on the stock is unchanged.

EPF, Khazanah to buy out PLUS in RM23b deal

October 15, 2010

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 15 — Two state linked funds will buy out highway operator PLUS Expressways for at least RM23 billion, the largest deal in Malaysia so far.

A source with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters the deal will be sealed at between RM4.60 to RM4.80 a share. In today's edition, The Edge Financial initially quoted their own sources saying that the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and state investment arm Khazanah Nasional will form a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to take over the assets and liabilities of PLUS at RM4.60 per share.

EPF already owns a 12.3 per cent stake and Khazanah holds 55.2 per cent of the firm that operates the lucrative North-South highway running from the northwestern tip of Malaysia to Singapore.

PLUS Expressways has been the subject of privatisation talk and such a move would follow a decision in July by Malaysian billionaire Ananda Krishnan to take oil and gas firm Tanjong Offshore private.

The Edge said the SPV will restructure the toll operator’s debt to match its cash flow. In the 2009 financial year ending Dec 31, net operating cash flow stood at 2 billion ringgit and long term debt at RM8 billion.

“Its cash flow is enough for PLUS to undertake more borrowings. And EPF is in need of long-term debt papers,” the Edge quoted one of the sources as saying.

Officials from EPF, Khazanah and PLUS were not immediately available for comment.

Shares in PLUS were suspended for two days yesterda pending an announcement from a shareholder.

PLUS shares have jumped about 37 percent so far this year, closing on Oct. 13 at 4.46 ringgit.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is expected to make some mention of the deal when he presents the country’s budget later today, according to local media reports.


Analysts were divided about the implications of a possible deal.

“EPF taking over PLUS would make it easier for Malaysian citizens to accept toll hikes,” said OSK analyst Jeremy Goh.

Others were less bullish saying the privatisation of PLUS would reduce liquidity and diversity in a market that has been struggling to lure in foreign investors.

“The key thing is that investors will have to look for alternative yield plays,” UOB Kay Hian Head of Research Vincent Khoo said.

“Bear in mind that this has not been the only privatisation this year. The privatisation of Tanjong also created the same issue. Second liner yield plays, such as KLCC could benefit.”

But the volume removed from the bourse will be replaced by the upcoming IPOs of two Petronas subsidiaries, Malaysia Marine and Petronas Chemicals, analysts said.

Thomson I/B/E/S estimates PLUS to earn RM1.27 billion in the 2010 financial year and to return 0.19 ringgit a share in the form of dividends to shareholders.

PLUS is on track to meet the net profit estimate after posting a net profit of RM618.7 million for the six months ended June 30. It declared total dividends of RM0.075 per share for the same time period. — Reuters

Thursday, October 14, 2010



1.人生是不公平的,習慣去接受它 吧!


3. 你不會一離開學校就有百萬年薪,你不會馬上就是擁有行動電話的副總裁,二者你都必須靠努力賺來。

4.如果你覺得你的老師很 兇,等你有了老闆就知道了,老闆是沒有工作任期保障的。

5.在速食店煎漢堡並不是作賤自己,你的祖父母對煎漢堡有完全不同 的定義:機會。


7. 在你出生前,你的父母並不像現在這般無趣,他們變成這樣是因為忙著付你的開銷,洗你的衣服,聽你吹噓自己有多了不起。所以在你拯救被父母這代人破壞的熱帶 雨林前,先整理一下自己的房間吧!

8.在學校裡可能有贏家和輸家,在人生中卻還言之過早。學校可能會不斷給你機會找到正確 答案,真實人生中卻完全不是這麼回事。

9.人生不是學期制,人生沒有寒暑假,沒有哪個雇主有興趣協助你找尋自我,請用自己 的空暇做這件事吧!


11. 對書呆子好一點,你未來很可能就為其中一個工作。


Malaysia defers implementation of GST

The finance minister does not provide any new date but maintains that the GST is still important in ensuring a strong and sustainable fiscal position for Malaysia's long-term growth.

The government has postponed the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) to provide more breathing space for Malaysians.

The Ministry of Finance (MOF), in a brief statement yesterday, said the decision was to allow for a more inclusive engagement with "all segments of rakyat pertaining to the GST".

Economists contacted were not surprised with the decision as they had expected the unpopular tax to take several years to implement.

The MOF did not provide any new date but maintained that the GST is still important in ensuring a strong and sustainable fiscal position to support the country's long-term economic growth.

"The government will take into account the interest and welfare of the society to ensure the implementation of GST is well received," it noted.

The GST Bill, which was tabled for its first reading in Parliament in December last year, was originally planned to be implemented by 2011 to replace the existing services and sales tax.

Based on a proposed rate of 4 per cent (as opposed to the sales and service tax's rate of between 5 and 10 per cent), its implementation was projected to generate an additional RM1 billion of revenue annually.

RAM Holdings group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the postponement meant that there is more flexibility to delay balancing the government books.

"As long as the government is able to reduce the fiscal deficit and ensure it is on a declining trend, then it will be in a position to forestall the implementation of GSTn ... if the government can firm up the implementation by 2012, some announcement can be made next year," Yeah added.

The government has targeted to reduce the fiscal deficit to the gross domestic product to 5.6 per cent this year from 7.4 per cent in 2009.

Under the 10th Malaysia Plan, the target is to cut the fiscal deficit further to 2.8 per cent by 2015.

Yeah said the government can look to other sources to boost revenue. They included divestment of government assets, privatisation as well as public-private partnership and other possibilities to make spending more efficient and cut down on wastage.

Meanwhile, the Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry Malaysia (ACCCIM) said there should be a two-year grace period before the GST is implemented. This was to enable businesses to adapt to the change.

ACCCIM chairman of commerce committee Koong Lin Loong said it supported the proposed GST as it would allow for further reduction in corporate and indirect taxes, which in return can attract more foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country.

"The proposed GST will provide a more broad-based tax collection and revenue if it is to replace the sales and services tax of 10 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.

"It will also provide another source of revenue for the government ... from being overdependent on returns from oil and gas, which currently contributes 40 per cent. In time we cannot depend too much on this sector," he said.

GST are being used in 146 countries, and in Southeast Asia, only Malaysia, Myanmar and Brunei do not impose GST, he added.

On ACCCIM's wish list for Budget 2011, Koong said it would like to see a reduction in taxes for small and medium enterprises from 20 per cent to 18 per cent.

Sunday, October 10, 2010


我偶爾看到一些朋友,陷在高收入的困境中,卻走不出來。他既不敢放棄高薪,又捨不得放棄高薪,但在高薪的現狀裡,工作又不見得快樂,最後只好選擇在 下班不工作的狀態中,盡量讓自己快樂。


這類陷入高所得生活中的朋友,很難和他敞開心胸去碰觸換工作的話題,因為一來這類人的自尊心很強,二來他也不太願意承認工作的現狀有困境,相反地, 他們常常以高職稱、高所得為榮、為傲。

我觀察這類朋友,往往是從基層幹起的居多。因為他是從小公司換到大公司,或者從小職員變成專業資深職員或中高階主管,因此他將高所得與多年媳婦熬成 婆視為等號,認為目前的現狀是他過去多年耕耘的成果,因此不捨得放棄。



這些朋友其實忽略去思考一個生涯規劃的困境:如果高薪能領到退休,繼續待著當然沒有問題;但如果不能呢?一份無法領到退休的薪水,會是一份穩定的薪 水嗎?

所謂無法領到退休,又有兩種狀況:第一種是公司由盛而衰、每下愈況,終至裁員或瀕臨倒閉;第二種是自己難以適應不快樂的工作,最終病倒了,或得了憂 鬱症、躁鬱症等等。

其實會讓這兩種狀況發生的原因,應該都一樣,就是---公司的經營文化出了問題,全公司(或經營層)陷入鬼迷心竅的賺錢迷思中,卻忽略了人性的正 道。

一個人在職場上,可以任勞、任怨與任謗,只要他認同或喜歡該公司的工作,但一旦他內心也無法接受公司的哲學思考與管理制度時,則只是為表面優渥薪水 而留在現狀上,無異是壓抑內心真實的想法與情感,並讓負面情緒像垃圾一樣,持續放在心房中。

這樣怎麼會對呢?人生有一種東西是無價的,那就是人生的價值與生命的意義。如果生命的意義能花錢買到,我們就不需要歷經漫長旅行與飽嚐人生酸甜苦辣 去尋找了。


我為這些曾經滿懷理想的朋友而抱憾,為他們認真工作爬到現狀卻要屈從於現狀而感到不值。人生的成就其實可以更高,只要我們願意選擇忠於內心真實的感 受,並勇敢承認內心的聲音,並順著那聲音走。那麼放棄現狀,往往只是獲得更多的開始。

很多朋友不願意承認的現狀是,會讓自己工作不快樂的主因,不是自己出問題,而是公司出狀況。公司的狀況往往先從內部核心先腐化起,而後向外擴散,讓 整間公司瀰漫自己也無法認同的氛圍。但這時候,公司獲利往往還在持續成長、躍進,並頒發出更多的福利、薪資給員工。

這就是公司成長的迷思:一間由盛而衰的公司,一開始是看不出衰退徵兆的,但衰退徵兆卻會瀰漫於公司不正常的氣氛、思維中,只有當局不迷者,才有勇氣 選擇離開。

我也認識過一些朋友,在事業的高峰選擇急流勇退,等退下來兩、三年後,其他同事眼見公司被購併或裁員遣散員工,才豎起大拇指佩服急流勇退者的高瞻遠 矚。事實上,從高薪退下來,哪有辦法高瞻遠矚呢?很多時候往往是不得已的,因為付出的代價是高所得,而到手的,常常只有一個工作良心而已。

但我認為工作良心是無價的,順著人生正道走的人,即使暫時碰到逆境,也終將柳暗花明,憑著自己的能力再次扶搖而上。最可嘆的是壓抑掉自己的良心,順 著公司的賺錢方針走,這些人不知道自己走在危險的懸厓邊,看似在所得高峰,其實恐怕是谷底邊緣。

我為陷入高所得迷思的朋友感到不值與擔憂,衷心盼望他們能想得通、看得開。其實職場領域遠比這些朋友想得寬闊,只要他們懂得退一步,則海闊天空的人 生應該不難。

王志鈞 外星地球人 


Friday, October 8, 2010

Google VS Facebook

What is RPGT?

What is RPGT?
RPGT is a tax on capital gains imposed on the disposal of a chargeable asset and this includes real property and shares in real
property companies. It is governed by the Real Property Gains Tax Act 1976.

Who is covered?It applies to both tax resident and nonresident persons who transact in real property situated in Malaysia and shares in real property companies.

What is real property?
It is land situated in Malaysia or any interest, option or right in or over such land situated in Malaysia.

What is the definition of land?
Land for RPGT purposes includes:
(i) the surface of the earth and all substances forming that surface;
(ii) the earth below the surface and substances therein;
(iii)buildings on land and anything attached to land or permanently fastened to anything attached to land;
(iv) standing timber, trees, crops and vegetation grown on land; and
(v) land covered with water.

How is RPGT computed?
In simple terms, RPGT is computed on the capital gains arising on the disposal of a chargeable asset, that is, the differential between the disposal price and the acquisition price of the real property.

Simply put:
(Disposal price - acquisition price) x RPGT rate = RPGT

The determination of the disposal price and acquisition price is set out below.

How is the disposal price determined?
The disposal price is arrived at as follows:

Consideration received xx

Less : Permitted expenses :
Enhancement cost (x)
Legal fees in defending title (x)

Less : Incidental costs :
Commission (x)
Legal fees (x)
Advertisement (x)
Disposal price xx
Permitted expenses refer to any expenses incurred wholly and exclusively on the asset after its acquisition for the purpose of enhancing or preserving its value and expenses incurred in establishing and defending title to or right over the asset. Incidental cost comprise fees, commission or remuneration paid for the professional services of a surveyor, valuer, accountant or lawyer, cost of transfer (e.g. stamp duty) and cost of advertisement to find a buyer.

How is the acquisition price determined?
The following sets out how acquisition price is determined:

Consideration paid Xx

Plus : Incidental costs :
Interest (applicable only prior to 1 January 2010) X
Stamp duty X
Legal fees and professional fees X
Advertisement X
Commission X

Less : Recoveries :
Insurance compensation (x)
Compensation for damage (x)
Deposit forfeited (x)
Acquisition price Xx

Incidental costs comprise fees, commission or remuneration paid for the professional services of a surveyor, valuer,
accountant or lawyer, cost of transfer (e.g. stamp duty), cost of advertisement to find a seller.

Recoveries refer to receipts under an insurance policy, deposits forfeited in respect of any intended disposal and compensation received for damage, destruction or depreciation of the chargeable asset.

How is the RPGT rate determined?
The rate of tax on RPGT is based on the holding period of the chargeable asset. The rate ranges from 30 per cent down to 5 per cent. There is an in-built exemption mechanism in the legislation which effectively brings the rate down to 5 per cent for all current disposals chargeable
to RPGT.

Exemptions from RPGT
RPGT exemptions currently available are as follows:
• Gain in respect of any disposal of a chargeable asset from 1 April 2007 until 31 December 2009
• Gain in respect of any disposal of a chargeable asset on or after 1 January 2010 where the disposal is made after 5
years from the date of the acquisition of the chargeable asset;
• RM10,000 or 10% of the chargeable gain, whichever is greater accruing to an individual in respect of a disposal of
a chargeable asset;
• Gain accruing to an individual who is a citizen or permanent resident of Malaysia in respect of the disposal of one private residence;
• Gain accruing to a wife who is a citizen or permanent resident of Malaysia but whose husband is neither a citizen nor a permanent resident, in respect of the disposal of one private residence owned by the wife; and
• Gains accruing to the Government, State Government or a local authority.

How to determine the acquisition date?
Generally, the acquisition date of the acquirer coincides with the disposal date of the disposer.

When is the disposal date?
Disposal date is the date of the agreement for disposal of the asset. Where there is no agreement, disposal date is the date
of completion of the disposal, i.e. the earlier of:
• date of transfer of ownership of the asset by the disposer, or
• date when the whole amount of consideration is received by the disposer.

Treatment of losses on disposal
Unutilised losses can be carried forward indefinitely except losses arising from the disposal of shares in a real property

Retention of RPGT by the acquirer
With effect from 1 January 2010, the acquirer is required to retain either 2 per cent of the total value of consideration or
the whole of the monies, whichever is lesser, and remit the retention sum to the IRB within 60 days from the date of disposal.
In certain situations, the acquirer need not withhold the retention sum as the disposer can elect not to retain and remit the retention sum by completing the Form CKHT 3.

為抑制房產泡沫形成, 5年內賣屋或需繳盈利稅30%







他和畢馬威稅務服務(KPMG Tax Services)執行董事王元興皆認為,政府或在來臨的預算案,重新落實1976年房產盈利稅法令。












what is RPGT.


消費稅(GST)未落實,公司稅料無望下調,惟政府預計從其他獎掖下手以營造有利的經商環境,如延長虧損補報(Carry Back Losses)措施。
















Thursday, October 7, 2010

Tenaga 国能马前炮之说 !!!

先参考以下新闻,有颜色 highlight 的字眼

2010財政年全年淨利有望創下歷 史第二高紀錄,達26億至27億令吉。
全年外匯賺益將寫下6億至7億令 吉,促使全年核心淨利可能介於26億至27億令吉,有望寫下史上第二佳績。


根据 2010 第三季财报: 净利 = 2808 mil (28亿)(eps 64.83仙) 2808 扣掉 668.1外汇赚益 (foreign translation gain) = 2140 mil (21.4 亿)

2140 mil (21.4 亿) = 9 个月的核心净利(core profit)

Foreign exchange gain by quater
Q1 = -45.4 mil
Q2 = 144 mil
Q3 = 569 mil
Q4 = 200 mil ???
Core Profit by quater
Q1 = 742.9 mil
Q2 = 857.1 mil
Q3 = 540.2 mil
Q4 = 600 mil (取最低)
2010 core profit = 2740 mil (大约27亿,符合专家预测)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
net profit (mil) 2162 4067 2600 853 3608
core profit (mil) 1837 3582 2566 2092 2740
eps (sen) 50.44 93 59.84 21.15 82.7
dividen(sen) 14 36.3 20 16.3

2010 eps 82.7sen 我马前炮乱仙的。
全年股息会有 30 sen 吗,不知道。。。

意以目前收市价 8.88 (取888有华人发财之)
PE = 8.88 / 0.827 = 10.73


業績評論 2010-10-01 19:04
(吉隆坡1日訊)馬幣走強及煤炭價企穩,國家能源(TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組)2010財政年全年淨利有望創下歷史第二高紀錄,達26億至27億令吉。





益資利認為,由於鋼鐵冶煉活動減少,導致7月電力供應放緩,僅寫下按年成長6%。不過,在美國多項建築工程及中國縮減鋼鐵產能下,相信鋼鐵領域正處於上升 週期高峰。



益資利表示,近期股價走低是投資者增持股票的機會。目前,國能的外資持股是11%,相信在補貼合理化建議通過後,電費獲調升,將吸引更多外資進場,給予 “買進”評級,目標價是10令吉10仙。



Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Topglove 2010 Q4 业绩报告重点

2010 Q3 gross profit margin = 14.4%
2010 Q4 gross profit margin = 6.5% (drop 54%)

下季 gross profit margin 应该会更少。

Balance sheet 目前接近 0 负债
total cash 大于 total liability

马币走强,接下来 gross profit margin 和eps 会越来越少,暂时不看好。

2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 21.6%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = 17.8%
2010 Q3 gross profit margin = ????% (I estimate 8.1%)

2009 Q4 gross profit margin = 35%
2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 25.8%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = ????%

to be continue...

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Southeast Asia drinks sector sparkles

September 02, 2010
Coca Cola looks to be going it alone in Malaysia. — Reuters pic
SINGAPORE, Sept 2 — Global drinks firms, thirsty for acquisitions to expand their offerings and reach, are eyeing assets in Southeast Asia, as tough regulatory hurdles quash their interest in giants China and India.

Some deals are already in the bag, with Kirin Holdings recently snapping up a stake in 127-year old Singapore-listed Fraser & Neave (F&N) and Asahi’s US$322 million (RM1.03 billion) purchase of Australian fruit juice maker P&N, to combine with its Schweppes drinks unit.

More mergers and strategic tie-ups are brewing, with global players expected to eye alliances with companies such as Unilever Indonesia and Malaysia’s Mamee-Double Decker, maker of the popular Mamee noodles.

“There are lots of compelling reasons to expand in Southeast Asia,” says Chris Wong, Senior Investment Manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in Singapore.

“China is not an easy market to navigate; whether with regulation or distribution networks. India is a closed market,” Wong said referring to strict rules in India on foreign firms operating there.

The soft drinks market in the Asean (Association of South East Asian Nations) region, which includes Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, is expected to grow by more than 40 per cent in the next five years to US$17 billion by 2014, according to market research firm Euromonitor International.

While the Chinese and Indian markets are forecast to grow by more than 70 per cent each by 2014, Southeast Asia’s beverage market is viewed as less risky with potential of its own, thanks to a growing class of wealthy and brand-conscious consumers that compares with saturated markets in the west and Japan.

Coca-Cola, the world’s No. 1 soft drinks firm, cancelled plans last year to buy China’s Huiyuan Juice after the deal was blocked on anti-trust grounds, encouraging drinks companies to look at other parts of Asia for investment.

“Now is not the time to increase investments or expand (into China); rather the focus is Southeast Asia,” Senji Miyake, president of Japan’s No. 1 brewer, Kirin Holdings, said at news conference last month.

Analysts expect global drinks firms to seek more mergers or tie-ups with local companies which have strong brands and distribution networks.

“While it is hard to pinpoint the right candidate, generally those local companies with strong brands and unique distribution and material sourcing strength could be attractive,” said Euromonitor Senior Beverages Analyst Hope Lee.

Kirin bought its stake in Fraser & Neave for US$953 million to bolster its soft drinks and dairy products businesses in Southeast Asia.

Asahi Breweries President Naoki Izumiya has said the firm would have US$9.5 billion on tap for acquisitions over the next five years, with a focus on Asia and Oceania. Last week it bought Australian juice maker P&N.

Malaysia’s CI Holdings, which owns the licence to manufacture Pepsi, may also look to expand, say analysts.

“CI Holdings, F&N, Mamee are some of the bigger boys looking for well-run companies in the small cap space, but there aren’t many and those that sell demand high prices,” said Khair Mirza, senior analyst at Maybank Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur.

Coca-Cola’s bottling and distribution arrangement with F&N Holdings Bhd, meanwhile, expires next year. It is setting up its own plant in Malaysia, but there has so far been no sign of any local tie-ups.

Beyond Southeast Asia, Australia, with a beer market that offers some of the highest profit margins in the brewing world, is also on the radar screens of global drinks firms, with Foster’s beer unit at the centre of takeover talk.

Analysts say Australian food manufacturer Goodman Fielder could be a possible target for an Asian drinks predator.

“The advantage of that is Goodman Fielder would have fairly good ties into Australian grain buying which might help foreign buyers who would want that sort of a relationship with wheat sellers,” said Daniel Nelson, investment analyst at Constellation Capital Management in Sydney.

Japanese drinks firms have an added incentive in that a strong currency lowers the price of targets in yen terms.

Kirin, which owns a 48 per cent stake in Philippine brewer San Miguel had described its business in Southeast Asia as “weak”. Analysts say the F&N move shows Kirin is now on the offensive after dropping a largely defensive attempt to merge with Japan rival Suntory earlier in 2010.

Merger talk may be one reason why food and beverage stocks are held at a premium; investors are paying 24.4 times for the earnings of such shares in emerging Asia-Pacific versus a price multiple of 17.9 in all sectors, Thomson Reuters data shows.

Exposure to a consumption story that is helping Malaysia’s beer market grow at an annual rate of 4-5 per cent, compared with 0-1 per cent in the US beer market, is another reason. Vietnam’s beer market is growing by around five per cent a year, according to CLSA.

“Whether it’s beer or food, the trend is the same. Everyone wants a bit of the emerging market story,” said Wong. — Reuters

Sunday, October 3, 2010








你要知道,假若她不喜欢你,你根本就没有本事让她哭 泣,即使让她生气也不会超过2天!


于 是,你们时常争吵,你认为她脾气不好,她认为你不够迁就她……

于是,你们总是冷战,你以为她不喜欢你,她以为你不在乎 她……


要 知道,凄美依然是美的一种,并且美的绚丽悲凉而沧桑,那是更加的美~


因 为她喜欢你,所以才会生你的气;


你可知道,每个 女孩的心都是水晶做的,晶莹剔透,很容易就碰伤摔碎。

你可知道,每个女孩都是不设防的,你那么轻易就闯进她的心,走的时候 却只留下伤害!


她 会很矜持,她会很骄傲,她会很冷淡,她总是嘴里说着“你走开”,心里却一直叫你留下。

请竖起你的耳朵,也请打开你的心,去 听她内心真正的呼唤吧,而不是她嘴里的口是心非!

她会看着你转身,然后她跟着你转身;当侧身而过的时候,你看不见她的泪, 那是滂沱在心里的泪~


如 果你真的喜欢她,请你去听听她内心的声音,那是一种呐喊!请你张开臂膀拥抱她!

在爱情世界里,你们总是彼此伤害着,彷佛这 样才能证明自己爱得激烈,爱到轰轰烈烈!


你 爱她,她爱你,如此就已经足够,不要试图让彼此受伤,让彼此更加脆弱悲伤。

你们彼此相爱需要的是温暖、是幸福、是甜蜜、是 快乐,而不是伤害。


要知 道,当你离去的时候,你的眼睛起了雾,她的眼角泛着泪光……

越是安静,战火就越传,这是冷战,也是彼此的伤害。无论以后怎 么的复合,那些伤口是曾经存在的,是你怎么也抹不去的……


她 喜欢你,她绝对不会拒绝你的拥抱,她只会害怕你的冷漠、转身的无声安静。

请记住,相爱的人不要宣战,因为带来的伤害超出你 的预计。


那 么她所有的小性子、所有的坏脾气、所有的臭毛病在你眼里都是撒娇。

也请记住,她喜欢你,需要的不是你真的转身,她嘴里说着 的也不是她真心话。




文:刘丰宁 图:百度

在犹太人看来,宇宙与生活是相依生息。所谓“宇宙大法则”,它是以一个正方形的内切圆关系计算出来的。假设一个正方形面积 是100,那么,它的内切圆面积78.5,剩下的面积即21.5。以整数计算表达,便是78:22。

空气中的气体比例中,氮气占78%,而氧气占22%。人体的比重中,也是由78%的水及22%的其他物质所构成的。这个 78:22的数据,成为人力不可抗抿的宇宙大自然的法则,人类不能违背这种法则而生存发展,试想,如果空气中氮气占20%,人类将不能在这样的空气中生存 下去;如果把人体的水份降至占60%,那定然会干枯而死。因此,犹太人认定78:22是个永恒的法则,世界上的一切事物都是按照78:22来进行排列和组 合的。另外,犹太人已经洞察到,22%的人拥有78%的财富,而大多数人只得到少数的生活费。因此钱在有钱人手里,所以只要和有钱人做生意赚有钱人的钱, 就可以快赚钱和赚大钱。

睿智的犹太人结合“宇宙 大法则”的原理,并在经商中的充分运用产生了非常明显的绩效,他们认为:


女人是金钱的实际拥有者,例如一个男人和一个女人在餐厅就餐,如果是男人结帐说明他们是情侣;如果是AA制说明他们是同 事;如果是女人结帐则可以证明他们是夫妻。因为人类的通行规则就是----金钱围绕着女人花。男人是世界的中心,女人是男人的中心。男人 总是围着女人转并讨好女人,男人一旦结婚,女人就成了家里的财政部长。于是男人们一辈子就在不停的赚钱,女人们就不停的花钱。俗话说:征服世界用男人,征 服男人用女人,征服女人用钻石!对此犹太人的总结是:男人是挣钱的人,赚他们的钱难!女人是花钱的人,赚她们的钱容易!


犹太 人经商绝不做薄利多销的买卖,却只做厚利适销的生意。古今中外的生意经都有薄利多销的经营招法,但犹太商人认为进行薄利竞争,就如同把脖子套上绞索,是愚 蠢之至。

犹太商人认为:卖一件商品赚一份利润,有利于保持市场稳定,推动企业进步。这样,既可省了各种经营费用,并很快可以按高价 卖出另外两件商品。而以低价一下卖了三件商品,市场已饱和了,你想多销也无人问津了,利润起码比高价出卖者少了很多,并毁了市场后劲。最关键的是犹太人获 得了合理利润之后,就可以进行技术改造和新产品研发,从而成为一个行业的领导者。

为了避免其他商人的薄利多销的冲击,他们宁愿经营昂贵的商品,不经营低价的商品。为此,世界上经营珠宝、钻石等首饰的商人 中,犹太人居多。因为经营珠宝类的项目是资本密集型项目,利润高门槛也高。犹太商人厚利适销,营销策略,是把有钱人作为着眼点的。名贵的珠宝、钻石、金 饰,只有富裕的人才买得起。而有钱人讲究身份,对价格就不会那么计较。俗话说价贱无好货,这句话在富有者印象最深的。犹太商人就是这样抓住消费者的心理, 如美国最大的百货公司之一梅西百货公司,它出售的日用百货品总要比其他一般商店同类商品价高50%,它的生意仍比别人要好。

犹太商人的高价厚利营销策略,表面上是以有钱人为目标,事实上是一种巧妙的生意经。讲 究身份、崇尚富有的心理在西方社会乃至东方社会是比比皆是。在富贵阶层流行的东西,很快就会在中下层社会流行起来。

据犹太人统计和分析,在富有阶层流行的商品,一般在两年左右时间就会在中下层社会流行开来。道理很简单,介于富裕阶层与下 层社会之间的中等收入人士,他们总想进入富裕阶层,由于心理的驱使,为了满足心理的需求或出于面子原因,总要向富裕者看齐。为此,他们又购买的高贵新品。 而下层社会的人士,往往力不从心,价格贵昂的产品消费不起,但崇尚心理作用总会驱使一些爱慕富贵的人行动,他们也不惜代价而购买。这样的连锁反应,贵昂的 商品也成为社会流行品,如金银珠宝首饰现在不是已经成为各阶层妇女的最爱吗?彩电、音响等原来属高贵产品,现在也进入了平民百姓家庭;小轿车也成为中西方 大众的必需品。

宇宙大法则不仅仅在经商 上给我们指明了方向,在管理上、在销售业绩上、在夫妻关系经营上、甚至在育儿上都有课借鉴的作用,您想到了吗?

冷眼分享集: 股市是金矿还是坟墓?

2010/10/02 12:18:45 PM

西方股市流行着一句话:“华尔街尽头是坟墓”。到底这句话是象征性的说法还是确有其事,我没有去深究,因此也就无法确定真伪。但是,有一点是肯定的,葬身 股市的人多过在股市翻身的人。

为了找出在股市中到底有多少人赚钱,我曾分别跟5位资深股票经纪晤谈,他们都是从业二十年,顾客不下1000名的成功经纪,在这段时间内,他们数度亲历牛 市与熊市,目睹股市沧桑,对他们的顾客在股市中的表现,可说瞭如指掌。




在过去几个月中,在《南洋商报》的安排及各地中华总商会的邀请下,我到新山、峇株巴辖、居銮、关丹和哥打峇鲁发表演讲,与股友分享投资心得,入场都是免费 的。



“亏本的请举手!”结果是举手如林,亏本的比赚钱的起码多10倍。我同意这样的调查未必可靠,因为那些出席的,恐怕都是亏本者,那些赚钱的不会出席,也没 有出席的必要,但一项难以否定的事实是:在股市中亏本的人肯定比赚钱的人多。



但是,有一些人,的确藉股票投资致富,尽管人数占少数。我也询问那5位资深经纪,这些成功的投资者,是怎样投资的?他们的答案大同小异:他们都是严肃的投 资者,他们多数在股市低潮时买进好股,长期持有。







将股市变成坟墓或金矿,往往只是一念之差,如果投资者抱着“赌”的心态进场的话,股市迟早会变成他的坟墓。如果他们是抱着投资的态度进场的话,股市可能成 为他的金矿。

我说“可能”,而不是“绝对”,是因为除了正确的态度之外,还要加上别的因素,才有可能成功。例如即使抱着投资的态度买进,若选股不当,或耐心不够,功亏 一篑,也还是挖不到黄金。




股票投资者亦如此,在股市中亏了本,不是埋怨股市“黑手”,就是埋怨经纪给错“贴士”,却从不检讨自己失败的原因。这类投资者不会吸收失败的经验,也从不 自我检讨自己,对他们来说,股市永远是坟墓。


股市到底是坟墓或金矿,并非由股市,而是由你决定,主动权其实是操在你手中。假如你认真及耐心投资的话,股市可能是你的金矿,假如你死性不改,继续投机取 巧的话,股市肯定是你的坟墓。


Saturday, October 2, 2010

头脑里的 “模” (思考方式)

转自 tan81 的分享






有时候,我和你讲东西,不是要 Shoot 你,可是你会以为我在 Shoot 你。
为什么? 因为我们的模在作怪。我讲着的,可能是你的模里,完全找不到,

可能你还不相信我不是在 Shoot 你这件事。
很简单,我Shoot你,我会有什么好处? 我的目标是要财务自由,我多 Shoot 你,
我会更快达到财务自由吗? 相不相信,就由得你们了。我只是要表明,自己没有必要浪费这么多时间去 Shoot人的。



沿用自己熟悉的思考模式,有什么问题? 最大的问题,就是妨碍自己的学习!

举个例子,如果你来聚会,存心想要拿股票的 Tips ,当晚没有讲到任何Tips,
你的模就会开始作怪,告诉你,你在浪费时间,很疲倦了,快点去拿Tips 等等。



可是, 你现在的生活,却是这个模的结果/产物。



为何会让自己没有了时间? 因为他的模设立了一个方程式,


可能你的模,现在又告诉你,这些我都懂。懂,是没有用的。 看看你自己现在在做什么。


有很多人,坚持自己的选股原则,策略,方式等。好了,这么多年的学习/坚持,你的长期年均回酬是多少,资本增长到什么程度? 如果客观上,你和顶尖高手一样,或许你可以满意了。




如果牛市上升了20%, 而你的投资回报/资产增加的速度,没有达到这个高度,
你还要相信自己的模告诉你的事情吗? 真的 Everything Ok?

为何他做到,你做不到? 因为你的模和他不一样。



那是因为他自己种下的因。他没有在熊市的时候买这家公司,他没有在上个周期下跌的时候买入,他没有分批买入等等。这家公司,并不是他第一次面对被关起来打 的股票了。为何会重复? 因为他的模就是这样。

他的模告诉他,Ok 的,没有问题的,因为你换的是好马。

有人喜欢持有小刀锯大树的小公司。几年下来,却看到高股息的垄断公司,回报斐然。自己的小刀,还是在锯小树。他的模告诉他,不用紧,这些高股息的股价已经 很高了,我们等下一次的熊市来买入。下一次熊市来的时候,他还是不会买入这些龙头股的。为什么?因为那时他还是发现小刀锯大树的小公司,回报比较可观。我 们还是不会在他的组合看到龙头股/高股息的出现。

失败是成功之母, 是骗人的。尤其是你根本不认为自己失败的时候。



就像我以上所说的,先开始了解你自己。你很Lost 的原因,就是你自己也不了解自己。



你去做了Sales, 是否看到了很多不一样的新东西? 虽然你的模未必允许它们进来。




这个就是 IPO 那么好赚的原因了。

IPO 等于是把股票卖给成千上万你所不认识的人。



我们出生是白纸,接受最多的是来自家庭(父母),所以从前人说“龙生龙,风生风,老鼠生的会打洞”,为什么有钱的越有钱?穷的越穷?答案是“人类都是模仿 大人的”,不管对方是好是坏。对我们来说是没有分别的。对错是当人类有认知后衍生的解说,也是社会的认同标准。

当我们的小的时候,我们的思想被灌输某种讯息,不过好坏我们是100%接受,我们没有分辨的能力,开始只有记忆,把所有听,读,写,看的记录在脑袋里。当 资讯开始丰富时,我们会问为什么?问是因为不明白,可是有些父母是没有回答孩子的问题,其中之一是父母本身也不明白,所以多数是以不要问为结局可是却在孩 子的脑海里种下了,发问=父母生气,所以不发问=父母不生气。严重的情况是,不发问=老师不生气,老板不生气,爱人不生气。。。。。谁也 不生气,自己却生自己的气,可是这造成了自我学习的缺陷,我们没有办法从其他人那里得到想要的讯息。方法被自己封闭了。这就是我们会有 的“模”。有的人是一辈子背着“模”到终老。是可悲的一件事。

当我们已经习惯本身的“模”后,我们会遇到一件非常严重的事,那是我们不能超越我们自我设下的“限制”,有时我们在做某些事时,会发现用回一样的做法来投 资,我们很难有更大的回报,有的话就是幸运。通常是维持在不改变的范围。

模是很可怕的,人类是种种不同功能的系统,系统还没完全开放完整时,我们是可以一直的修改直到运用,可是当完整后要修改是一件非常困难的事。我们听过舒适 区,人的系统完成后也有舒适区,当要改变我们的舒适区是。人的系统会自我保护,会给身体讯息从而不去改变当时的系统(如:害怕,害羞,紧张)。这是人与生 俱来的生存法则,是很难抗拒的。所以,当我们做出改变是,我们会害怕,觉得有不好的事发生,我们会有负情绪的想法。好似做了对本身有伤害。可是如果我们知 道目前的方式是不正确的,一定要改变。不改变结果是必然的,也是佛家说的“因果”。

好似我,小时候的我的想法是不发问,发问代表笨,不可以太展现自己,这个是骄傲,(好脸),做人要低调,最好是没有人懂你是谁。可能在中国,二战时期太高 调会失去性命,现在反而变成了华人的思想。我不否认它有其一定的帮助,可是太过就是一个问题。所以,小的我是那样的人物,走过你也不知道,来了也不懂。好 似轻轻的来,轻轻地走,不带走一片云彩.这个性格变成了社会的致命伤!我因此会失去许多机会,害怕去做一些别人认为不可以的事物,害怕犯错,害羞。

“模”的影响是很大的,我们目前的所作所为或多或少是来自本身所接受或建立的系统,人的系统是有生命的,要改变就得把它完全的移除出系统,同时看法新的系 统来取代它。旧的系统并没有移除之不过是放进橱里,hibernate而已。新的系统开始也是不习惯的,但.....人类的细胞是有记忆的,当我们重复多 次以后我们会完全的解释新的系统也不会以其它有冲突。这就好比NLP的重复21次理念。我相信是相同的。

要改变想法,首先是相信新的“模”所带来的好处是旧有完全无法给予的,这也是一个借口可以让身体接受新的系统。我们好 比是公司里的总裁,要做一个重大的决定(裁一位老臣子,让更有价值的人代替),是需要得到大家一致认同才会进行的顺利。仓促的行动反而会手忙脚乱而且也不 成事。一定要然大家相信是可行的,同时是对大家(其它系统)有益,信念是必要的,不过不是没改变坐着等改变,这是没意义的,因为本身系统完全不接受这种行 为。再怎么做也是白费。

行动是把新系统变得更完整的融入人体里,让它成为潜意识模式,完成后我们也不会在担心可不可以,会不会忘记。当我们学 会了驾车,除了技术需要提升。基本的是不会忘记的的道理是一样的。

最后,我们不可以选择小时候学习的知识,讯息,行为,想法可是我们缺有一样跟其它动植物所没有的,就是”选择“。我们当完整后还可以选择改变,这就是人类 的奥秘。


现金流 ??????



cashflow现金流,如何拥有源源不断的被动收入,是我们应该注重的;Capital Gain是我们的Bonus,太注重会掉入被大鳄吃的游戏里面

被动收入(现金流)的强大会让我们安全的保护我们的资本,让我们安心。蛋散兄的free cash flow是我所漏掉的沧海遗珠,也是巴菲特所注重的。我呼吁大家可以的话来了解Free Cash Flow的云算。只要一间公司拥有充足的现金,同时超过债务。是非常安全的。

接着另一个分享开拓了新的想法,把资产扩大(Asset Expend)也可以说是Portfolio Return,这个适合用在当我们拥有大数额的资产时。当我们有足够的资产(现金,房产)时,比如二百万资产时,如果回酬是5%一年我们将会得到100千 的现金,这个解说大的资产我们建议最求被动回酬(Dividend Yield)会比较安全。以及保本的理念和巴菲特不谋而合。这个也是以后所注重的。要如何用最短的时间里扩大资产(Asset),寻找合理的回酬 (8-10%),是我的功课也是我财富的系统。

如何得到源源不断的现金流,如何增加现金流。这个是我最有兴趣的课题,这里是以房产来解释,可是原来是可以运用在股票,房产,生意里。是一个概念,也是正 确的运用手法。现金流是公司的血液,人没血会死,缺少血会病,身体虚弱要花钱看医生。相对的,公司也一样面对相同的道理。分别是人体的血已经有系统在运 作,公司现金流系统却要自己开发。

投资在股票我们可以分成投机,和投资.可是现在我看起来投机是Capital Gain, 投资是Cash Flow. 房产也有相似的就是炒房价是Capital Gain, 房租是Cash Flow.为什么大多数的人趋向于Capital Gain?原因很简单,块钱。人是喜欢快的,同时最好是马上看到成绩,多数人,不喜欢等待。这造就了市场的分割,而真正赚到钱是“等待”的人。不过在等待 的同时会从投资里得到固定收入/现金流房产是租金,股票是股息。产品是不同不过做法是一样的。我们会利用基本面来看公司,在房产我们直接看许多房 子,auction, 掉广告牌,agent.都是基本面的方法之一。

当看到一间符合目标的房子,我们也要购买在合理的价位(margin of Safety),我们可以压价,或其他方式来用最低的钱买到心目中的房子。同时我们也要注意租金是否会影响我们目前的现金流。比如说房子A,的贷款每个月 是RM400,房租是RM600.扣除了贷款我们会拥有RM200的现金流。当我们拥有了10间类似的房产我们就拥有了RM2000每个月的被动收入。当 我们重复的做这个买卖时,我们将会财务自由。相对的,我们也要付出时间,经历,考验来得到成果。我们要面对不同性格的租户,如何收租金,细节及等等。这个 就让投资房产的大大来分享。当我们的现金流越强大,我们能够购买的房子就越多。

有一句话打动了我对房产的信心,就是capital gain是有限制的,而现金流是无限的。这句话这么说,我们不可能可以买完所有capital gain的房产,但却可以无限量的购买房子。却没有泡沫的风险。这个投资房产的理念跟基本面完全类似,也开拓了进军房产的心。

9.可以利用别人的时间(Other People Time),金钱(Other People Money);和乐而不为

最后说到为什么许多人没有得到他们应得的回报,原因是不肯行动。人骨子里是有懒惰基因,所以不行动是正常人;行动的反而是不正常的人。这 就是为什么95%正常人争夺5%的财富,而5%的不正常人拥有95%的财富。 那你要正常还是不正常呢?自己选择吧。我一直都是不正常的。